WILL PARLEYS WITH ULFA BEAR FRUIT THIS TIME?

Guest post by Shyamal Barua

The chairman of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), Arabinda Rajkhowa, was not arrested by Bangladesh authorities but "detained" and turned over to India. But there is a big if. Rajkhowa is the head of the political wing and has been known for some time to be eager for talks and absconded to Bangladesh. The ULFA has been considerably weakened in the past few months by army action and may also be using the talks as a fig leaf to regroup.

Home minister P. Chidambaram has made it clear that he is waiting for a political statement from Rajkhowa before any movement takes place. But the military commander of ULFA, Paresh Baruah is still holding out. He does not want peace. According to intelligence reports, Baruah has fled to the jungles in Myanmar with around 500 armed men.

In lower Assam, the 709 battalion is intact. But their main strike force, the 28 battalion, has surrendered to the government. Baruah's army is depleted, but still capable of carrying out terror strikes. People in Assam are bracing themselves for stepped up attacks as Baruah is said to have ordered his cadres to get cracking.

The proposed peace talk with ULFA was not a result of a well-thought out strategy by the Govt. Of India, but had more to do with Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s decision to crack down on north-eastern militant rogues operating from Bangladesh.

Since last month, the Bangladesh authorities have been rounding up and handing over ULFA cadres to India, including biggies in the outfit like Sasha Chowdhury and Chitrabon Hazarika. But since Tuesday evening, intelligence agencies in India were talking about a bi catch by Dhaka. By Wednesday, it was clear that person was Rajkhowa.

The Centre and the Assam government were both in a fix about what to do with the ULFA chief. Initially, the home ministry thought he would be arrested as soon as he landed in Delhi. But Assam chief minister Tarun Gogoi, scenting a political opportunity, pleaded with Delhi that Rajkhowa should not be arrested, instead the Centre must offer talks. He said that “signals” were encouraging and things were right direction. Asked whether his government will offer safe passage to top leaders if they come for talks, he said, “I am for it.”

Centre is trying to work out a deal with Ulfa chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa that will "protect his honour" as well as project him as a negotiator in a peace deal with the "Delhi durbar". "It is a very politically sensitive matter and it must appear to be an honourable deal for Rajkhowa so that his outfit accepts it," a source said. "It must not appear to be surrender by the Ulfa leader."

According to sources, as part of the deal, once an agreement is reached between the two, Rajkhowa could be taken back to the Tripura border or even to Bangladesh and officially given "safe passage" so that he can attend the proposed talks in Delhi. Sources said the ITBP, RAW and other agencies interrogated him through the day while the backroom boys in the Union home ministry were engaged in an in-camera exercise: to look for ways through which Rajkhowa finds himself on a level playing field when he begins treading the path of peace.

According to the sources, the government is planning to draw up a "declaration" for Rajkhowa to ink which will spell out his decision to hold peace talks. "Rajkhowa has a mind of his own and contents of the declaration are being discussed with him threadbare. He is certainly not a rubber stamp," a counter-terrorism expert linked to the Centre said. "The document should not lack credibility."

The entire operation, being kept under tight wraps, began with their handing over by Bangladesh authorities, somewhere in Tripura sector to Border Security Force (BSF). The duo was flown in an Indian Air Force aircraft from Agartala to a defence airfield and was taken to an ITBP camp. Later, he was shifted to an IB safe house.

Though officials here were tight-lipped about the whole affair, even refusing to confirm the presence of the leaders in India, it has been learnt that a safe passage formula is being worked out. The possibility of Rajkhowa being arrested now seems remote, as pressure to start a dialogue has taken precedence, sources said.

Sources said the initial plan was to arrest them at Tripura border after their 'surrender' to BSF, was abandoned and instead a different strategy was adopted. The same strategy adopted in case of Sasha Choudhury and Chitraban Hazarika after Government of Bangladesh handed them over to India. Sources said Rajkhowa is a prize catch and hence the Government has adopted a different strategy to deal with him working overtime to ensure that he takes part in the peace process.

