The recent assembly elections in
When the first phase of polling took place on
Prannoy Roy, at one time the most respected Indian psephologist, and his assistant, Dorab Sopariwala, on the other hand, sprang a major surprise, showing on NDTV that the Congress had actually defeated the BJP in the first phase, by winning an astounding 43 seats, a jump of 13 from the seats it had won in 2002.
After the second and final phase of polling on
After giving out the precise number of seats likely to be won by each party in the first phase, along with statistical explanations, NDTV was expected to be equally precise in its forecast in the second phase too, considering that it had the largest sample size and the expertise of Prannoy Roy. But, surprisingly, what we saw was an unbelievable joke.
NDTV gave the Congress party, believe it you must, between 27 and, yes, 52 seats in the second phase! In percentage terms, this represents a variation of an absurd 92 percent above the minimum seats projected! The BJP was projected to win between 50 and 70 seats, a variation of 40 percent. Based on these figures and those of the first phase, the BJP was given a generous band of 90 to 110 seats while the Congress was projected to win between 70 and 95 seats, a whopping 35.7 percent cushion!
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BJP…………………...Seats……….. Variation
Phase 1……………….40…………………-
Phase 2……………….50-70………… 40%
Total……………………90-110………..22%
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Congress……………Seats……….. Variation
Phase 1……………….43………………..-
Phase 2………………27-52……………92%
Total…………………..70-95…………..37%
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Others………………Seats………….. Variation
Phase 1………………3…………………….-
Phase 2………………0-2…………………!
Total…………………..3-5……………….66%
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What happened between the two phases that rendered NDTV helplessly incapable of giving as specific and clear a projection in phase 2 as it did after the first phase? Why did Roy not even try to explain the ‘scientific’ reasons behind what was clearly a mockery of exit polls after the second round, despite the claim of basing the projections on the largest sample size?
Is there any parallel anywhere in the world where a supposedly sophisticated statistical model throws up a variation of 92 percent from the lower end of the seats projected?
If we look back to the UP elections, there too
The unexplainable volte face by NDTV in its exit poll after the second phase of the
NDTV’s mockery of exit polls has one more deduction that refuses to go away. The way even the pretence of a fight by the Congress was hastily shed by Roy and Sopariwala after phase 2, shows that even NDTV is convinced that Modi is headed for a much bigger win than what the channel had initially anticipated but concealed. Sopariwala had even given a hint to this effect by saying softly that a two percent variation in the projected vote share either way would lead to a landslide victory for the BJP or the Congress.
Wait till the 23rd.
2 comments:
THANKS FOR APPEARING ON MY PAGES Vinod Ji!
I read your article too on NDTV...
I write about entire Media as "Media v/s India"
Today it appears as if entire meida has left with only one job "Modi Bashing"!!
I think that all these 'exit polls' will make their own Exit very soon!!
You are right. Instead of doing farcical exit polls, some of our media luminaries need to 'exit polls'!
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