INDIA AND PAK: MUZZLED GREAT DANE AND AGGRESSIVE DASCHUND

Can anyone even imagine Dr Manmohan Singh or Nirupama Rao doing in Beijing what Musharraf did in Agra and Bashir has done in New Delhi now? In Beijing, Manmohan will be even more docile and servile than he normally is while Rao will readily jump out of bed at 2:30 AM in response to a Chinese call.

Why will they do it? Because China has drive fear into our bones. It is not what happened in 1962 that scares us now but what China has done in the years since to make itself look bigger even as India has readily allowed itself to become even smaller.

Pakistan, on the other hand, despite its dismemberment in 1971, has consciously made itself much bigger than it was then, while India has stuck to the idiotic belief that between nations, strength is determined not by the penis, as it were, but by many layers of clothes of morality, trust and goodwill; the peanut beneath them is a useless appendage meant for peeing alone, so what if it is in the pants.

Another round of talk between India and Pakistan has concluded. One more time, India has allowed Pakistan to aggressively project India as the wrongdoer and itself as the victim. After meekly allowing Pakistan to wage a low-cost, low-intensity war against itself for over two decades, India has yet again not only not failed to get that nation to concede even an inch of its stated objective of liberating Kashmir, it has actually let it - that too after 26/11 - point additional accusing fingers at it with respect to Baluchistan and water.

Ever since the capture of Ajmal Kasab exposed the involvement of the Lashkar -e-Toiba in the terror attack on Mumbai on November 26, 2008, India has been demanding the arrest and prosecution of mastermind Hafiz Saeed. Dossiers containing evidence have been submitted - this time too - but the state of Pakistan says they contain no evidence at all. To cut the very long story of Pakistan's carefully calibrated deception short, not only does Saeed continue to roam free but his anti-India tirades have become even more belligerent after the Mumbai attack.

Is it a mere coincidence that a couple of weeks before the latest round of talks, the Jamat-ud-Dawa held a huge rally in Lahore - the first after 26/11 - and similar rallies in 36 other cities of Pakistan to renew calls for jihad against India? Is it of no significance that, with thousands of supporters brandishing Ak47s on Mall Road, Saeed yelled that one Mumbai was not enough and asked his cheering followers to wage jihad against India? Was it mere rhetoric that Saeed demanded that a dialogue with India must not only include Kashmir but also the sending of Indian troops into East Pakistan and even Partition, with respect to Jamnagar and Monawadar, the two princely states that had declared accession to Pakistan? Has it been forgotten that the same Saeed had, as far back as 2000, declared that Kashmir was a mere 'gateway to the capture of India' and has been reiterating that intention time and again?

Only the naïve will believe that such a huge Pakistani Punjabi anti-India jihadi rally would have taken place in Lahore without the blessings - even at the instance - of the military that effectively rules Pakistan and lays down the agenda for any engagement by the puppet civilian regime with India. Only the blind will not see that the grand design of the Pakistani state is being thoughtfully voiced through organisations like the JuD and individuals like Hafiz Saeed presently only to prepare ground so that once a significant breach is made against India, beginning with Kashmir, it can be more openly adopted by the state itself.

Unfortunately for India, there is a powerful clutch of journalists and analysts who have ether been asked by India's political leaders with a votes-only outlook or who have themselves willingly clouded their own analytical abilities by their peculiar concept of secularism, to pretend to see little wrong in anything said or done by anyone if there is a danger of it having the effect of consolidating majority opinion in India. The direct effect of this warped and dangerous, almost anti-India stance is that it always hastens to blank out or suppress anything that points to Muslim Pakistan's pathologically communal anti-India position because of the fear that it will reduce the vote share of the Congress party, with whose non-ideology these guys are comfortable and due to whose patronage many of them have benefited along more dimensions than one.

The net result of the hopeless muddle that India has got itself into, and is not even thinking of finding a way to get out of, is that it is always reacting, always defending, always pacifist, always conciliatory, always looking at the hug and not the dagger, always hoping that Pakistan, thanks to its own existential problems, will pull it out, always believing that Uncle Sam will get Pakistan to fall in line. In short, there is no strategy whatsoever to proactively compel Pakistan to behave its size and stop bleeding this country. The only 'strategy', if one abuses the word, is of inaction, in the dumb hope that, like it happened with insurgencies in the North East that got solved simply because the people got tired, in this case too, Pakistan will eventually tire, throw away that bloodied khanjar, and embrace India.

As the self-inflicted disaster of the latest round of talks shows once again, Pakistan believes it has scored a major victory with 26/11. The 14-month gap in terror attacks after 26/11 was not reflective, as some of our corrupted-by-Pakistani-kebabs journalists and analysts want the nation to believe, of any fundamental change in Pakistan's congenital stance towards India. It was a well-thought out strategy to blunt the outcry that followed and that too because of the looming presence and pressure of America. The dishonest cry of the Pakistanis that they too were victims of terror was only to lull believing, goodwill-dependent, paralytic Indians into complacence.