When the state has in its grasp the leader of a group waging an armed struggle against it, the sense of elation may prompt it to get carried away. The status of Arabinda Rajkhowa, the founding chairman of the outlawed United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), is enveloped in mystery. Yet the sweet feeling that he is almost captured in his lair may give New Delhi the feeling of the victor. Any rush to crush the separatist movement by force will be a mistake.

Some sections of people in Assam and other states in the North-East have been up in arms against the Indian state for decades. Crushing them with the might that the state has at its command is the option that the state has been trying all these years. New Delhi will do well to remember that armed suppression is no solution under the circumstances. Had it been so, New Delhi should have solved the problem long ago.

Chances of United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) commander-in-chief Paresh Baruah coming for talks by accepting the pre-conditions laid down by the Government seems remote as the militant leader called up a member of the People's Consultative Group (PCG) to assert that the struggle for sovereignty of Assam would continue.

The ULFA C-in-C called up PCG member Hiranya Saikia to assert that the struggle would continue even if some members of the outfit have come forward for talks by giving up the demand and ideology of the ULFA. When contacted, Saikia confirmed the phone call and said that the ULFA C -in-C was very assertive. "He said that if any member of the outfit gives up the demand for sovereignty and come for talks with the Government they are free to do so. He also asserted that he would not give up the demand and ideology of the outfit and is ready to continue the struggle for which more than 11,000 youths laid down their lives," Saikia said.

With the "deal" being offered to Rajkhowa by the government coming into focus, experts said Gogoi was acting as a front man for the Centre, allowing it to buy time while testing the waters with Rajkhowa to avoid embarrassment over the issue. Echoing home minister P Chidambaram -- who has told Parliament he expects a political statement from the Ulfa soon and that the Centre was ready for talks if the outfit gave up its sovereignty demand -- Gogoi said the government was ready to "discuss anything" with Rajkhowa, except "sovereignty".

According to sources, Rajkhowa is waiting for Baruah's reply before issuing a formal statement on joining talks. That reply could come as early as Friday. The Centre's strategy to mount pressure on the elusive Baruah was reflected in Gogoi's words. On Thursday, the CM told a press conference, "If Paresh Baruah comes, it is well and good. If he doesn't, we should still go ahead with the talks. This is the decision of the people of Assam to end violence. The Naga talks were held without Phizo. Ulfa can do it too," Gogoi said. He refused to believe peace talks without Baruah would be fruitless. "We want to go step by step. Someday, he (Baruah), too, will come and join the peace stream," he added.

Officials said the government could offer Rajkhowa two options - denounce the Ulfa and give up violence and the sovereignty demand in exchange for safe passage or be projected as a militant leader who surrendered in Bangladesh and was handed over to India. Lot of critics are voicing their displeasure of such kid glove treatment to ULFA leaders by the government, despite their violent past and connection with Pakistan’s ISI.

However, considering India’s security forces being stretched out to contain other hotspots like Kashmir, the disturbed belt of Red corridor, they cannot let go the opportunity to strike a peace accord with ULFA, which has been waging a violent battle against the state, in the sensitive North Eastern region, for 30 years.

Meanwhile, ULFA is firm on its demand for sovereignty despite the arrest of its top leaders, the group's 'vice chairman' Pradip Gogoi said and accused the Bangladesh government of betraying it. "After Bhutan (referring to the operations of Royal Bhutan Army in 2003 to flush out northeast rebels), Bangladesh has betrayed us, and they (Government) should be prepared to face the consequences," the jailed leader said.

