Showing posts with label indian communists. Show all posts
Showing posts with label indian communists. Show all posts

Saturday, May 21, 2011

CAN BENGAL'S DURGA BECOME LAKSHMI?

Long after it became history elsewhere, communism has fallen in its last bastion. “Hindu” West Bengal has, at long, long last, freed itself of another foreign yoke, one that it had enthusiastically embraced three decades after India had freed itself of a colonial one, and one it had all but surrendered to. It had to take Bengal’s own Ma Durga to appear in flesh and blood to slay this alien Mahishasur who had not only terrorised ordinary Bengalis for the better part of three decades but had also ensured that the state fell back along all parameters of development to become one of the poorest, though still intellectually pretentious, states of India.

Shorn of sophisticated and sometimes unintelligible jargon, there is much in common between communism and ‘Ladenism’. Both promise utopia but in practice deliver hell. Across the world, communism went horribly wrong, as it had to, because of the explosive marriage of an uncompromising ideology with the absolute power of the ruling dictatorship. As a result, it morphed into an almost fanatical religion, with a revealed text whose interpreters dictated the rigid path to be followed, without deviation, to reach the promised materialistic paradise – minus the sex -- on earth itself. To achieve their objective, communist ‘jihadis,’ as it were, destroyed or took control of all independent sources of power, such as the church, the professions, private businesses, schools, and, of course, the family. Non-believers were simply eliminated in cold blood. The net result was a hell that had to fail. Had the elusive heaven been promised in the unseen world beyond, communism would almost certainly have been alive and killing today.

It is worth digressing a little more to put in perspective some of the horrors that communism unleashed in its run of almost nine decades in different parts of the world before it collapsed, in most cases dramatically and in a few, particularly China, almost imperceptibly. According to some estimates, communists murdered close to 110,000,000 people, several times more than the 38,000,000 killed in wars fought in the 20th Century. The Soviet Union heads the list of communist mass murderers, apparently killing nearly 61,000,000 people. Stalin himself was responsible for almost 43,000,000 of these. Most of the deaths, perhaps around 39,000,000, were due to forced labor in gulag. Communist China, which during Mao’s Cultural Revolution alone saw over 10,000,000 murdered, is the second on the list. By far, the most deadly of all was the Khmer Rouge of Cambodia who killed some 2,000,000 people between April 1975 and December 1978, out of a population of just around 7,000,000.

The communist heaven-turned-hell may not have manifested in all its ugliness in West Bengal, but that is only because it had to remain subservient to democracy as it was unable to extend its rule over the whole of India. But, despite this fundamental and, for India, fortunate limitation, wherever and whenever it could, it did show its ugly, dangerous, intolerant fangs. It is no secret that had it not been for the passive acceptance of brutal intimidation by the cadres and scientific rigging by them during elections, communists would not have been able to rule the state for 34 years. In fact had Mamata Banerjee not appeared in the ferocious Warrior-Goddess mode that she did to fight them relentlessly for 15 long years, docile Bengalis who, in my view, have a fundamental weakness in their collective psyche, would have continued to suffer while their “intellectual” gas bags would have kept producing tons of copy-pasted garbage divorced from them and their painful reality.

That is one reason why not only are leading communist ideologues not contrite about what they have done to their people and their land, but are actually confident of making a come back five years down the line, un-chastened, unchanged. Much like some of us who, no matter what happens, trust Pakistan more than we do our some of our own, they remain detached from reality and continue to repose faith in a dead ideology that has caused unprecedented human suffering almost wherever it has been in command. Their cockiness may not be entirely misplaced.

After taking over as Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee walked to her office in Writer’s Building along with thousands of ordinary men and women, powerfully symbolising the return of power to the people in the real sense of the word. A supporter even held a placard saying that this was West Bengal’s second freedom, the first being in 1947. Dramatic scenes and scary expectations of a people for long oppressed and effectively voiceless, democracy notwithstanding.

Mamata now faces an even bigger battle than the one she has fought long and hard to emerge victorious. She is untested yet as an administrator and as a leader in power. Her record thus far, coupled with her dalliance with the Maoists and fundamentalists, not only does not inspire confidence but gives rise to serious misgivings. If she fails to deliver something substantial, sustainable and tactile, Bengalis may, without as much as a murmur, fall prey to rogues again. So much they seem to have been broken in spirit. I wonder whether she realises that the victory she has achieved is not ordinary, that the heavy weights of history and expectations rest on her frail but tough shoulders. If she can carry them and emerge triumphant, Bengalis will have something real to cheer about and be proud of after a long time.

Can she make the transition that Winston Churchill failed to? Can she win the war of peace and prosperity that she has to fight now? Can she visibly demonstrate to the people of Bengal that she has indeed saved them from the deathly clutches of Mahishasur? Can Bengal’s Durga become Lakshmi?
'

Friday, January 29, 2010

JB'S VENGAL

Guest post by Sraboney Ghose

There once lived a bhadrolok named JB…You may have heard of him…

One day at a public rally many years ago, he said that if people followed him they would become diamonds amongst pebbles…The great state of Vengal would reach heights hitherto unknown…Instead of courting favour from the moneyed and powerful, he would protect the poor and the powerless…All resources and capital would be owned by ordinary workers, everybody would be equal…

By romanticizing poverty and the underdog, he managed to get a grip on the emotional core of the Vengali…

Thus the journey began…Droves of people followed JB, some voluntarily and others forcefully…They wandered for years while Vengal went from a thriving state to a wasteland…Party members could do anything they wanted to make a buck - after all, they were just making a living…From time to time, the great leader took breaks in America and England to get away from the power cuts, heat, filth, and sweaty workers…He sampled some of the best single malts on these breaks and always returned looking younger and fresher…

30 years on, as JB lay on his death bed in his mansion, an old man came to meet him…He said, “Babu, I heard you speak at the great rally and your words touched my heart…I followed you for all these years but my life is worse than it was then…My children are uneducated and jobless and the little parcel of land I had was taken away by the government and given to an industrialist…I believed in you, but now I’m a broken man…You haven’t delivered what you had promised.”

“But I have, my dear man, I promised you equality and I have given you exactly that…I have driven away the capitalists, ambitious and educated…We are a land of mediocre and unambitious have-nots now…And the best thing is, we all live in a wasteland.”

Saying this, he slowly shut his eyes and passed away to the nether world…

Saturday, May 16, 2009

SINGH IS THE PEOPLE'S KING

All fears that the country was in for a long period of instability, with regional players holding the government and the two national parties to ransom, have been been decisively put to rest by India's astute voters. The ruling UPA, beating the best forecasts, has romped home with 260 seats, leaving the NDA far behind with 158 seats. The so-called Third and Fourth Fronts have all but evaporated.

Last year, Dr Manmohan Singh showed the steel many thought he did not have when he threatened to resign if the Indo-US Nuclear Deal did not go through. At that time, he was criticised by many media luminaries and others, including Congressmen, some of whom even questioned the right of a "nominated" Prime Minister to create a political crisis which could lead to the downfall of the government prematurely. Congress-leaning journalists like Vir Sanghvi and Vinod Mehta, in fact, tore into the PM for his obduracy which saw the 59 MP strong Left withdraw support to the UPA government.

Like me, many other Indians, notwithstanding the fact that they did not understand the intricacies of the Deal, were then behind Dr Manmohan Singh, due to the basic understanding that if a spotless, non-political man like him was taking such a strong stand that could cost him his job, it had to be for the good of the country. No one was in any doubt that he had no hidden personal agenda of the sick variety that virtually all Indian politicians do. Most also knew that Congressmen were opposing the deal only because they were putting their own continuance in power ahead of the national interest that was energising Dr Manmohan Singh.

As a result of what the nation saw then, two very significant and interrelated things happened. First was that Dr Manmohan Singh earned unprecedented admiration and respect of Indians cutting across party lines and even of those who were 'apolitical' like him. The second was that LK Advani emerged from the issue with his image badly damaged, thanks to the ugly manner in which he and the BJP opposed the Deal solely on petty political considerations and the way in which the party unsuccessfully tried to strike a dirty deal with Mulayam Yadav to overthrow the government and grab power in a hurry.

Then itself, I had questioned Advani's ability to lead his party and become the PM, and had gone to extent of recommending that it would be better if he handed over the reins of the BJP to another leader. It was clear to me at least that Advani was less than half the man that he appeared to be with Atal Bihari Vajpayee and that he just did not have it in him to inspire people. He was palpably second best when compared to Dr Manmohan Singh by a long margin. But, the BJP persisted with him out of deference to his age and seniority, and declared him its Prime Ministerial candidate.