Many Indians readily forget that for Pakistan, terrorists are primarily Pashtuns and Baluchis who are fighting against Pakistan; Punjabis fighting against India in Kashmir and the rest of India were, are and will remain its frontline soldiers even though, for very elementary reasons, they cannot be formally inducted into the military or openly owned up. Yet. That is why we keep falling into Pakistan's trap again and again. That is why our diplomats keep making the mistake of imagining that Pakistani diplomats sitting across the table are also there without any map and that they too are hoping that some direction will emerge out of those parleys or rote discussions in Indian TV studios. Like diplomats are meant to, Pakistan's diplomats employ their training and skills to further their nation's India strategy as laid down - have no doubt - by its Generals. Indian diplomats, on the other hand, not only have no national strategy to pursue, but, in the absence of any political and military vision, have appropriated for themselves the role of formulating and projecting it. It is due to this that we continue to witness, in fits and starts, reactive, disjointed, incoherent plans that lack any objective. That is why a much smaller Pakistan, rather than being scared, remains aggressive and hostile.

Pakistan smelled the coward in India decades ago. After Indira Gandhi, India has not had a leader with balls. Worse, we had the misfortune of having an unfit Prime Minister, Inder Gujral, who not only formulated a juvenile 'Gujral Doctrine' that was totally out of touch with reality but also was so morally appalled by India's feeble covert operations in Pakistan that he wound them up. That blunder has not only not been undone, even bigger blunders have been made, the most striking being those by Atal Bihari Vajpayee whose vision was debilitatingly impaired by a completely absurd understanding of the 'reality' of geography.

Manmohan and his team are continuing in that tradition that will have no parallel in history outside of the subcontinent. That is why we are continuing to witness this pitiable spectacle that is akin to a muzzled and chained Great Dane being incessantly surprised, bullied and bitten by a Daschund who has been allowed to think that he is a tiger. The Dane, rendered incapable of any worthwhile reaction by his masters, continues to wag his tail in the belief that he is too big, can live with the minor discomfort of tiny bites and that the much smaller Daschund, no matter how hard he tries, has no chance of winning.

But the Pakistanis have read their history well. They have not forgotten Prithviraj Chauhan. They can see that India is following in his footsteps, in fact doing worse; they have understood that India will keep letting Pakistan bite, pause, bite again, ad infinitum, without biting back. They also know that all that they need is one good grip on the jugular. Even if it takes a thousand years. Till that happens, India must also be harassed and forced to talk and yield, even if it is a little, each time.
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Readers may also read:
1. Don't 'bugger-my-buggering-nation', strengthen him
2. A year after 26/11, calls for a strong Pakistan
3. No price is too high, just 'love Pakistan'
4. Musharraf's shockers on terror, Kashmir and Indian Muslims

AF-PAK: THE TIDE IS TURNING BUT INDIA HAS NO PLAN

"There is a rising tide of Islam around the world." This is what Newsweek editor Fareed Zakaria said just a year ago. America's armed opposition to Islamic fundamentalists, he noted then, had "made this whole enterprise feel very much like a clash of civilizations, and a violent one at that."

Has anything dramatic happened, unknown to many of us, in the last 365 days days or so to suggest that the "entire terrain of the war on terror has evolved dramatically...and the tide is turning", as Zakaria is saying now without citing anything really new in support?

Last year, acknowledging that things were going badly for US troops in Afghanistan, Zakaria had outlined a strategy by which the situation could be salvaged there by the US. Making a distinction between the Al Qaida and the Taliban, what he had suggested then in sum was that the US should talk to what he called the "good" Taliban, cut a deal and hand Afghanistan to them after Al Qaida was defeated. The "good" Taliban, according to him, were those had no links with the Al Qaida which was waging a war against the US, did not advocate global jihad and wanted Islamic rule locally only.

A year later, with no improvement in the ground situation in Afghanistan, President Barack Obama has authorised sending of 30,000 additional troops there and has expanded the war inside Pakistan by increasing the areas covered by drone attacks. But, for some reason, Zakaria has not only completely de-linked the Taliban from the Al Qaida but also wants us to swallow the lie that "jihadist ideology has wrapped itself around a genuine ethnic struggle in which Pashtuns feel that they are being dispossessed by rival groups"! The enemy, as Zakaria sees now through the eyes of the US, is the much weakened Al Qaida alone.