BANGLADESHIS ARE PAKISTANIS, NOT INDIANS; SEND THEM BACK

61 years ago, India was divided on the basis of religion and Pakistan was carved out as the home of India's Muslims. In the west Punjabi Muslims and in the east Bengali Muslims, chose religion over ethnicity, and the states of Punjab and Bengal were divided to become parts of two hostile nations. In 1971, Bengali Muslims of East Pakistan rose in revolt against the domination of the numerically fewer Muslims of West Pakistan. With India's help, they broke away from that Islamic nation. But, and this is the significant part, they still did not choose ethnicity over religion to revert to India. Instead, they established a new religion based country, somewhat misleadingly called Bangladesh.

With the creation of Bangladesh, the implacable hostility that marked relations between India and erstwhile East Pakistan did get dissolved in the first few years. But, after Mujibur Rehman was assassinated in 1975, a chill began to develop in India's relations with Bangladesh and it has only grown since. Bangladesh is now 'home' to secessionist groups of India's North Eastern states, Pakistan's ISI and other Islamic jehadi elements linked to, and drawing inspiration from, similar elements of Pakistan that have been actively engaged in spreading terror in India.

Before Bangladesh was created, millions of Bangladeshis took refuge in India to escape the atrocities that the Pakistani Army was committing in East Pakistan. After General AAK Niazi surrendered to General JS Arora, they should have all gone back to their country. Instead, many of them chose to stay on in India as it offered better opportunities and, this needs to be noted, Indian Bengalis and Assamese let them stay on, and even take on Indian citizenship. Something like this could just not have happened in the western part of India with respect to non-Bengali Pakistanis.

India's political parties, always on the look out for enhancing their 'vote banks', actively encouraged this process not just immediately after 1971 but even later and continue to do so till now. As a result, a startlingly large number of Bangladeshi Muslims who illegally entered India have made it their permanent home, dramatically altering the demographic pattern in many districts in Assam and even West Bengal.

What has been the response of successive Congress governments to this 'invasion' which has now assumed really dangerous proportions?

Detection of foreigners in India is done under the Foreigners Act 1946. As per this Act, the onus of proving one's nationality rests on the accused. But in Assam, which has witnessed the largest influx of Bangladeshis, this Act was replaced by the IMDT Act by Indira Gandhi in 1983. In one stroke, the onus of proving that an individual was not an Indian was shifted from the individual to the complainant and the police, and the procedures for doing so were made so cumbersome that it became virtually impossible to prove that an illegal immigrant was not an Indian. Why was this done? Only so that the Congress party could win elections in the state with help of the citizens of the very country that had broken away from India.

In 2005, the IMDT Act was struck down by the Supreme Court as unconstitutional. The Honourable court had then itself warned that "Assam is facing external aggression and internal disturbance on account of large-scale illegal migration of Bangladeshi nationals." It had also warned the government that if the illegal migration was not immediately stopped and foreigners were not deported, the situation would soon go out of control.

It is not the Supreme Court alone that has warned the government. In 1998, the then Governor of Assam, General SK Sinha had , in a detailed report to the Centre, warned that as important as the the Kashmir dispute was the one involving the influx of Bangladeshis, almost exclusively Muslims, into the North East. "We can ill afford to ignore the demographic invasion from that country." General Sinha had also brought out that Bangladesh was continuing to pursue the systematic agenda of pro-Pakistani leaders before Independence to include Assam and adjoining areas in Bangladesh (East Pakistan). Warning against the mixing of religion and policy on illegal immigration, he had added: " The dangerous consequence of large scale illegal immigration...need to be emphatically stressed. No misconceived and mistaken notion of secularism should be allowed to come in the way of doing so."

The Army has also been repeatedly warning the government about the the fast changing demographics of Assam and the fact that the top leadership of the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) was enjoying the hospitality of Bangladesh government and had joined hands with the the Bangladeshi Islamic terrorist outfit HUJI and Pakistan's ISI to sustain its operations in Assam that had taken the shape of an industry with an annual turnover running into thousands of crores of rupees.