Perhaps the most significant fall out of the Deal, which no analyst picked up then, was the big hit that the image of the Left took after it withdrew support to the government, four years after supporting it from the outside without any responsibility and after having held it to ransom repeatedly during this period. The absolute arrogance of Prakash Karat and company climaxed in the manner in which they treated Lok Sabha Speaker Som Nath Chatterjee and expelled him from the CPM, for going with the Congress on the Deal.

Now it is more than evident that the people of the two states ruled by the Left, West Bengal and Kerala, wanted to punish the Left. In Kerala, that was relatively easy because the Congress led UDF is a force to reckon with. Its win there is no surprise. But who would have ever imagined even in his wildest dreams that Mamata Banerjee would become the rallying point for the humiliating rout of the Left in its impregnable bastion, West Bengal?

No opinion or exit poll predicted that the Trinamool Congress would get 20 seats and the Congress six in West Bengal which sends 42 MPs to the Lok Sabha. No poll had foreseen that the Left would be mauled there and get just 14 seats. Overall, from 59 MPs in the previous Lok Sabha, the Left is down to just 20 now. This is as bad a fall as can be, and is the real story of this election. Yes, there are local factors that have contributed to this tight slap by the electorate. But, it is only fair to acknowledge that its arrogant and unreasonable behaviour at the Centre and its withdrawal of support to a government led by person like Dr Manmohan Singh has contributed to its unprecedented downfall from which it will find it very difficult to recover.

The BJP has suffered a defeat, but has fortuitously avoided the debacle it should have faced due to the uninspiring leadership of LK Advani. He never could match up to Dr Manmohan Singh, but did not learn that lesson despite the blunder he committed last year. That is why he mindlessly made Dr Manmohan Singh stand even taller by launching petty and bitter personal attacks on him during the elcection campaign. Fortunately for the BJP, the performance and image its Chief Ministers in Karnataka, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Bihar, where Nitish Kumar of the JD(U) is in alliance with them, saved the party from being routed. It is primarily due to them that the party has managed a face-saving tally of 118 seats against the 138 that it had last time.

I have been writing for more than a year now that in UP, the Congress must go it alone, even if it loses a few seats in the short term, as any alliance with either the SP or the BSP would only benefit those two parties and make them emerge stronger and with greater power to blackmail the Congress. A few moths back, when the Congress finally decided to go it alone, after dancing with Amar Singh for a long time, everyone was lamenting that decision saying that it would prove very costly. But I supported that decision which indicated that the Congress was finally getting serious about reviving itself in the state.

I must confess, however, that like almost everyone else, I had no clue that the revival of the Congress would become visible in these elections itself. The voting percentages are not yet known but the party has stunned everyone by getting 21/80 seats, up 11 from the paltry nine that it had got last time and within touching distance of the BSP's 22 and the SP's 23. Had the Congress got into an alliance with the SP as everyone was recommending, it would have got around 10 seats while the SP would have got more than 40 and emerged as a powerful and dangerous competitor.

Nothing exemplifies the respect of the people that Dr Manmohan Singh has earned more than the performance of the BJP in Delhi. Here, the Congress has won all seven seats. Yes, Sheila Dixit's performance as CM has been a factor. But can anyone ignore the fact that people of Delhi, where both Dr Manmohan Singh and LK Advani reside and work, have given an emphatic thumbs down to the idea of Advani taking over the top job from Manmohan? Is that also one main reason why it is the Congress and not the BJP that has performed better in neighboring states like UP, where the BJP's tally remains at 10, Haryana, where the Congress has got 9/10 and Rajasthan where its tally has shot up from four to 20/25, in both states at the expense of the BJP?

Yes, people have voted differently in various states and there is no visible overarching national factor that has led to the magnificent victory of the UPA. But, it needs to be recognised that the rout of the Left and the defeat of the BJP was firmly set in motion in July last itself when they had an avoidable and unprincipled face-off with Dr Manmohan Singh. Let us not forget that the Congress had been losing elections in state after state, barring a couple of exceptions, for the last few years. and there was nothing new done by the party to suggest that it would win the national elections. Only Dr Manmohan Singh was not a factor in any of the state elections and had virtually not campaigned in any one of them as he was not thought to be a real "leader" who could attract voters to the party.

For the Lok Sabha elections too, initially there were serious apprehensions that the Congress would surreptitiously try to place Rahul Gandhi in the Prime Minister's chair after the elections, just like Farooq Abdullah had in Kashmir by making his son Omar Abdullah the CM after the results were out. Fortunately for the Congress, Sonia Gandhi sensed the damage that this would do the party's prospects and announced that Dr Manmohan Singh was the candidate of the UPA for the top job. That declaration not only removed a lot of misgivings in people's minds but also enabled them to look closely at and compare the two main Prime Ministerial candidates.

No matter what anyone might say now about the impact that Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi have made, as many will given the sycophantic culture of the Congress within the party and in sections of the media, everyone knows that the magic of Manmohan has a lot to do with the impressive score of the UPA. Had he not been projected as PM, we would have had a very different result.

The people of India have spoken loud and clear. And this time it is they who have made Singh their King. There can be no better example than this of the strength of India's democracy and secularism, despite all its ugly warts. India's much maligned voters deserve our salute.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Readers may also read:
1. The Manmohan victory: time we got a President
2. Will the Congress do better without Sonia and Rahul?
3. Congress begins battle for revival in UP
4. Congress: from sickle to cycle
5. Nuclear Deal: Do you have it in you Mr Advani?
6. Honour your pagri Dr Manmohan Singh
7. Nuclear Deal: Singh is King

Sunday, March 8, 2009

SECULAR BADGE GOING CHEAP: SECULARISM IS DEAD

When I wrote the post "How to get the secular badge, no questions asked!", even I could not have foreseen the complete mockery of so-called secularism that has unfolded suddenly and dramatically in Orissa. The BJP and the BJD have been allies in the state for 11 years and their alliance has been one of the most successful and stable political alliances anywhere in the country.

All was seemingly going well between the two parties till yesterday when the unexpected 'Breaking News' tickers on all channels started saying that the alliance had split. Within the hour, Orissa Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik was seen putting all doubts to rest about the fate of his discussions with BJP MP Chandan Mitra. The BJD and BJP jointly fought the Lok Sabha polls in 1998, 1999 and 2004 and the assembly elections of 2000 and 2004. In both assembly polls, the BJD contested 84 seats and BJP 63. In the general elections, the BJD contested 12 seats and BJP nine. This time the BJD wanted to contest 25 more Assembly seats, in lieu of which the BJP wanted two extra Lok Sabha seats. That was not acceptable to the the BJD, seemingly flying high on its assessment that the popularity of the CM was at an all-time high.

The moment the alliance broke, Naveen Patnaik turned magically secular. It was only a few months back that he was being compared to Narendra Modi for his role in the atrocities on Christians in Kandhamal. There was no newspaper, TV channel or blog that did not tear him apart for encouraging fundamentalist Hindu groups and doing nothing whatsoever to protect Christians in the state. No one was willing to give him even an inch for anything that he or his government did to bring deep-rooted societal tensions under control. He was condemned as the worst face of communalism that India had seen in the last few years.

There is no doubt that many ordinary and truly secular Indians were genuinely upset with what they were told by the media and a galaxy of 'secular' Indian politicians about Naveen Patnaik. How were they to know that in India's political landscape a politician's character is determined solely on the basis of who he is sleeping with and not what he is doing? When Kalyan Singh, the destroyer of the Babri Masjid wore the secular jacket by joining hands with Mulayam Yadav on almost the same grounds that Patnaik left the BJP, perhaps it was only me who wrote about the hypocrisy of this secular-communal divide, a purely political creation in a field where every single party picks candidates and asks for votes on the basis of religion, part of religion or region. But, most people were willing to forgive Kalyan Singh because a lot of water had flown down the Saryu in the last 18 years.

But this unbelievable turnaround of the secular brigade in less than 24 hours after the BJP-BJD alliance broke is something that should leave no sane Indian in any doubt that India's politicians are capable of doing anything in their pursuit of political power. It tells the nation that values, ideologies, ethics - pick a few more good words of your choice - are no more than words to be dishonestly used to convince the voter to put them back into power again.

Who were the first to give a clean chit to Naveen Patnaik for all the communalism that he displayed as the CM? Indian communists. "It is a positive development. It is clear that the allies of NDA are learning lessons about BJP's communal politics out of their own experience," said CPI leader D Raja to unshackle Patnaik from all his communal crimes. So the moment he left the BJP, Patnaik left behind the responsibility for all that he was being blamed for just a couple of months back as CM of the state.

