India Retold

During the Lok Sabha elections of 2009, to the surprise of many, he took Sonia Gandhi's slave-appointee, Dr. Manmohan Singh, on in a direct Presidential-type fight. In doing so, he took her, his and BJP’s principal adversary, out of the fight and put her on a pedestal with a de facto clean chit. With Sonia so anointed saint and the scrupulously clean Singh declared Enemy No.1, a BJP victory that seemed near certain before the Nuclear Deal fiasco in Parliament in 2008 became a humiliating defeat.

Despite that crushing rout, LK Advani refused to quit -- theatrics apart – and make way for new blood to reinvigorate a demoralised party. It is possible that the coterie that had grown around him, that had little or no mass following and that drew strength primarily from proximity to him, persuaded him to stay on so that it could complete what it had begun.

This group, as I understand as a complete outsider, is largely responsible for what Arun Shourie calls ‘homogenisation’ of the BJP -- the metamorphosing of it into a networked value clone of the Congress party -- and contributed significantly to its defeat. Under Advani, it continues to call the shots and is driving the BJP into a canyon, getting out from which will need a leader of exceptional skills and ability.

In 2011, Sonia Gandhi’s UPA 2 government stands exposed as one executing possibly the greatest plunder in India’s history in so short a span of time. It’s raining scams like never before, involving amounts that only a year back were not even conceivable. Manmohan Singh remains the nominal Prime Minister whom no member of the cabinet listens to or gives a damn about. The real power, as the whole wide world knows, remains in the hands of Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul who is not PM yet only because he is convinced that he is not good enough for the job, and afraid that once he gets into the hot seat, the cool, dark shade that Singh provides for him to revel in will no longer be available, and the scorching heat will burn him before his time.

The failures of the Sonia government are so colossal and unpardonable that had there been a credible opposition in place, Congress leaders would not have been strutting around as brazenly as they are. Nor would have Sonia and Rahul been allowed to remain un-singed on pedestals beyond accountability and responsibility for what minions serving at their pleasure are doing. Tragically for India, that is the sorry state that this nation finds itself in today primarily because the Advani-led coterie that runs the BJP has failed to do what it should have as a responsible and responsive opposition.

In the middle of the din created by Raja’s arrest for the 2G scam, new scams, CBI inquiries and what now is evidently going to a ‘fixed’ JPC into the 2G scam, LK Advani has again shot the BJP in the foot and, on a silver platter, given a clean chit to Sonia Gandhi that even her most ardent supporters would not have dreamt of. In the process he also has, in one stroke, trashed the assiduous efforts of a section of his own party, manifestly not a part of the coterie, that had come up with a detailed report on black money stashed by Indians abroad.

Note the chronology. The report of the black money task force was released on February 01. On February 15, Sonia Gandhi wrote to Advani expressing her “personal distress” at the allegations – which she denied -- that she and Rajiv had bank accounts abroad. Within three days, Advani shot out a reply saying “I am happy you have categorically denied” them and adding, “I deeply regret the distress caused to you.”

Had these allegations been entirely unfounded or had never been made earlier, Advani’s express clean chit and apology would have been understandable. But, not only have they been made regularly for a long time, beginning with an article in a Swiss journal way back in 1991, they have been made publicly even on national television by many Indians from time to time. But for almost two decades, Sonia kept mum; neither did she deny these allegations nor did she say they caused her distress.

What prompted her to respond to the report of the task force with such alacrity? What drove Advani to do what he did almost the moment he got her letter? Would Advani not have known that the Congress party would milk such an unqualified clean chit to death, absolving, as it does, its Supreme leader of not just past wrongdoings but also making her appear spotlessly clean in the middle of all the muck that she has allowed to flow for the last six years? Would it not have struck him that her denial was in the present tense, that she, in effect, was also claiming that she was not receiving any pelf, and that he was certifying to the Indian public that she was indeed speaking the truth?

If Advani did not understand the ramifications of what he was writing, then he should gracefully drive himself into oblivion, and those responsible for drafting it publicly driven out of the BJP. If he did read and comprehend what he was signing, then the matter is even more serious.

Then the needle of suspicion points to the possibility that he and his coterie stand seriously compromised personally and that Sonia holds the key. This also helps explain their consistent reluctance to blame Sonia for anything and their limiting their attacks to her dummy PM who has displayed despicable lack of spine in standing up to her, and who has let her thugs plunder this country fearlessly. Since he will not be Congress' PM candidate in the next elections, hitting him makes no sense because it does only one thing: it enhances the images of Sonia and Rahul and conceals their monumental failures that should have seen them on the street by now.