If this line represents the latest US thinking, then India has much to worry about. The tide is turning but against it: America is looking for a way to get out of Afghanistan at the earliest. To do that honourably, it seems to be willing to hand over Afghanistan back to the Taliban and give generous doles to Pakistan, if the latter guarantees that it will not allow the territories of both nations to be used by the Al Qaida, or any other group, against the interests of the US, as they were before 9/11. As long as this Laxman Rekha is not crossed, as far as the US is concerned, jihadis can keep doing what they want in Af-Pak, Kashmir and the rest of India.

Unfortunately for India, some of its own analysts and thinkers also believe that a 'strong and stable' Pakistan is just what India needs, and that the thorn that it has become can be turned into a flower if India gives whatever concessions are needed to enhance the credibility and power of Pakistan's government. One has to daft or dishonest to even imagine that the all-pervasive hold of Pakistan's military is going to be weakened in this manner and that any civilian in power there is going to be in a position to pursue an India policy that conflicts with the one being relentlessly pursued by its military since 1947. As Musharraf admitted with misplaced pride, Pakistan exists as a state only because of its military and the ISI which - we tend to forget - is a powerful arm of the military itself. Its politicians and civilian officials have been and will be effectively subordinate to the military. The Army Chief is going to remain Pakistan's most powerful man and the supreme authority no one can overrule, as far as national security and India policy is concerned. The military, as is well known, is founded and grounded in a rabid anti-India mindset that cannot be shed for ideological and practical reasons by its leadership.

Our leaders and policy makers surely must know all this. Why, then, are they intent on giving fake lollipops to unsuspecting Indians directly by making hapless pacifist noises and indirectly through elitist tamashas like 'Aman ki Asha'? Why does our economist PM Dr Manmohan Singh not get himself armed with some hard professional advice and stop bleating that India can do nothing at all except talk to Pakistan?

Is it not matter of grave concern that it has taken American Senator Larry Pressler, to voice disappointment that India is not raising a voice about what's happening in Afghanistan, and warn the country that once the US leaves that country, "India is going to have on its border a highly armed loose canon in Pakistan, a rogue state whose government is not what we espouse or support. A rogue Pakistan on steroids of US money"? With Afghanistan back in Pakistan's pocket, Pakistan's military will have at its disposal thousands of jubilant jihadis who it will redirect to achieve victory in Kashmir and, at the same time, create mayhem in the rest of India. Let us not forget that Pakistan has been assiduously preparing the ground for greater jihadi intervention in India. Musharraf, in an interview to Karan Thapar, repeatedly spoke of the role of the LeT in protecting the interests of Indian Muslims. More recently, the way Hamid Mir twisted the reaction of Shiv Sena to Shahrukh Khan's idiotic statements, to appropriate for Pakistan the role of his friend and protector of India's Muslims, shows that, behind fake civil facades, its anti-India agenda remains unabated. The objective of luring more and more Indian Muslims to terror by creating disaffection in them against India is not limited to Pakistan's military alone.

The US, no longer rich enough to afford a long, costly war in Afghanistan, much less expand it into Pakistan where it must end if the war on terror has to be decisively won, is likely to take an extremely narrow and short-term view, and get out, claiming a pyrrhic victory. Is any effort being made by India to tell the US that the reprieve that it may get will be only temporary and that a gun in jihadi hands can and will be turned devastatingly towards the US again at an opportune moment with much greater planning and preparation than before 9/11? Is India even thinking of effectively countering what for it will become a far graver threat than ever before?

Tragically for India, nothing of the sort seems to be happening. As even Barkha Dutt is discovering now, India has no long-term plan to deal with Pakistan or terrorism; it is being made up as we go along. Can anything be more shocking? More than 20 years after Pakistan unleashed terror and despite the loss of the lives of thousands of sons of India, no one in the government knows what India must do to put an end to it quickly and decisively. No other large nation has ever allowed a much smaller one to bleed it so effortlessly at such low cost for such a long time. And since no workable, result-oriented strategy has even been thought of, some zombies are still talking of a 'nuanced' approach while our pacifist and strategy-blind PM stutters from one mistake to another in total darkness. Talks, as MJ Akbar notes, are only about civilians pretending to be civil, not about finding solutions. Worse, such talks, rather than discouraging or controlling jihadis, are actually going to motivate them to fight on with renewed vigour.

This mindless non-strategy is going to blast in India's face if the US does leave Afghanistan with the Taliban intact and Pakistan strong. I can hear Pressler saying: "You have been warned". He and others can keep shouting. If India keeps pitting disinterested, status-quo-loving, uninformed civilians against focused, result-driven, professional generals who rule Pakistan, defeat is guaranteed. No one has ever won a war without a plan; these guys don't even know how to make one.

BT AND MAHA BT!