This is not all. Within 24 hours, the Left has not only extended support to the Patnaik government but has also entered into a pre-poll alliance with the BJD f0r the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections! When asked about this unholy turnaround, CPM leader Sitaram Yechury had no qualms in saying that they had always maintained that if the BJD leaves the BJP, they would join hands with it.

So was all this furore against the government for doing nothing to contain atrocities against Christians nothing but a cheap political ploy to con the minorities into voting against the BJD, as long as it was sleeping with someone else? Henceforth, notice that nothing wrong will be found by the secular parties with Patnaik's handling of the violence against Christians. The blame will conveniently be shifted to the district administration. Christian community leaders will also be quietly asked to get real and the media will pretend as if nothing had ever happened.

This is the reality of Indian politics today. Everything goes. And till it does not go my way, I will do everything I can to incite emotive voters against my opponents by making them believe all the falsehoods I utter, along with a few truths, against them. And, the moment they hop over to my side, I will absolve them of all sins without any shame whatsoever.

Get ready folks for even bigger shocks. What can be bigger than this, you might ask. Don't be surprised if after the elections, the Left and other sworn-to-secularism pretenders welcome Bal Thackeray and the Shiv Sena into the vanguard of the secular brigade with a genuinely warm hug. They will do that, have no doubt, if the arithmetic demands it.

The secular badge is going really cheap now. For politicians, secularism is dead already, bar the static. Your and my vote is getting more and more worthless by the day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Readers may also read:
1. Modi and Reddy: the choice is clear
2. Demcracy diverted: will Sonia do a Farooq?
3. Covering up the mother of all corruption scandals

Thursday, December 4, 2008

CANDLES AND BLAME-GAMES WON'T STOP AK47S

Yesterday, there were great displays of solidarity for the victims of Mumbai 11/26 across India. Thousands of Indians got together to light candles in memory of those who lost their lives in the most audacious and daring terror attack ever on India by Islamic jehadis from Pakistan. There was anger too; anger against politicians, the police and Pakistan. But, at the end of it all, it appeared that Indians, like always, had forgotten the attack and had moved back to their old pastime of fighting with each other rather than fighting the enemy who is getting bolder and more destructive with each passing day.

Even as the whole nation is almost united in its anger against Pakistan, India's commies, as always, are not able to get themselves to move beyond blaming the BJP. That they had extra-national loyalties to China was widely known, but that they would win anti-India hawks in Pakistanis too is something that no one would have ever believed, had it not been for ex-ISI chief General Hamid Gul's advice to the government of India to listen to the commies' convenient-to-Pakistan views and stop playing 'lackeys' to the US.

Sitaram Yechury, the suave commie whose columns appear regularly in the Hindustan Times, has repeatedly displayed a sickening ability to lie through his teeth to pursue his almost anti-national agenda through his columns, a few of which I have previously commented on. Writing in the paper today, he did not have a word to say against Pakistan or suggest any action plan to tackle the scourge of terror unleashed by that country. His main prescription for facing the challenge? India must invoke an obscure UN resolution passed after 9/11 which obliges all countries to deny "safe havens to those who finance, plan, support or commit terrorist acts". Of course, in what must be music to the ears of Hamid Gul and the ISI, he virtually projects his favourite whipping boy, the BJP, as a greater threat to India than Pakistan, and then goes on to say that "any cynical effort to draw political mileage and electoral dividends by perpetuating a communal divide can only give a further lease of life to such anti-national terrorists"!

In short, what Yechuri and a few of his ilk are saying is that if India has to stop those Pakistani AK47s from claiming more lives, it needs to start and win a war against one of the two principal political parties of this country. There is no need to even look towards Pakistan. Once the BJP is removed from the scene, Pakistan's Islamic terrorists, whose sole aim to claim the whole of India for Islam, will come by boats to Mumbai with flowers and 'Thank You' cards!

Acrimonious mud-slinging has also begun between various organs of the government. Despite a monumental intelligence and police failure, not one officer belonging to the IPS, the cadre which controls all police and intelligence outfits in the country, has been sacked. Similarly, not one IAS officer out of the many controlling the Home Ministry has been fired. Under intense public pressure, the government has finally sacked three politicians.

India's Naval Chief, Sureesh Mehta, reacting to suggestions that the Navy did not act on vague intelligence inputs, has lashed out the media for helping the terrorists by giving out crucial bits of information live. He has specially targetted Barkha Dutt, not just for her role in the attack on Mumbai but for a similar irresponsibility during Kargil that led to the death of three soldiers. Dutt's friend and mediocre journalist Vir Sanghvi, not surprisingly, has come out all guns blazing in her support, berating Mehta for "shamefully rehashing old, discredited lies about the media" and questioning his leadership due to which, according to him, terrorists came to Mumbai so easily.

As if all this was not bad enough, there are also the usual suspects who warn against even thinking of a military response against Pakistan. They want India to 'win the trust' of Pakistan's democratic leaders, poor guys themselves suffering from terrorism, and strengthen their hands so that they can reign in Islamic terrorists there! These guys have obviously just emerged from a time machine that had got stuck two decades back. There was democracy in Pakistan earlier too, under Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, but terrorism was only promoted, not suppressed. Why? Because, terror is a tool Pakistan has deliberately created and deployed to defeat India by inflicting on it 'a thousand cuts'. Why this basic fact has been ignored repeatedly to our peril is something that is hard to understand.

The only change now is that the Frankenstein of terror wants to establish pure Islamic rule in Pakistan too. That is why there have been attacks on Pakistani leaders who are supporting the US. But - and this is the most important part which is being foolishly overlooked - as far as India is concerned, there is no confusion at all: they are all one. That is why Talibanis currently fighting Pakistani Army in FATA have offered their men and suicide bombers to fight alongside that Army if war breaks out with India.

Two decades of talks, toothless diplomacy, restraint after Kargil and mobilisation of the Army after the terror attack on Parliament have yielded no result whatsoever. On the contrary, they have emboldened strong elements in and outside the Pakistani establishment to keep raising the terror bar gradually and increase the frequency of attacks. They know by now that India has put its testicles in deep freeze and that this country, enfeebled to the point of impotence by security-illiterate media, bureaucrats and politicians, is just not going take them out.

"Tough" diplomatic measures that are being suggested again for the nth time mean nothing at all unless the other guy knows that there is a bite behind the bark. Forget the bite, we are afraid even to bark. We are a nuclear power and a much bigger conventional military power than Pakistan. That has not stopped that country from doing what it has been in Kashmir and elsewhere in India, culminating in 11/26. Why are we afraid to respond in self defence? Are we going to allow Pakistan to bleed us to death slowly by inflicting on us a thousand cuts or are we going to at least now show the necessary national resolve needed to give them a credible, practical glimpse of the unacceptable costs and damages that they will face if they do not stop this nonsense?

Exercise of the nuclear option by Pakistan is not as easy as it sounds because of the decimating response that India is capable of giving. Short of that threshold, therefore, there is plenty that can be done to degrade and destroy jehadi elements and their masters in that country. We cannot just keep sitting back and hoping that they will be scared into stopping their merchants of death by mere "tough talk".

It is only one week since 11/26 and we have already forgotten. Petty and almost anti-national political blame-games are back. Pakistan is virtually out of the public frame. What more can those guys ask for? They are already laughing their guts out at our foolishness and fear, and are taunting us openly even on Indian television. Emboldened by our pathetic and hopelessly divided response, they must already be planning an even 'bigger and better' attack than the one that hit Mumbai. Considering that we still have learnt nothing, don't be surprised if that attack materialises much faster than we even want to think now.

We can keep holding candles all our life. That will not make Pakistan's agents of death put their 'candles' away. We light our candles to mourn and remember; they light their candles to make us mourn and not forget. If we want to stop this unending run of lighting candles of mourning, we have to stop fighting with each other and go out there and put out those who hold those candles of death and those who make them hold them. Unless we do that, there will many, many more occasions to show solidarity and helpless anger with the candles terrorists want us to keep lighting till their ideology finally puts them all out.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Readers may also read:
1. Police fighting terrorists with cars and canes: dismantle colonial IPS
2. Making India safe: cosmetic changes will not stem rot
3. Mumbai 11/26: wake up to Islamic terror, this is just the beginning

Friday, October 3, 2008

1 - 2 - 3... IT'S A DEAL!