The BJP has already paid a heavy price for these follies that can best be attributed to compulsion/complicity, and its credibility is at a new low. The longer this lot holds the reins of power in the BJP, the more grievous damage it will inflict on the party, indeed the whole country.

I have no idea who the leaders of the coterie that needs to be dismantled pronto are. But, if one pay attention to the names that NDTV, virtually the Congress party’s own channel, speaks favourably of as BJP’s PM candidates, then only two names emerge: Arun Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj, with the former being its first choice by many a mile. As per The Pioneer, owned and edited by BJP MP Chandan Mitra, even Ambika Soni spoke of them in response to questions on Advani's apology. Coincidentally, they are also among the most homogenised of the next lot of leaders.

The BJP may have some hard choices to make.
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More than 5000 years ago, the Mayans of Central America designed what is known as the Long Calendar to last 5125.36 years. It began on Aug 13, 3114 BC and will end on December 21, 2012. While some say the world will end then, according to many prophesies, something important will happen at that time. One Age will end and a new one will begin.

The Mayan calendar sprang up in my mind today morning on reading a news report that in the 2012 Assembly elections of Uttar Pradesh, the Congress party will be devastated, Bihar will be repeated. For a party that did better than anyone expected in UP and nationally in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the vertical drop is as stunning as it was unexpected only a few months back.

Suddenly, skeletons are tumbling out of the proverbial cupboard almost every day, shocking a nation already gaping in disbelief into a surreal numbness. The sheer scale of the plunder and the disdain with which the Congress party is continuing to dismiss the avalanche of charges in a manner that would be unthinkable in any other country, seem to suggest that India is headed towards some sort of a climactic event, without which there appears, as of now, little hope of any serious corrective measures being put in place, and no possibility of criminals who rule this nation being put out of business and into prison.

Sonia Gandhi, the autocratic President of the Congress party who has made the office her own for life, and who, along with her son, rules the nation by proxy, has turned India almost on its head and disembodied its soul. It is not by accident that India’s plunder has reached unprecedented and unacceptable levels under their careful watch. It is undoubtedly Sonia Gandhi's encouragement and protection that has enabled ministers and officials to do what they would never otherwise have dared, what their conscience would have, perhaps, never allowed them to do. To my mind the manner in which former Andhra Chief Minister YSR Reddy was allowed to loot many billions, and given direct privileged access to 10 Janpath as a reward, sent out the loud message that India was ripe to be plundered again.

You cannot loot a nation and expect that no one will get to know. Nor can you sink below the Nadir and think you will get away with it. Unfortunately, so far the Congress has managed to save itself primarily because there is a serious leadership failure in the opposition, particularly in its principal opponent, the BJP. The failure of its leaders to get the Congress off its high horse is nothing short of monumental. Not one among them has managed to connect with the people, not one has inspired the confidence that a real, honest alternative would have with ease.

This stalemate cannot continue for long. Out of this vacuum and abyss something new has to emerge, if India wants to keep its tryst with destiny.

In 2012, the Mayan calendar ends. But, as my Twitter friend Centerofright brought to my notice, after the obliteration of the Congress, it is the 'Maya' calendar that will prevail in UP: as per the survey, Mayawati will storm back to power. Strange coincidence, seven oceans apart.

If the Congress party does meet its effective demise in UP – the lizard tail will try and fake for some more time -- then there is no way that the Central government will survive 2012. Rats, sensing defeat, will desert Sonia Gandhi. Some whistle blowers hiding in fear might even muster enough courage to pick up the nails needed to shut the coffin for good. The dynasty may well have to take a hurried flight out of India. Who knows what else might happen?

At the very least, Indians will get a shot at choosing a new national government. If the Mayan calendar is right, it will mark the beginning of a new age. Will India’s own Maya, the dalit leader who has shown remarkable tenacity and political skill, usher in the big change? Or will it be Narendra Modi, the solitary political leader who has displayed the vision, grit, single-mindedness and integrity needed to put India into a higher all-round orbit? Or will our voters again fail to see through the ploy of plunderers and vote them back to power? Let us see what answers we have on December 21, 2012.
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Egypt is in turmoil. A dictator is on his way out and there is great uncertainty and fear about what will happen after him. At one end of the spectrum are those who believe that after decades of oppressive rule democracy will triumph. At the other extreme we have those who see Islamists claiming the country after the dust settles.

A stable, secular, non-confrontationist democracy is what the whole world would want to see not just in Egypt but in the rest of the Arab world. But is Egypt headed that way, or is it more likely to land on the slippery slope that Pakistan finds itself on today?