Guest post by Gopinath Mavinkurve

The recent launch program of the BT Brinjal undertaken by the Hon. Minister for Environment, Shri Jairam Ramesh met with several protests from NGOs and social activists, who alleged that genetically modified (GM) crops like BT Cotton had wrecked the lives of farmers with its poor yields, high cost of seeds and rendering of the farmlands infertile for other crops, and so on. So they did not want the BT Brinjal cultivation to be ushered in without properly addressing the side-effects involved. If it wasn’t for protestors, we would have been served with the BT Baingan Bharta by this weekend, I guess!

Had the Government of India been armed with sufficient research data, showing no harmful effects caused by the GM crop, it would not need to put a hold on its launch. Apparently, the protestors’ fears have not been allayed through sufficient clinical tests. So now that we have got the BT Brinjal issue out of our way, it is time to look at another BT issue on our hands today:

The BT Maharashtra Government issue.

Incidentally this Balasaheb Thakarey-run Maha Government is also a GM variety of governance – not genetically modified variety, but a Goonda-giri Mara-mari variety of governance. No matter who is in power, there is always this threat of a ban from the self-appointed, extra-constitutional, parallel ruling power that one has to deal with in Maharasthra, more so, Mumbai, followed by acts of vandalism in public places. This scenario is not new. It is here for several decades.

Did we not learn about MNCs like Enron seeking the blessings of the Sena chief? Or for that matter any rising entrepreneur, sportsman or political aspirant of either party, who has not sought his patronage or support? Did that not make bigger headlines than the same distinguished achiever receiving a State award or honor from the CM of the state in power?

It always did! So why then this huge outcry and questions from the media now, when NCP Leader Sharad Pawar seeks the Tiger’s nod for Aussie players in the IPL, one would ask? I guess it is because the pitch and frequency of the scathing attacks on celebrities, who are worshipped like god in their own fields, like Sachin Tendulkar, Shah Rukh Khan, Karan Johar, Amitabh Bacchan etc. has been on the increase, of late.

Avdhoot Gupte, a popular music director in the regional Marathi film industry, who ventured to direct his first Marathi film “Zenda”, sought clearance from a couple of Senas and some Maharashtra politicians, he explained, in a television channel talk show that it was because the story was based on the political scene in the state and wanted them to clear it to avoid disruption and inconvenience to the lay public. Whether it is this concern for one’s customer or just plain business prudence, this sort of interaction and feedback is certainly better than vandalism and loss to public and private property, besides grievous injury.

In fact, I am a strong advocate of talks and debates, rather than violence on the streets or in cinema halls or the cricket pitch. It is very important, today, for us to know the thoughts of folks like Sachin, SRK, KJo or Big B as much as we need to know the thoughts of Balasaheb. I am convinced over the years, that, though the Senas have resorted to the wrong means, the issues raised have always been important, noteworthy and deserving of attention and solutions. Issues such as immigration, job creation, price rises, lack of infrastructure, incessant building activities carried out by builders, land-grabbing, etc. are real issues, which need to be discussed and resolved and not neglected.

We need to change the approach to our problems and their possible solutions. Take the issue of jobs in Mumbai or Maharashtra. While the Senas are trying to impress the local folks that they are fighting for a better share of the job-cake for them (for political mileage, everyone understands), no one is addressing the real issue of enlarging the cake itself, by increasing the jobs by bringing in investment into industries in the city and state. No thought is being given to the political climate conducive to setting up of new industries! There is no healthy debate involving the Govt in power or these battling senas about why are industries not coming in and instead going out to other states? Why are foreign investors more comfortable with setting up their industries in Gujarat or AP or Karnataka or TN instead of Maharashtra?

Maharashtra is the only state with Octroi imposed for incoming goods in 22 cities of the State right now. It used to be 37 cities until last year and after a decade long tussle that the industry associations had with the bureaucrats in Mantralaya, the abolition of octroi in 2008, was effected only in 15 smaller cities in D Zone, hesitantly.

[Incidentally, Octroi is prevalent only in the State of Maharashtra and in Ethiopia as on date]

Yours truly had the privilege to be part of these discussions. So once, after a high-powered committee meeting, I asked a state government official over a cup of tea, “When will we abolish Octroi in Mumbai?” “Never!” he whispered on terms of confidentially. As he explained to me, the state’s policy is to discourage industry in the Mega-City, so that the MIDC areas in remote areas of Maharashtra become attractive and several incentives are also available for setting up industries there. So we have a carrot and stick policy! A carrot that is not so juicy, so people prefer other states. And several such sticks that are so hurtful that one would even settle for other options. The industrial policy of the state, perhaps does not take into account the existence of other states in India!