My consistent support for the Indo-US Nuclear Deal had a commentator on my previous post accusing me of writing "a load of partisan garbage" and putting "party and idol worship ahead of country".

For once, I am proud to be so accused, now that the deal has finally cleared the last hurdle in the US, paving the way for signing of the 123 Agreement between India and the US within the next few days. All the dramatic twists and turns, the strong opposition that the deal faced both in the US and at the NSG meetings, and the reactions of our principal adversaries, China and Pakistan, should leave thinking Indians in no doubt that India has got for itself a game-changing deal that will put it in a different strategic league besides bringing in enormous economic and technology benefits.

The naysayers need to answer one simple question: what has India lost due to the deal that it had till now? It has nothing now, except the theoretical right to test a nuke bomb as a pariah state that has been living with debilitating sanctions for 34 years. What will it get due to the deal? It is going to get nuclear reactors from all countries that have the technology to build them; dual use technology will also be made available; Indian companies will over time get large orders to build and operate nuclear power plants; India will retain the right to enrich uranium for making bombs; its facilities already involved in the weapons program will remain closed to inspection as will new such facilities that India will build in the future. All this without signing the NPT or the CTBT.

What does India lose by signing the deal? Don't buy the partisan horse shit that the commies and the BJP are throwing around to attack the Prime Minister through it. CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat can do little better than call the deal "a complete surrender" to the US. So pathological is his hatred for capitalist US that he is completely blinded to the possibility of any good coming India's way from that country. That is just what the communist Chinese would expect from their "belly up" ideological comrades who take great pride in sounding more 'Chinese' than communist!

The BJP, which has covered itself with the slimy grime of partisan dishonesty and political pettiness, says that it will not hesitate to conduct another nuclear test "if the security situation and and scientific research needs so required" and that it will renegotiate the deal if it comes to power. What exactly it will renegotiate to make the deal an 'equal' deal is left either hazily vague or is indirectly addressed by criticising specific provisions related to the freedom to conduct nuclear tests in future.

Let us face one simple truth which has almost completely been ignored in this whole debate. India lost the 'right' to be recognised as a full-fledged nuclear weapon power state in the sixties itself. When China exploded its first bomb in 1964, India had the technological capability to respond, like Pakistan did when India exploded five bombs in 1998. But at that time, instead of taking that vital step to match China and force its way by right into the exclusive club, India was actually busy deflecting that challenge by mounting the weak and meek and moralistic non-proliferation horse and actually proposing an NPT!

As a result, it missed the January 1, 1967, deadline for exploding a nuke to be recognised as a member of that club that China had cleverly joined. So, when Indira Gandhi responded 10 years too late and pretended that Pokhran 1 was "a peaceful nuclear explosion", nobody bought that story and India's nuclear apartheid and membership of the large group of small, insignificant nations officially began.

Given this background and the prevailing global security situation where the dangers from nuclear proliferation are real and grave, it is nothing short of stupidity that can make anyone believe that India can be straightaway given a blank nuclear cheque when all others are denied even a small break - even if the US and a few others are convinced that India deserves and needs it. Despite that, what is the only real conditionality placed on India? If India unilaterally tests a nuclear bomb, there will be a review of the agreement and nuclear fuel supplies might be stopped.

After the blasts in 1998, Atal Bihari Vajpayee had publicly declared a unilateral moratorium on testing. Note that this was without getting anything in return. After the deal, that state continues, but with a big nuclear ticket in hand. Testing without the deal was impractical and the sanctions were hurting India. Testing after the deal is actually possible, should China or Pakistan do so, or under some other justifiable circumstances, without attracting any penalty if the US and others agree that the test is needed to meet India's genuine security requirements.

One can argue about whether the US will agree at all and that submitting to such a conditionality is compromising India's sovereignty. But before you do that, find an Indian leader who could have got you a better deal. Also ask whether it was in India's interest to remain in the state that it has been since 1964. It will then be crystal clear that should the BJP come to power after the forthcoming election, it will do little more than offer crafty explanations for living with this deal after making nominal efforts to 'renegotiate' it!

Just a few months back, many analysts had declared the deal dead, given the tremendous partisan political opposition it faced and their personal disposition towards Dr Manmohan Singh. Some media luminaries had, in fact, lambasted him for spoiling the 'malai'(cream) of greedy politicians due to his single-minded determination to push the deal by forcing a premature election, even though 'inflation was high'. For months he also braved their vicious barb that having never won an election in his life, he had no right to take away the comfort and 'perks' of power away from those who had.

To Dr Manmohan Singh what mattered most all through was the future of India; to many others what mattered was their individual present. By unwaveringly sticking to his vision, the PM has displayed the highest standards of leadership and the practical application of the ideal that, to the nation's leader, the country must always come first. In the process, he has secured his place in history as one of the great Prime Ministers of India. That was never his motivation, as a few small minds, unable to get out of muck of daily petty politics, had been alleging possibly to deflect him from his focus.

With this deal, Dr Manmohan Singh has nearly won back for India the nuclear 'war' it had lost timidly in 1964 to China. 44 years after that monumental defeat, and 34 years after India became a nuclear pariah, he has managed to recover for India almost all the ground it had lost thanks to a fudgy, moralistic and spineless world view not befitting a big country. The minor irritant of conditionality on future testing is actually a small price to pay for the benefits that will accrue to India in its efforts to claim its rightful place at the high table of world powers. Economically too there will be enormous benefits. According to one estimate, the deal will be worth $500 billion over the next 30 years.

Whichever way you look at it after putting down tinted glasses, the clear picture that emerges is that India has got a rare second shot to keep its tryst with destiny that it had all but missed decades ago. And for that, Dr Manmohan Singh deserves undiluted credit in full.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

IT'S TIME BJP EMBRACED NUCLEAR DEAL

The BJP is in a terrible bind. Of its own making. It has realised, just too late, that it has committed what may turn out to be it its greatest historical blunder by opposing the Indo-US Nuclear Deal. Dr Manmohan Singh, with a generous push from George Bush, has emerged triumphant as a PM whom the nation can blindly trust. How many Indian leaders would have staked their own chair for the sake of securing the nation’s interest? Mr LK Advani, on the other hand, has plummeted into the abyss meant for the many petty, selfish and greedy politicians who place their own interests above that of the nation.

Who does India need to thank for rightfully elevating Dr Manmohan Singh and exposing Mr Advani and the BJP? For once, the Chinese have inadvertently helped Indians to see the high ‘highs’ and the low ‘lows’ of India’s political landscape. Nail-biting and agonisingly protracted negotiations preceded the exceptional waiver that was finally granted to India by the Nuclear Suppliers Group(NSG) in Vienna. Till the last minute, there was opposition from some countries to the preferential treatment being given to India by way of a clean waiver, without it having signed the NPT and the CTBT.

At one point it appeared that the waiver would not come through. That was when the hidden hand of the Chinese was revealed. They had all along been lobbying quietly with 30 odd nations to ensure that India did not get the deal. The whole nation waited as President Bush spoke to the Chinese President and others to literally bulldoze them into a ‘unanimous’ agreement. When that finally happened in the last meeting of the NSG, the decision was tellingly greeted by silence, not clapping. In fact, the Chinese, finding that they had been exposed and defeated, chose to skip that final meeting where India emerged victorious and in another league altogether.

For really petty political considerations, spurred by greed to get into power prematurely by toppling the government, the BJP had been opposing the deal on many specious grounds, including that India’s sovereignty had been compromised. Indian communists had been saying exactly that for long. Although nobody was buying the BJP’s argument even then, the party was deluding itself into believing that its strategy of saying that it would re-negotiate the deal if it came to power was being swallowed by a gullible nation.

The Chinese have left the BJP with absolutely no place to hide. India’s commies are in any case expected to be, and were, consistent in placing ‘ideology’ over national interest even it means that they promote the interests of India’s biggest and intrinsically hostile neighbour and rival. But the BJP on the same side? A party that claims that it is a nationalist party also working against India’s interests just as the the Chinese were, only for petty political gain? That is a blot that the BJP will never be able to erase.

Already, the party is looking for a way out. Unfortunately, seeing the way some of its leaders have conducted themselves during the past few months, there is little doubt that it will again look for a less than honourable and a dishonest and devious way to make peace with what will prove to be a historic deal for this country.

Swapan Dasgupta has already started that process. Writing in The Times of India of September 10, 2008, he admits that the BJP “cannot escape the opprobrium for refusing to share India’s moment of glory last Saturday” and that the party is in the “bizarre predicament of appearing on the same side as China.” He further goes on to say that the party has to now accept the deal and deliberate how best it can use it to promote India’s interests if it comes to power next year.