In July 2010, the Pew Global Attitudes Project Report about Pakistan came up with disturbing figures about the extent to which Pakistan had become radicalised, thanks in no small measure to the ideological and political thrust imparted by its leaders, military and civil. I had then written a piece on its findings which were largely ignored since they did not fit in with the picture that some analysts had been painting. It was evident from the report that Pakistan slide into religious extremism was real and dangerous. A few months later, Punjab Governor Salman Taseer’s assassination by his body guard for opposing the blasphemy law -- and the reactions that followed -- rudely awoke everyone save a few die hard romantics, and raised real worries about Pakistan imploding and plunging into a dangerous and violent Islamist abyss.

What does Pew tell us about Egypt? Surprisingly, there are some striking similarities with Pakistan that are almost ominous. That being so, are we right in assuming that the demonstrators who have taken over Tahrir Square in Cairo are actually looking for a Western-style democracy? Or is the Muslim Brotherhood, believed by some to be the force behind the unrest, likely to succeed in turning the country into an ‘Only Islam’ state?

The first and extremely significant Pew finding is that an overwhelming 83% -- the highest in the world -- Pakistanis and Egyptians hold a ‘very unfavourable’ opinion of the United States. Understandable in the case of Pakistanis because of America’s invasion of Afghanistan; but what has rankled the Egyptians so much? Does such a strong dislike for the US also translate – in conjunction with other factors – into some sort of a rejection of secular and friendly democracy too?

Some answers may lie in the figures that follow. Figures for Pakistan are in brackets.

• Role of Islam 95% (88) of those who feel Islam is playing large role in politics think it is good, while 80% (79) of those who think it is playing a small role think it is bad. Islam must play a much bigger role.

• Traditional Muslim practices 82% (82) favor stoning adulterers to death; 77% (82) favour chopping off hands of robbers; 86% (76) want death for those who leave Islam.

• Struggle between modernisers and fundamentalists Only 31% (44)see a struggle between modernisers and fundamentalists and 59% (28) of those side with fundamentalists. Pakistanis surprise positively here.

• Democracy 59% (44) prefer democracy to other types of government; 22% (15) believe under certain conditions a non-democratic government can be preferable.

Ayaan Hirsi Ali, who was once a member of the Muslim Brotherhood and knows the dynamics first hand, thinks it is inevitable that the the organisation will win the September election and that the leaderless, secular democratic forces that have swept one tyranny aside could easily succumb to another. Fareed Zakaria, on the other hand, is convinced that fears of an Egyptian theocracy are vastly overblown and that democracy could work: ”The nation has seen both Mubarak and Iran’s Mullahs and wants neither.” Had Zakaria looked further eastwards, he may have been less sanguine: Pakistan has seen both Iran’s Mullahs and Afghanistan’s Taliban but is still heading straight down that Islamist path.

Are theocracy and democracy completely mutually exclusive as many seem to suggest? Are they really two opposite poles in geo-political and geo-strategic terms? If they were, the US would have not been backing dictators in areas and countries where democracy was, and remains, in danger of seamlessly slipping into unacceptable hands, to say the least. Sure it has made many blunders in the process. But what's the guarantee that the alternatives would have been better for the world?

Pakistan, lest we forget, is a democracy. But it is not secular, has never been. On the contrary, it has been sliding down the Islamist slope for decades and today finds itself firmly in its grasp, future bleak, its very survival in question. When a closet Talibani like Imran Khan, who openly supported handing over Swat Valley to the Taliban and their medieval system of justice, admits to Barkha Dutt that the “situation in Pakistan in not just bad; it is much worse,” little room is left for doubt about what we are facing.

India, bereft of a strategic vision and thereby plans to impact other nations in its supreme national interest, often fails look beyond the idea of democracy, as if it is an end in itself. Its reactions to the developments in Eqypt are, not surprisingly, marked by benign disinterest befitting a non-player who wants to occupy an imaginary and meaningless high moral ground that no other nation has any time for.

But the Arab world, the West and the US have their ears to the ground. They know that the Tahrir Square quake has the potential to shake, disturb and disrupt their world and the global order like nothing has in the past few decades. Caught almost totally by surprise and rattled by nightmare scenarios, they are frenetically trying to figure out ways to minimise its ill effects.

Egypt may well go Pakistan's way over time, with a domino-effect. If that happens, India too will be impacted directly and will not be able to afford the luxury of practicing inertia-driven non-involvement that it has so got used to. Democracy is only a form of government; when analysing and dealing with potential threats, it does not lend itself to being used either as a shield or a missile.
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