If you closely examine this industrial location policy, the logic is great, it is highly effective - in driving out potential investors, though. One thing the Govt of Maharashtra forgets – that such policies may succeed in driving out polluting industries out of cities, but cannot be sure it will not go to other states like Gujarat or even to another country like China! MERC’s (Maharasthra Electric Regulatory Commission) tariff fixation methods are equally responsible for the flight of industry from Maharashtra to the neighbouring state of Gujarat. One has learnt of several instances of power-intensive industries that had been paying Rs 7-8 per unit of electricity moving to Silvassa in Gujarat, which offers electricity at Rs. 2.5 per unit or so! Labour Trade environment and ease of doing business are other factors challenging the state.

One wonders if we need another Sena to highlight these issues or will folks wake up to reality before they find their youngsters leaving to some other state! By which time, the Senas will become redundant, as all the Marathi Manoos would have left the State for greener pastures and there won’t be any living in the Maha State, to fight for! That may be too far-fetched. Let us hope for a better turn of events through some Maha efforts on the part of the Marathi Manoos, by working towards building a better state with the right approach to make Maharashtra the leading destination for industry and investors.
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IS INDIA NOT FREE YET?

History has often been used as a political tool. The British did that when they ruled India. But six decades after their departure, the disparaging set of views and beliefs that they propagated about India's past and its 'Hindu' tradition not only continues to be unquestioningly accepted and propagated, but things have reached such a stage that "if one makes positive noises about the contribution of Indian culture to humanity, one runs the risk of being associated with Hindu nationalism."

In an illuminating article entitled 'How free are we?' in Outlook magazine, Jakob De Roover - in India one still needs the name of a Westerner to give respectability to an alternate view - speaks about a not-so-manifest but insidious threat to intellectual freedom in the study of India: an implicit censorship that, "moulds the mind of people in particular ways; it constrains their speech; it compels them to show compliance to certain dogmas in their writings; and, for the unlucky few, it may even end their careers." This has its roots in the colonial past in which European civilisation was consciously projected as being superior. That is why, according to Roover, all ills and atrocities in Indian society like "widow-burning, dowry murder, domestic violence, female infanticide and caste discrimination" are linked to ‘Hindu’ foundations, while similar ills and atrocities such as "racism, colonial genocide, the two World Wars, the Holocaust, sexual abuse, etc" are considered as aberrations acts that deviate from the true temper of European culture; no link is made with the continent's Christian experience.

The British, as we all know, created and nourished an intellectual and governing class whose prime purpose was to protect and further the interest of the Empire. Roover points out that the other objective of the colonial master was to project Indian, particularly Hindu, history and culture as a negation of 'civilising' Western norms. Despite that, independent India opted to retain all colonial structures of governance and education. At a fundamental level, therefore, freedom was no more than a transfer of power from one set of rulers to another.

In other posts, I have written in some detail about how the colonial structures of the state, particularly the civil services and police, which at one time even Nehru wanted to rid India of, have perpetuated the continuation of a neo-colonial and feudalistic society which has prevented real democracy from taking root. Even more insidious has been the role of academics in perpetuating the myth of the superiority of Western civilisation and the inferiority of 'Hinduism'. These 'secularists', as Roover calls the Marxists and liberals who share an 'allergy' to Hinduism, have "dominated the Indian universities and established an intellectual and institutional hegemony," and performed a role similar to the colonial master. This domination has resulted in different forms of implicit censorship: it determines what is published, where the funding goes, and who gets appointed and has created "a widespread fear of saying ‘the wrong thing’, which paralyses the study of Indian culture."

Since this has been going on unquestioned for a long time, the average educated Hindu has been growing up with a shaken faith in his religion; the more Westernised he becomes, the greater the possibility of his becoming totally disconnected with it. One reason for this, in addition to those mentioned by Roover, is that the colonial master turned all Hindu gods into mythological characters who were no shown as more than creations of the imagination of poets and writers. This was part of a deliberate plan to show Hinduism as a false religion and, thereby, encourage conversions to Christianity. That is why Ramayan and Mahabharat were reduced to the status of 'epics', little different from Odyssey and Iliad that are no more than literary works describing a dead civilisation and its false gods and religion. The implied equating of Greek mythology and Hindu 'mythology' has taken its toll, as is the often missed fact the the word 'mythology' is never used in connection with Christianity or Islam.

That is why you will often find that when a Hindu goes to, say, a Hanuman or Durga temple, he prays, but when out of it, beaten into doubt, he questions their very existence. Some, of course, have made some sort of peace with this doubt by believing in one's chosen personal deity while accepting the possibility that other gods and goddesses are no more than myths. Those who know even a bit of Hinduism understand how inseparably inter-related the whole canvas is; if you take out one piece the whole picture is destroyed. If Durga is real, for example, then there is a whole pantheon that has to be real too. And if that is real then? The whole web is intricately inter-woven. So either all gods are mythical or they all are real. And, lest we forget, every single religion is packed with the supernatural, the rationally unbelievable and the scientifically impossible.