Even before the 123 Agreement has been cleared by the US Congress, the US is saying that its next aim is to make India a “full partner” in the NSG as it believes that such a status for India is important from a “strategic, political, economic and energy standpoint.” India has not even thought that far ahead yet for itself, which gives a clear idea of the vacuum of strategic planning that exists at the highest levels in a hierarchy dominated by generalist career bureaucrats who have neither the ability nor the motivation to look beyond protecting cadre supremacy. Putting dysfunctional pettiness above national interest is a malaise that afflicts not just India’s politicians.

The enormous benefits that will accrue to India due to the Nuclear Deal are becoming increasingly visible. As India opens up for nuclear trade, it will generate worldwide business worth $40 billion. India plans to set up 24 imported nuclear power plants in the next 11 to 15 years. As per the CII, the NSG green signal has directly opened up opportunities worth Rs 1,20,000 crore for global and Indian firms over the next 15 years. The benefits of the waiver will also be visible in other hi-technology areas like pharma, space, defence, chemicals, robotics, engineering, electronics etc.

All these economic benefits will not worry the Chinese in the least. What concerns them is the fact that with this deal, India will be in a position to quickly address the hopeless asymmetry that exists between these two giant Asian countries in their nuclear weapon and delivery system capabilities. That is why they tried to sabotage the NSG waiver. They were sure that India was not bartering away its sovereignty and becoming a vassal state of the US. It is not believable that these elementary facts were not known to the BJP too. Yet, the party chose to place itself above the nation. That is about as close to treason as you can get without attracting the charge.

LK Advani missed a historic opportunity to be on the side of India when he forced the government to seek a confidence vote in Parliament on the issue, in the fond hope that the government would be defeated and he would become Prime Minister. That is a blunder from which neither he nor the BJP will recover in hurry. But, the party still does not appear to have learnt the right lesson.

The US is in the middle of a closely fought Presidential election. That has not prevented Obama from supporting the NSG waiver and the 123 Agreement, even though the hated Bush is going to claim all the credit for it. The US would probably never have become the great nation it is had its politicians not shown the wisdom to display honest bipartisanship where it mattered to the country. That is one lesson that India needs to learn in a hurry.

It is no doubt too late for the BJP to recover anything from the wreckage of its stand on the Nuclear Deal. But that is no reason for it to compound its folly by adopting a deviously distorted stance that pretends to justify its opposition to the deal while making grudging peace with it. Arun Shourie is a master without parallel at dissecting every alphabet in a text. Unfortunately, in doing so, he sometimes loses sight of the big picture that matters. That is what his party needs to look at now.

The BJP will do itself and the country great good if it accepts and unflinchingly embraces and celebrates the Nuclear Deal. It is time for the party to manfully accept that it made an honest mistake. That is only way for it minimise the self inflicted damage to its image. Unfortunately, the dismal record of India’s politicians suggests that the BJP will continue to indulge in petty nit picking and wind up harming itself even more.

Let us see whether LK Advani can show some real bipartisan leadership and a bit of statesmanship even at this late stage.

This post was also published by Reuters.com

Saturday, September 6, 2008

IT'S A KING'S DEAL AT VIENNA!

After days of agonisingly difficult negotiations with the Nuclear Suppliers Group(NSG) in Vienna, India has got the Deal. Is it a sell out to the US as the Communists and even the BJP claim or is it a historic deal, as Dr Manmohan Singh thinks it is?

For most who do not either understand the fine intricacies of the Indo-US Nuclear Deal or do not wholly buy the statements of Indian politicians, the litmus test is simple. Just look at who is opposing the deal and you will know where the truth lies.

It has now emerged that China had been quietly lobbying hard with at least 30 members of the NSG to ensure that India does not get the unprecedented, unconditional waver that it finally has. The other country who had been in league with the Chinese to see to it that this meeting of the NSG ended without the unanimity needed to push the deal through was, you guessed it, Pakistan.

Had the Chinese succeeded, it is possible that India’s nuclear isolation would have continued for long. With President Bush, due to whose relentless push the NSG finally came around, demitting office in a couple of months, this ok was critical so that Bush could get the Congress to give its approval to the Deal during his Presidency.

The Chinese were acutely aware that India’s commies were perfectly aligned with them in their opposition to the deal. One can keep arguing about the reasons behind that coincidence but the harsh fact cannot be ignored. Then, they had an unexpected stroke of luck when India’s supposedly ‘nationalist’ party, the BJP, chose to prefer petty politics over national interest, and started speaking in the voice of India’s communists.

Had this deal not been sealed with the NSG in Vienna, with elections due in India, there was a strong possibility that this ‘tide in the affairs of men’ would have been missed forever. This was a very small window in which everything was falling in place in favour of India, including the personal commitment of the US President, supported by his administration. The Chinese knew that had they succeeding in shutting India out in Vienna today, lack of political consensus in India would have ensured that India would have remained out in the cold for a long time.

Fortunately for India, Bush also knew what the Chinese knew and he moved swiftly and decisively to shut them out and get the NSG to open the doors for India. It is only because of the intense pressure generated by him that China finally retracted its concealed fangs and the other countries who were strongly opposed to the deal caved in today. While we may justifiably claim the credit for this success, it is worth remembering that it is Bush who finally swung it around for us.

The significance of the unconditional waver give by the NSG to India can also be gauged from the telling fact that the stung Chinese stayed away from the NSG meeting today. Surely the Chinese are not upset because India will now be able to generate 20,000 MW of power by 2020 by setting up more nuclear power plants!

This deal has grave long term implications for China, a fact well known to them, even though India has not spoken about it. India today has joined the big league of nuclear powers by getting them to open their firmly shut doors to let in India alone. Now, India can legitimately and legally pursue its goal of building a credible strategic nuclear capability which will radically alter the hopelessly skewed balance of power between India and China.

Till now, China, which had raced ahead and achieved the status of the one and only unchallenged military power in Asia, was beyond India's reach. Till now, India had no hope in hell of closing the huge nuclear gap between the two nations to a level of acceptable comfort and credible deterrence. Till now, India was hopelessly vulnerable to China’s possible future designs on Arunachal Pradesh and other bits of Indian territory claimed by it for long.

From now on, India can access technology and materials to quickly regain the position that it had meekly and, it must be said, foolishly surrendered to its intrinsically hostile neighbour. From now on, should it finally choose to, and as it should have done long back, India can stop benchmarking its strength against a small country one third its size.

India’s commies, due to ideological loyalties, and the BJP, due to political pettiness, are shouting hoarse that India has sold out to the US. India, they say, has surrendered its sovereign right to conduct nuclear tests in future. It has to be lack of intelligence and/or blatant intellectual dishonesty that can make someone make that kind of statement. Which country is going to give India a carte blanche to explode nuclear bombs without a serious reaction from the rest of the world and a possible collapse of the NPT regime?

Let us be real. India has already pledged not to carry out further tests voluntarily. Yet, it reserves its sovereign right to carry out further test should a need arise. Similarly, other countries reserve their sovereign right to react in the manner they deem fit, should India choose to explode a device in future. This imposes a certain responsibility on India to desist from doing so on a whim or to make an irresponsible political statement to its internal constituency. Considering the kind of leaders that India is throwing up within striking distance of the PM’s chair, that danger is very real.

Therefore, if a situation arises in future that necessitates a nuclear test, India will carry it out as a responsible nuclear power, after consultations with the Americans and others. If that constraint is unacceptable to the BJP, then that party is not fit to run this country. If it is just posturing for political gain, then it is even more unfit to govern.

Dr Manmohan Singh deserves all the praise for taking on the entire opposition and even the hungry-for-power-at-all-costs members of his own party to see the success signal from Vienna. No NPT, no CTBT. This so called lame-duck, ‘nikamma’ Prime Minister who many said was the weakest PM India has ever had, has got a victory for India that every Indian can be proud of. It is indeed a historic victory which will catapult India into the big league where it should have been three decades back and where it most definitely belongs in the 21st century.

Singh, you indeed are King.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Readers may also like to read the following posts:

1. Nuclear Deal: Do you have it in you Mr Advani?
2.Nuclear Deal politics: Singh is Kinng
3. Nuclear Deal:It's your pagri again Dr Manmohan

Friday, August 1, 2008

IS MODI BJP'S ANSWER TO THE MANMOHAN MAYAWATI CHALLENGE?