Notwithstanding all these warnings and many more, successive governments have done nothing at all to tackle the problem at its root. On the contrary, illegal migrations continue unabated. No politician has the courage and patriotism to place national interest above the demands of his vote bank. Similarly, the Army has been repeatedly asked to take it foot off the pedal by either declaring a cease fire or "going slow" whenever it has come close to breaking the ULFA's backbone. Why has that been done? Politicians are fully involved in ULFA's flourishing racket and are making a neat pile out of it too.

The changes in the demographics of Assam are just too serious to be ignored any longer. A report in The Times of India of October 31, 2008, has highlighted in some detail the swift changes that are taking place, making the already volatile brew of ethnic and communal politics more potent. Assamese speakers have already declined from 57.81% to 48.80%, becoming a minority in their own state. As per the Congress government's own reluctant admission and almost certainly suppressed figures, in 2004 there were 50 lakh Bangladeshis illegally living in Assam. This map and chart published in the paper graphically brings out the disproportionate growth of Muslims in the six districts of the state where Muslims are already in a majority. In addition, there are as many districts where Muslims number between 35% and 50% of the population, and are growing at a much faster rate.

These systematic and manifestly well planned changes have created a very dangerous situation in Assam. This month has already seen two major incidents which point to very dark and difficult days ahead. In early October, nearly a lakh Bodos were forced by Muslims waving Islamic flags to flee from their homes and take shelter in relief camps, where they still are, unable to claim back their dwellings. In the deadliest terror attack anywhere in India in 2008, 13 serial blasts rocked Assam yesterday, killing 61 and injuring over 300. The ULFA has denied its involvement in these blasts which have targeted indigenous Assamese and it is almost certain that the HUJI is responsible for them.

It is time for India to remember that Bangladesh is just another Pakistan with a different name. As far as India is concerned, illegal entry of a Bangaldeshi into India should be treated no differently from that of a Pakistani, for which India rightly continues to display zero tolerance. Both these countries were carved out of India solely on the basis of religion and both continue to pursue a hostile attitude towards it. Bangladesh, being militarily weak, is not in a position to articulate its stance and flex its muscles as blatantly as Pakistan does. That weakness should not fool anyone into complacence and a false sense of security.

Unfortunately, India's political leaders have badly compromised the nation's security by turning a blind eye to - even welcoming - the teeming millions who have illegally entered this country from Bangladesh and settled down in almost all parts of the country. The level to which leading politicians can sink was only recently demonstrated by Ram Vilas Paswan, a Minister in India's cabinet. Without a trace of shame, he demanded that all Bangladeshis in India be given Indian citizenship. Paswan is manifestly so blinded by his greed for political power that he is even willing to 'sell his mother' to get it.

Paswan and his ilk cannot get even one Bangladeshi to settle in Kashmir and become the subject of that state. Kashmiri Muslims of the Valley are not willing to let the brotherhood of Islam make them ignore demographics. But to our politicians nothing matters but votes, no matter what the price the nation has to pay.

Assam is on its way to being swamped by Bangladeshis. The dream of some pre-independence leaders to convert Assam into Pakistan is being rapidly turned into reality by India's so called secular leaders unwilling to look beyond their votes. The bordering areas of West Bengal have also been allowed to be demographically altered by the commies of that state with precisely the same objective. Bangladeshis have also comfortably settled in large numbers all over India. The serious threat that these developments pose to India's security has been brought home many times already and cannot be ignored any longer.

It is time for India to realise that though they may call themselves Bangladeshis, as far as India is concerned, they were and are Pakistanis in spirit. They are not Indians. They pose the same threat to India that Pakistan and Pakistanis do. India cannot have them living on its territory. India needs to send them back to their chosen land. And India needs to that fast.

This post has also been published by Reuters.com
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To get a comprehensive view of the historical roots of this problem and others that have plagued Assam, readers MUST read this outstanding post written by Shubho:
The tragedy called Assam