This colonial construct has also created a small but powerful group of men and women who have almost completely severed their ties with and belief in the religion of their birth, except when it comes to celebrating certain festivals in a 'secular' way. It is this disconnected lot of liberals and Marxists, bearing Hindu names, who are perpetuating the colonial view of the history of India. It is this lot that goes up in arms when anyone questions what they have done, accusing them of 'saffronising' history, being part of the communal Hindutva brigade etc. In fact London based historian Salil Tripathi, who belongs to this group, has gone to the extent of equating them with Nazis! In this endeavour, not only do people like him continue to have powerful political backing of 'secular' parties that fear that any much needed correction will help parties like the BJP, but also the English media that is saturated with individuals who have grown up on their dope and have become like them. This sophisticated but unquestionably intolerant censorship has effectively prevented the resurgence of "a climate of intellectual freedom that has too long been absent from the study of India."

It is not an accident that even 63 years after Independence, India has not been able to formulate a vision for itself as a nation. A vision flows out of what a nation sees itself as. And that is often based on the lessons of history. China and India are the oldest living civilisations in the world. Unfortunately India's view of itself has remained as was defined by the British to subjugate it and make it feel inferior. Pakistan has broken away from that view but in a negative sense that sees the Hindu as the enemy and the period during which Muslims kings ruled much of India as the ideal. Its sometimes stated vision of claiming the rest of India too some time in the future, emerges from that limited and horribly distorted interpretation of India's history.

Secular India, on the other hand, does not want to re-connect to its complete and unbroken past for reasons that have more to do with politics and low self-esteem than history itself. So, like everything else the colonial master created to rule India by making Indians feel inferior, its version of history too is being conveniently perpetuated. There must be no other example in history where a nation and a culture has remained so 'enslaved' even after evicting its conqueror.

That perhaps explains why focused Indians excel all over the world when competing as individuals while a direction-less, shackled India continues to under-perform. India is not free yet.

An informative article by Shyamal Barua can be found here.
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Related reading:
1. Corrupt, colonial India faces volcano
2. For Bharat's sake, and India's, dump colonial institutions
3. India's democracy now only 'by the people'
4. Go India, got to be the best, not second

EAGLE FALTERS, DRAGON HISSES, ELEPHANT SLEEPS

Like the British Empire that preceded it, America's journey into sunset, distant yet but distinct, has commenced, as the sun begins to rise in the East again.

When Mukesh Ambani said a few days back that "whatever had to be done in the West, has been done", to highlight the fact India will present more opportunities in the future, it would not have occurred to many attending that panel discussion at the London School of Economics, that the US had decisively moved to the wrong side of not just the economic but also the military power curve. A few significant developments in the following days have, however, driven home this imperceptibly unfolding fact in somewhat dramatic fashion.

The world's biggest power is now not only the world's biggest borrower, but, according to the latest US federal budget, things are only likely to get worse. The projected deficit on the coming year is going to be nearly 11% of the nation's economic output. According to President Obama's own optimistic projections, it is not likely to return to sustainable levels in the next 10 years. There is, therefore, real possibility that, like it happened with Japan, as debt grows more rapidly than income, America's influence around the world will get eroded. Unless something miraculous happens. And that, as things appear now, is less likely than ever before.

China, which has for long been consciously working towards reclaiming the leadership position that the West had taken away a few centuries back, has apparently already smelled blood as it were. Seeing that the Eagle has got into a dive that will not end in it swooping on a prey and soaring skyward again, but in a hard crash into the ground, the Dragon has begun to breathe fire in a manner that would have been unthinkable before Bush hastened America's slide by getting involved in a costly war in Iraq.

China has not only threatened the US with sanctions if the latter goes ahead with a $6.4 billion arms deal with Taiwan but has already put on hold military exchanges, postponed vice minister-level talks on security and said it will impose corresponding sanctions on US companies that engage in weapons sale to Taiwan. Its official Xinhua news agency has also warned that the deal "will cause seriously negative effects on China-U.S. exchanges and cooperation in important areas, and ultimately will lead to consequences that neither side wishes to see."

It may be recalled that prior to his visit to China last year, President Obama had declined to meet the Dalai Lama in Washington, so as to not annoy his hosts. According to reports, he had, however, agreed to meet him some time later. Now that the meeting is on in May, a senior Chinese official has "strongly warned" Obama that such a meeting would damage relations and that the US would suffer "serious consequences". China has been protesting such meetings with US Presidents since long. Obama is going ahead with the meeting, as did some of his predecessors, but there is now is little doubt that the shift in the balance of power is very real and seemingly irrevocable, and that China's concerns can no longer be arrogantly ignored.