The BJP has been surprisingly losing its plot for the last few months. It is in power in more states than any other party and has been successfully routing the Congress in state after state. With LK Advani having been formally appointed its Prime Ministerial candidate, one would have thought that a confident BJP would be fully alive to its responsibility as it readies to form the next government at the Centre after the forthcoming elections.

I have already written in detail earlier about how Mr LK Advani messed up the opportunity presented by the Indo-US Nuclear Deal to show his statesmanship. Not only did he lose that chance to enhance his stature(and perhaps get more votes too), he also got involved in shady deals to topple the government, very personal attacks on the PM, and the plan to show to the world, live, the depths to which our Parliament has sunk. In the aftermath of the serial blasts in Ahmedabad, he was back to the only song on his track – POTA – to discredit the central government, though the attacks were in a state ruled by his own party.

Mr Advani has not yet displayed the ability to see and react to developments around him as a visionary PM of the largest democracy should. This inability – many will disagree – gets heightened because the present PM, in the face of great constraints, has all along displayed remarkable civility and dignity behoving the high office that he occupies. Due to this demonstrated lack of well balanced leadership and the shaky ethics that he has embraced, Advani finds himself rudely pushed aside from the front runner’s position in the race for the Prime Minister’s chair.

From nowhere, Mayawati has erupted with unexpected strength as possibly the strongest candidate with almost the entire opposition, including the Left, rallying behind her. This ‘daughter of a dalit’ may well have become the PM in July itself had the UPA lost the Trust Vote. That did not happen, but Advani’s decision to needlessly crank up and unwittingly help polarise the political atmosphere into three distinct groups has Mayawati smelling unexpected victory after the elections. And she is not the one who lets an opportunity go. On the contrary, she creates one where no one else sees it. She has always surprised everyone by her audacious moves and left them licking their wounds. There is nothing to suggest that she is going to let this ‘Advani-sent’ opportunity slip out of her hands this time.

Manmohan Singh, till recently the lonely fall guy of the Congress with barely a voice, can also thank Advani for getting him into an avoidable fight which has made him ‘king'. From the weak and ineffective PM that the commies had repeatedly made him appear, he has overnight become the decisive and firm PM who is willing to take the big risks to do something he really believes in, an admirable quality rarely seen in this era of coalition politics. More than that, Advani’s blunders have enabled Manmohan to kill two birds in one stroke: the commies and Advani himself. The gentle guy who got the job thanks to Sonia Gandhi suddenly appears to be the best and most credible candidate that the UPA can project as the next PM. There never was a real alternative available; Advani has just made him look like a very good choice, even better than himself.

Ever since Narendra Modi overcame perhaps the most relentless and vicious personal campaign ever launched against a political leader, to achieve an unprecedented victory in elections to the Gujarat Assembly last year, there has been talk that he has it in him to become the Prime Minister of India. Of course his political opponents, sections of the media and certain other organizations will not let the ghost of 2002 riots go away from him.

The fact the he has been indisputably India's best Chief Minister who has put his state on a blazing path of progress, that his personal integrity is exceptonal and that he has rare leadership qualities, is sought to be drowned by them in the fiery pool of 2002. That strategy, disconnected from real Indians, is likely to prove counterproductive and bring Modi and the BJP rich dividends across the country, quite like it has in Gujarat.

The 16 bombs that blasted in Ahmedabad and the 21 that did not in Surat were possibly meant not just to terrorise ordinary citizens. They may also have been deployed as almost the perfect tools to get Modi agitated and either encourage something akin to 2002, or make communally incendiary statements which could be used to keep discrediting him. In the event, Modi surprised all by reacting and speaking very responsibly, appealing to the people of Gujarat to remain calm and maintain peace and the pace of economic growth that they have achieved. Like a national leader, he spoke about the blasts as being part of the proxy war that has been unleashed on India, a war that has to be fought and won by the nation. He also showed rarely seen political bipartisanship and dignity during the visits of the PM and Sonia Gandhi to Gujarat, and avoided falling into the trap of the mindless blame games which achieve little more than vitiating the political atmosphere.

Contrast this to the insane allegation made by BJP leader Sushma Swaraj that the blasts were a Congress party conspiracy. Even Advani did not cover himself in glory by giving the blasts the usual petty political hue that makes any serious effort to tackle this problem almost impossible. In fact, among BJP leaders, it was only Modi who emerged from the blasts with his image enhanced.

The events of the last few months seem to have done the impossible for the BJP. From a position of near certain victory, bolstered hugely by galloping inflation, the party finds itself in a very difficult situation. It has created two formidable opponents: a much taller Manmohan Singh and an almost unstoppable Mayawati. In hindsight, it is unbelievable that a party with so many strategists would shoot itself in not one but both its feet. Greed for power and focus on the petty side of politics often makes otherwise sensible people do many strange things which they would never normally even think of doing.

Without Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Lal Krishna Advani seems less than half. Without the glow of Vajpayee’s wisdom to light him up, Advani looks a lot smaller and paler than he ever did. He is also well past his prime and is no longer capable of firing the imagination of his own party men, forget the voters. Under his sole leadership, the BJP has started floundering even in a position of strength. The way things are going, chances are that the party may fare even worse than it did in the last elections. If that happens, it may well face the most unpalatable prospect of supporting a Mayawati led government. If it refuses to do so, the damage to it will be demoralising; if it does, the damage to Advani will be devastating.

Contrary to what Sushma Swaraj believes, the BJP may well stand to benefit from the series of terror attacks that have been taking place all over the country over the last few years. The Parliament may have been attacked when the party was in power. There may have been other terror attacks too during that period, but the widespread perception, rightly or wrongly, is that the BJP was serious about tackling terror while the Congress is not. However, under the ageing Advani’s leadership, the BJP is not likely to benefit from the deteriorating security situation, something it easily should be able to do without getting involved in abusive personal and political attacks.

Narendra Modi is already looked upon by many as the next leader of the BJP, even the country, after Advani. There is another top-notch performer, BC Khanduri, Chief Minister of Uttarakhand, who fits the bill equally well. But this retired General is a late entrant into politics and does not have an RSS background. Advani is the declared leader of the BJP for the next elections. As things stand now, Modi will most likely succeed him to fight the elections scheduled for 2014.

The sudden emergence of Mayawati and the ‘new and improved’ Manmohan Singh the King, has made the BJP’s task very difficult indeed. Advani has so far not shown the leadership qualities that should automatically make him the weapon of choice to take on and trounce these two very formidable opponents. If the situation keeps drifting in the manner it has been for the last few months, the party will be nowhere near power after the next elections; it could, in fact, shrink embarrassingly.

Should the BJP stick to its Plan A and continue with Advani as its leader and projected PM? Or is time for Advani to gracefully step aside and let the party project its strongest bet, the leader who has dramatically demonstrated his ability to fight and win against all the odds and some more, as its Prime Ministerial candidate? If the Nehru-Gandhi family can swallow its pride and project Manmohan again, why can Advani not step aside in favour of someone else who can better combat the vastly changed situation?

Is Narendra Modi the right and only answer that the BJP has to thwart the unexpected challenge posed by Mayawati and Manmohan? Does he have it in him to lead the nation? Has his time already come? To many the answers are all in the affirmative. To others, even the thought of Modi becoming PM is unacceptable.

No matter what your take on Modi is, one thing is certain. If he jumps into the fray as the leader of the BJP, the effect will be electrifying. The BJP will be rejuvenated and keyed up to take others on. Its opponents will also know that the fight on their hands is going to be really tough. And, the election results may surprise a lot of us.

You may also like to read this post of April 29, 2009: Desperately seeking Modi: Too Late?

Thursday, July 24, 2008

SINGH - KING, MANMOHAN - DHANMOHAN


Singh is now officially King. The politician by accident is now the consummate strategist. The lame-duck Prime Minister is now the ‘I'll-take-the-duck’ PM. Manmohan, the one who attracts others with his qualities, may now also have become ‘Dhanmohan’, the one who does the same with his money.

Dr Manmohan Singh was never like he was in the few days before he faced a Confidence Vote on July 22, 2008. The surprising spring in his stride, his never before seen body language exuding supreme confidence, and his emphatic thumbs up as well as victory signs flashed with real purpose to TV cameras, were clear signs that he had managed to get the magic numbers of MPs required to get that vote required to push the Indo-US Nuclear Deal through. And when the vote did take place, after Parliament had been disgraced by the flashing of bribe money in the House, Manmohan Singh signalled to the whole world that he had, finally, arrived as the determined and decisive Prime Minister nobody ever thought he was.

To be fair to Dr Manmohan Singh, he had more limitations and constraints placed on his functioning as the PM than any PM has had so far. To begin with, he got the job solely because he was handpicked by the real leader of the Congress, Sonia Gandhi, when she found that her foreign origins were going to make it impossible for her to become and remain the PM. The party was with Sonia, not with the PM. As if this was not a bad enough constraint, his government was completely dependent on the Left for its survival.

Manmohan proved to be the perfect choice as far as Sonia was concerned. They made and ran a great team in which there was never a danger that needless and dysfunctional suspicion and difference of opinion would derail the trust that they both had in each other.

It was the Left that almost succeeded in pushing Manmohan into historical obscurity by just not letting him get on with the task of implementing key economic reforms that are vital if India has to get into the next orbit of progress and prosperity. The economic dream team of Manmohan, Chidambaram and Ahluwalia could do little but dream about the day when they would actually be able to get a real move on. That stagnant situation for which the country has already paid a price would perhaps have continued till the elections next year. And, Dr Manmohan Singh would have then quickly faded away into obscurity, with all the charges made by Advani against him, the ‘nikamma’(no-good, worthless) PM, sticking forever like glue.

The nuclear deal that Manmohan signed with Bush was one achievement that he was convinced would earn him a place in history. But, there was little hope that it would go through, given the extremely hostile and unwavering stance of the Left and the equally extremely ridiculous negative stance of the BJP which placed petty political opportunity above national interest as seen by it. Then there was the demand to abort the deal from his own party men who did not want to risk losing out on power for even a single day, and certain media luminaries who shared their view. Almost any other ‘strong’ PM would have given in and forgotten about the deal in the face of such a relentless storm. Less than a month back, when all efforts to get the Left on board failed as they had to, almost everyone in India was convinced that Manmohan had indeed succumbed, once again, and that the deal was dead.

“They wanted to veto every single step of the negotiations which was not acceptable. They wanted me to behave as their bonded slave.” These were the strong and truthful words that Dr Manmohan Singh used in his reply to the motion of confidence on July 22, 2008. He was not allowed to deliver this speech by the opposition and had to place a written copy in the House.

That is really what the Left did to the government for more than four years and got away with it. For more than four years, the Prime Minister of the largest democracy in the world, the leader of more than a billion people was treated as a ‘bonded slave’ by a small, regional political group with proven extra-national loyalties based on an ideology that has been disgraced and dumped globally. For more than four years, leaders of this small group displayed unacceptable arrogance and irresponsibility, as they almost completely paralysed the government while pretending to support it imperiously from outside. For more than four years, these commies of India got away with murder even as, perhaps because, they refused to take any responsibility for governance or the decisions of the government by declining to be a part of it.

This blackmail and pressure that the commies, and to some extent other smaller parties too, resorted to raises the fundamental question about whether the present Parliamentary form of democracy is responsive to India’s unique social and political dynamics and whether there is an urgent need to holistically examine this issue. I have been arguing in this blog for long that this system has failed to deliver to the people of India what it was meant to, and that fundamental changes need to be made without further delay. It is time our leaders sat down and applied their minds to this seemingly intractable problem before it is too late.

By taking the fight into the commie camp and emerging triumphant, Dr Manmohan Singh has, in one surgical stroke, dispelled all notions about him as a man, a politician and a leader. Singh has proved that he is truly king, as the name and title track of the new Bollywood film, “Singh is Kinng”, loudly proclaim. But this crown is not the spotless one that one would imagine a man like Manmohan Singh wearing.

The shocking visuals of bribe money being flashed in Parliament, to cap the grave allegations that monetary and other inducements were being given in a shameless manner to secure the support/ abstention of MPs belonging to opposition parties, have sullied Manmohan’s name to some extent. He was well on the way into the hearts of most sensible Indians by his principled fight against the Left and the BJP. But, the way he first joined hands – had no choice really under the circumstances – with the Samajwadi Party whose USP is entering into and brokering sordid monetary deals, and then allowed dubious means to be used to secure a majority vote, took the sheen away from his well deserved victory.

It was a victory that was required by India. It could also have been a victory of the principles and the dignity and the superior human values that Manmohan represented. Unfortunately, the latter did not quite happen. Manmohan did become as sort of Dhanmohan for those few days before the vote took place. May be there was no choice. May be Manmohan was himself not involved in such deals, though at the very least, he was guilty of having knowingly looked the other way. Fortunately for him, the person accused of giving the bribe money displayed in Parliament was Amar Singh of the Samajwadi Party.

Even Dharmraj Yuddhishthir, the always truthful, spotless upholder of Dharma, was guilty of consciously uttering a misleading statement, if not an outright lie, to get Dronacharya to drop his weapons, which was the only way to kill him, on the battlefield of Mahabharat. Perhaps Dr Manmohan Singh has done more than that. But, a slip or two on the battlefield against a treacherous enemy is not enough to diminish his stature and belittle his terrific tenacity to do what he honestly believes is right and good for the country, no matter what the cost.

What the PM does in the next few months available to him to undo the colossal damage that the power-drunk commies caused to India while treating him as a bonded labour, will determine the real quality of the steel that he has shown he has, to the surprise of all. For now, there is little doubt that Singh is really King.

Saturday, July 5, 2008

CONGRESS: FROM SICKLE TO CYCLE


Look at the irony. Perhaps the only thing about the UPA government that will be remembered and that it can proudly claim as an achievement in the five years that it has been in power is the only decision it has taken, after much dithering, ignoring the uncompromising ideological opposition of the commies.

The most unnatural marriage of the mongoose and the snake is, finally, over. Unfortunately for the country it has come four years too late. Four years is a long time for a nation to lose to the blackmail of an ideological snake hell bent on paralysing a government with the threat of venom strong enough to kill it. The mongoose was never going to be comfortable sleeping with its arch enemy, but it still kept faking orgasms, even though it suffered humiliation upon humiliation. For what? For hanging on to power, no matter what it cost the nation.

Now that the marriage between the Congress and the commies is over bar the formalities, the Congress will get some time to sit back and objectively assess that this was a marriage of losses only. Nothing good came of it at all, either for the Congress or, and that is of greater concern to ordinary Indians, to the country. The dream economic team of Dr Manmohan Singh, P Chidambaram and Montek Singh Ahluwalia remained just that: dream team. It kept dreaming but was not allowed to push through a single worthwhile reform thanks to the commies who are still stuck in the era of the Mao and Stalin.

Who suffered? Not the commies, who were clever enough to shirk responsibility by not joining the government while retaining in full the power to dictate what they wanted. It was the Congress that paid the price, getting routed in election after election in various states across the country. Yet, no one in the party had the guts to call the marriage off, because that meant losing power.

Thanks to a determined Prime Minister who refused to give in to commie blackmail and staked his prestige to push through the Indo-US Nuclear Deal, the Congress has been forced to bite the bullet and put the commies in their place on the unwanted extremities of India’s political landscape, the only place they have to be in if India has to decisively move forward with the speed that is required for it to catch up with China. Simultaneously, to ensure that the heady brew of power is not lost for even a day, the party has gone in for what till a few days back seemed to be a most unlikely political realignment.

After throwing away the commie sickle, Sonia Gandhi has been forced to step off her stately limousine and hitch a ride on Mulayam Singh Yadav’s lowly cycle (the election symbol of the SP). For years, Mulayam Singh and his deputy Amar Singh, were political, even social, untouchables for the Congress. That made the commies doubly powerful and rendered the government totally impotent. After four torturous years with the Left, it is not just the Prime Minister’s position on the Nuclear Deal that is responsible for getting Mulayam and Sonia to ride a cycle together.

The Congress has realised that the magic that the party had expected with the entry of Rahul Gandhi into active politics has actually turned out to be some sort of a nightmare. The Prime Minister in waiting of the Congress has simply failed to enthuse voters, particularly the youth, anywhere in the country, and the party has faced an unbroken string of electoral defeats in the last couple of years. The situation in UP, the home turf of the Nehru-Gandhi family, is actually desperate.

With only about an 8 per cent share of the votes in UP, and no new voters being attracted to the party, the Congress has absolutely no hope of bettering its performance in the ensuing Lok Sabha elections. Mayawati has taken away all dalit votes in UP, and is in the process of doing so in other states too. An alliance with her, as I had warned even last year, means death. Mulayam’s SP, on the other hand, has taken away most of the Muslim votes, leaving the Congress with the votes of only the old and dying who will vote for the party no matter what, just as they have been doing since perhaps the first elections in Independent India.