China has a huge trade surplus with the US and one of the reasons for that is that China has deliberately depressed the Yuan to give its exporters an unfair advantage. On Wednesday, Obama said he would get tougher with China on the issue to ensure that it opens up its market so that "our goods are not artificially inflated in price." China hit back immediately saying that its currency is reasonably priced and warned the US that "criticism and pressing is obviously not helpful to solving problems."

The aggression visible in these responses is neither incidental nor isolated. It is part of a carefully thought-out and coordinated plan by China to project itself not just as America's equal but as a nation that has a plot that is not only fully under control but is superior to what the Americans have or can come up with. China is subtly positioning itself as the new and better leader of a new world along a number of dimensions. To do that, it is drawing upon the strength of its ancient civilisational and cultural heritage, to offer the world what it believes is a paradigm that is better and more durable than what the West has ever been able to offer.

The Pentagon's latest Quadrennial Defence Review (QDR), 2010, also recognises that power dynamics have undergone a dramatic change and that the US is no longer the world's sole super power. "The distribution of global political, economic and military power is shifting and becoming more diffuse. The rise of China, the world's most populous country, and India, the world's largest democracy, will continue to reshape the international system." This, according to the report, will give rise to an international system that is no longer easily defined - ''one in which the US will remain the most powerful actor but must increasingly work with key allies and partners if it is to sustain stability and peace.''

Look at the irony. India has not even given a thought to what this billion-strong nation's role should be in the rapidly changing scenario in which China, with which it has a long standing border dispute and which has been trying to encircle it, is going to increasingly use its power to influence outcomes and settle them in its favour where necessary. It is the Pentagon, more alarmed by the rise of an opaque and inscrutable China than India is, that is reminding India that, given its size and strength, it should become a "net provider of security in the Indian Ocean and beyond." How can it, when our guys have still not been able figure out even India's coastal security? 26/11 has already been forgotten.

Mukesh Ambani, and others like him, are turning India into a land of economic opportunity. This is despite, let us face it, and not because of the government; a subject by itself. These discrete efforts have not been, and are not likely to be, exploited optimally by a security-blind, strategy-bereft Indian state mired in petty politics, pettier corruption and stifling bureaucratic bungling.

India's vision, as defined by those who have been positioned to formulate and articulate it, is effectively little more than the aggregate of their individual dreams. In that narrow tunnel, aspiration ends at getting their kids into Harvard and then telling India how they - and therefore the US - are superior, and how happy they are to see guys back home and their country remain a distant second. There is simply no strategic vision for powering the country to the top, or anywhere else for that matter.

India is being defeated by Indians. That is why, as the Eagle falters and the Dragon hisses, the Elephant, from which the Dragon has learnt much, sleeps.

Like Hanuman, India seems to have been cursed to forget its power. Unfortunately, this curse is not as mild. All it took Hanuman to recollect everything was a gentle reminder by Jamvant. But the Elephant that has been made to discard and deride its thousands of years old habitat, has become so weak and unsure of itself that even nasty reminders have failed to awaken it to realisation.

A persistent Jamvant is sorely needed and quickly. Vultures don't give reminders.
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3. China gets dangerous but nothing can move India

BHAGWAT'S GAME-CHANGER IN MAHARASHTRA

There is something puzzling but defining about what is happening in Maharashtra.

In the run-up to the last elections, Raj Thackeray had lit and stoked anti-North Indian fires with the "Marathi Manoos" mantra. Every one knows what he did to the Bachchans. Every one also saw the fake tears of Naresh Goyal after he threatened that he would not allow Jet Airways to fly from Mumbai unless its sacked employees were taken back. The disturbing visuals of Raj's boys beating up non-Maharashtrians who wanted to take the Railways exam were also not missed by anyone who watches TV.

During those days, uncle Bal Thackeray and cousin Uddhav Thackeray were on the back foot, not sure perhaps whether Raj's aggressive "Maharashtra for Maharashtrians" strategy would yield electoral dividends, again. In the event, even though he fared much worse than he had anticipated, Raj Thackeray took sufficient number of voters away from the Shiv Sena, the resultant split handing over unexpected 'victory' to the discredited Congress-NCP government that was heading for sure defeat. More significantly, macho Raj Thackeray also ensured that the gentle Uddhav, who led Shiv Sena's campaign, was so humiliated by the worst ever performance of his party, that he was left with little choice but to re-invent himself and his party in a manner that would neutralise the stridency of Raj and bring angry Shiv Sainiks back into the fold.

There were voices even then who were shouting that Raj Thackeray was being made to look bigger than the slight man he is because of the support of the Congress and the NCP. The old 'Bhindranwale Trick', some said, was being employed to divide the opposition, that being the only way in which the ruling combine could hope to get back to power. But, during those days, no one was listening, including the Marathi manoos who were being conned in broad day light into ensuring their own defeat.