Unlike Mayawati, Mulayam Yadav is, and will remain, a regional strongman confined mostly to UP. He does not threaten the Congress in other states. So, a pre-poll alliance with him in UP might prove to be beneficial to the Congress. At any rate, it will not harm the party like a tie-up with Mayawati will. That seems to be broadly the logic driving the Congress desperately into the arms of its latest honeymoon partner.

Mulayam Yadav, humbled by Mayawati in the last elections, can more than do with even the few additional votes that an alliance with the Congress might bring, helping him to emerge with more than the 39 MPs that he has now. Who knows, with the way the Congress is losing ground everywhere, that might just get him to the PM’s chair, with the Congress supporting him. That possibility will be galling to the Congress, and that may be one reason why it had been avoiding getting into bed with the SP till now.

The two national parties, Congress and BJP, have both lost considerable ground in India’s largest state. Mayawati and Mulayam have, between them, taken away their voters. And the situation is not likely to be any different within the next six months. The challenge before both of them, therefore, is how to reclaim their lost space. That is going to take a lot of hard work and a much better people-connect, along with the usual and overblown caste combos.

In UP at least, the Congress and the BJP have to realise that they are no longer fighting each other, and that trying to do that there in the next elections is only going to be mutually destructive. They both have to get their guns out for Mayawati and Mulayam if they want to have any chance of getting back into centre space. The Congress is, unfortunately, so weak that it has seems to have decided that it needs to be on life support, and for that it has chosen the lesser of the two evils, the ‘liquid oxygen’ of the old Ajit joke: the liquid will not let it live and the oxygen will not let it die. If the BJP similarly ties up with Mayawati, it will find itself with only liquid and no oxygen!

Notwithstanding what happens after the next elections, one thing is clear: the Congress has taken far too long to dump the sickle for the cycle. Had the commies been put in place much earlier, this government would have had a lot more to claim credit for besides the Indo-US Nuclear Deal. When the focus is on petty politics as a tool for pursuing political gamesmanship and not on healthy politics as a tool for delivering better governance, such blunders will continue to be made at great cost to the nation.

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

NUCLEAR DEAL POLITICS: SINGH IS KINNG

The endless politicking on the Indo-US Nuclear Deal, signed by the Government of India, eyes wide open, in 2005, has delayed its operationalisation to a point beyond which the deal will be as good as dead.

Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi were never in doubt that they would find it well nigh impossible to cobble up sufficient numbers in Parliament to keep the government going unless the Left, India’s commies, had a change of heart and went along with the government. The almost fatal mistake they made was believing that they could wear down the commies and get them to shed their visceral ideology based hatred to anything which spells US. That belief led to blunders for which the Congress has paid and will continue to pay a heavy price.

Just before the 2007 UP elections, the Congress dumped its ally, the Samajwadi Party(SP), discovering suddenly that it was a party of ruffians who were running a “goonda raj” in the state. The adjectives used by Congressmen those days for the SP were worse than below the belt stuff. In that one stroke of political foolishness, the party lost the support of 39 MPs, making it even more critically dependent on the commies. Congressmen somehow seemed to have totally forgotten that they and the commies were at the opposite ends of an irreconcilable ideological divide, and that the farcical temporary marriage of permanent political foes was based solely on their mutual hatred for the BJP.

What made the Congress take that disastrous road? As I had written in an earlier post too, the induction of Rahul Gandhi into UP politics and his decision to actively campaign for the Congress as its star campaigner made the party feel, thanks to an army of disconnected Family sycophants, that the party would dramatically improve its position in the state and emerge king maker, without whose support, no party would be able to rule.

When Mayawati emerged Empress on her own, surprising all and shocking many, the Congress started sucking up to her, with the initial objective of getting her support to get its Presidential candidate safely home. Then itself I had warned that Mayawati’s hug was the hug of death from which the Congress would emerge the loser. That realisation came a bit too late, after the Congress had suffered a series of defeats in various state elections, with the BSP eating critically into its dalit vote bank.

In another dramatic volte face in under a year, the Congress then started attacking Mayawati, cutting short the honeymoon and all but terminating the marriage. The final act was completed when on June 21, 2008, Mayawati, formally withdrew support to the ruling alliance. That took out 17 more MPs from Manmohan’s kitty.

The signs of a rapprochement between the Congress and the SP were visible as early as March this year, though both parties denied it then. The Congress had then itself quietly started preparing for the worst case scenario of the commies sticking to their guns on the Indo-US Nuclear Deal and withdrawing support to the government. The SP with 39 MPs is the biggest group that can help bail the government out once the commies and their 59 MPs formally walk out in a few days from now. If the SP plays ball, mustering the support of a few more MPs and strategically ensuring the absence/abstention of some more should not prove to be difficult task for the Congress.

In this scenario, Dr Manmohan Singh’s statement that the he sees the deal going through but does not see elections is not a wild shot of sentimental hope.

For perhaps the first time in India’s history, the ruling party/coalition and its supporters from outside are mortally afraid of facing elections even a day before the full term expires. Nobody, including the implacable commies wants elections now. Those in or on the periphery of power don’t want to lose even a day of heady power and the goodies it provides.

This across the board unwillingness to go to the people is actually the strongest weapon that this government has for mustering enough support to get the deal through. Only the commies, no matter how much they may not want elections, will not give in. Since they are stuck hopelessly in a dead-ideology trap, they cannot afford to be seen shedding it overnight just for power, particularly when it involves the US. Therefore, when it finally comes to the real crunch of defeating the government in Parliament on the nuclear deal, or as a consequence of it, you can bet that the government will manage to sail through.

In India, the power of greed can always be exploited and should never be underestimated.

Of course, the Congress will have to pay a heavy price to the SP whose support is critical. Who will be the real loser in this opportunistic, immoral and confused alliance? The answer is no different from the one about an alliance with Mayawati. The key question is: With a vote share of only about 8 per cent in UP, does the Congress have a choice? Watch this space.

A few words about the BJP. Support or otherwise of the BJP to the deal would have made no difference to the government’s chances of survival once the Left withdrew support. That is where the BJP made two terrible blunders.

That party would have grabbed such a deal gleefully had it been in power. But, since it was the Congress government led by Dr Manmohan Singh which managed to bag the deal, the BJP lost its larger sense of national responsibility and dived into the overflowing putrid stream of petty politics that has been the hallmark of India’s democracy for a long time now. The unstated reason for the BJP’s opposition to the deal was and is to deny Manmohan Singh the opportunity to ‘make history’ with this unique deal that has been offered only to India. Its inability to place national interest above petty political gamesmanship was the BJP’s first blunder. Admittedly, in India, we hardly talk on these lines yet; the BJP had a golden chance to be seen rising above the muck, but blew it. It is too late to start saying that the party will renegotiate certain provisions of the deal when it comes to power. That could and should have been said much earlier, and the deal supported.

The second blunder was its failure to realise that had it gone along with the government last year when it tried to take “the sense of the House” on the deal, it would have isolated the commies almost completely, dealing a political blow that the commies would not have recovered from for perhaps half a century. More importantly, with the deal through and the commies exposed and isolated in their withdrawal of support to the government, the Congress government may well have fallen subsequently at any time on an unexpected, even trivial issue, forcing the early elections that the BJP has been wanting.

The Indo-US Nuclear Deal is all but through. It is the triumph of Dr Manmohan Singh. He has stood up tall and firm despite an almost calumnious assault launched against him by some media barons, questioning his integrity, his legitimacy to take decisions, his disregard for electoral outcomes, his not paying heed to Sonia Gandhi who put him in the PM’s chair, his callousness in disregarding high inflation and concentrating on the deal which may not mean much to the common man etc.

The commies deserve kudos for at least sticking to their beliefs, however one may disagree with them. Surprisingly, their rigid and uncompromising stand against the deal has not drawn the kind of adverse reaction that Manmohan’s perseverance in pushing it through has, at least in some sections of the media. That is something which will baffle anybody trying to make a sense of what the hell is happening in this peculiar cauldron of India’s politics.

On July 03, 2008, the United National Progressive Alliance(UNPA), that includes Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP, will meet to finalise its stand on the nuclear deal. As is already evident, that meeting will bring the deal one critical step closer to finalisation. Then, on July 08, Dr Manmohan Singh will proceed to G-8 summit a taller, more confident Prime Minister of a billion plus people, a man who can speak his own voice. As indeed he should, no matter how he has got to the chair where the buck finally stops.

At that summit, world leaders will have no hesitation in agreeing that the erudite, soft-spoken Dr Manmohan has, finally, proved that ‘Singh is Kingg'.