Mission accomplished, with both its prime opponents defeated, one was expecting that India's premier national and secular party would take some steps to reclaim Mumbai for India and Indians irrespective of their region and religion. But no, the Congress had a more practical and pressing problem to deal with: it had to ensure that Raj Thackeray remains no more than an irritating but vital 'spoiler'; another Bhindranwale could not be allowed to upset its plans again.

One way of doing it was to place the nation firmly in its sights while ensuring that sentiments of locals were taken care of. The second way was to claim the agenda of Raj Thackeray as its own. Which politician will not choose the easier option these days? So, when the question of granting new licenses to taxis plying in Mumbai came up, the government did a Raj, issuing a diktat that they would be issued only to those who were resident in the state for at least 15 years and could "read and write Marathi".

This stance of the Congress enraged every right-thinking Indian. So, it was no surprise that when Mukesh Ambani was asked a question on the issue during a panel discussion at the London School of Economics, he responded by saying "We are all Indians first. Mumbai, Chennai and Delhi belong to all Indians".

One would have thought that Raj Thackeray would erupt in anger at these welcome-all-Indians remarks of Mukesh Ambani and his goons would vandalise offices of Reliance Industries in Mumbai. But, surprisingly, he did not utter a word. The same thing had happened earlier when Sachin Tendulkar had said that he was an Indian first and that Mumbai belonged to all Indians. Even more surprisingly, Raj did not react at all when Shahrukh Khan spoke in favour of having Pakistani cricketers in the IPL. The same Raj, it may be recalled, had earlier so wanted to take Pakistan out of Mumbai that he had forced a shop owner to change the name of his shop from 'Karachi Sweets' to 'Mumbai Sweets'! One can only wonder what it would have taken a grateful Congress to turn him into such a pigeon.

The Shiv Sena, on the other hand, has now become the new 'Raj'. Bal Thackeray has asked "Pandit Mukesh Ambani" to not "meddle in the path of Mumbai and Marathi manoos". Earlier, he had slammed Sachin Tendulkar and warned him to "keep off the political pitch". A few days back, Shiv Sainiks also demonstrated in front of Shahrukh Khan's home and asked him too to not interfere in politics.

But there is a real twist in the tale this time, one that should shame the Congress. RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat - a Maharashtrian himself - has been quoted as saying that "Mumbai is for all Indians. People of all languages, communities, tribes are children of India. Nobody can prevent Indians from moving to any part of the country in search of employment." Bhagwat also believes that "This is a misconception that employment has decreased at our place because of migrants. Solution of this grievance should be found but the solution is not that you refuse people of your country to migrate to your area. The solution can be found if administration and government are dedicated. All political parties should rising above the vote-bank politics and consider this issue. National integration is above all," Signalling that the RSS is ready and willing to take on both the Shiv Sena and the Congress-supported MNS of Raj Thackeray, he has gone to the extent of asking RSS volunteers to protect North Indians in Maharashtra and prevent spread of anti-Hindi feelings.

This unexpected stance, which has surprised the BJP and come as the proverbial bolt from the blue for the Shiv Sena, has angered Uddhav Thackeray who has again stated in his party mouthpiece 'Saamna' that Mumbai belongs to Marathi manoos. The BJP is in a spot. It is in alliance with the Shiv Sena but cannot go against such a nationalistic view publicly aired by the RSS chief. Even the Congress, semantics apart, cannot now afford to keep towing the Raj-Uddhav line quietly and claiming with any credibility that it is still the same visionary national party that led India to freedom.

A potential game-changer has been introduced into Maharashtra politics by Mohan Bhagwat. If he is serious about pursuing the thrust line that he has so unambiguously articulated, politics in the state is in for a transformation. The alliance between the BJP and the Shiv Sena can then survive only if the latter backs off and effectively gives up its anti-outsider stance. That might well be impossible for it because of the danger that the MNS will become the real Shiv Sena. Be that as it may, as far as the BJP is concerned, it must take the risk and bite the bullet. With both the RSS chief and the BJP President being from Maharashtra, it is in the best possible position to do so. The shining example of neighbouring Gujarat which is speeding away at blistering pace by, among other things, keeping all its doors and windows open to all Indians, is also there for it to show to all.

The ramifications of what the BJP does in Maharashtra are bound to be felt nationally. A window of opportunity is opening up for it in the state, and it must be taken at the tide. Raj and Uddhav are relics of a bygone era. They may incite passions but can only take Maharashtra back as they can do little better than help a non-performing and hopelessly corrupt Congress-NCP government do what it pleases and yet return to power once again. If they are not put out of business quickly, Maharashtra will most likely become the next West Bengal - a wasteland where entitlement by identity will remain but opportunity will go elsewhere. The sooner the Marathi manoos understand this, the better for them - more than anyone else.