IT'S A TWO-HORSE RACE TO RACE COURSE ROAD

Forget about all pre-poll surveys that have recently been carried out and the projections made by them about the outcome of the forthcoming general elections. They are already out of date. The whole electoral scenario has changed dramatically, but no one has either seen it yet or everyone wants to pretend that he hasn't. The change not ordinary, nor is it temporary. It has quietly been in the making for some years now and would have taken some more time to be visible to all. But, one event has radically altered that time-frame.

Tomorrow is already here today.

CPM general secretary Prakash Karat has been unusually enthused by Patnaik's most unexpected decision which has breathed life into the till now non-existent Third Front. Suddenly this motley group of marginal and small parties that are presently not aligned to either the BJP-led NDA or the Congress-led UPA finds that it may well be in a position to form the government with the help of elements of the NDA or the UPA, rather than vanishing into the group that emerges stronger. There is new energy in the parties that have cobbled together this alternative to the BJP and the Congress.

Prakash Karat did not know how prophetic his words were going to be when he said that Patnaik's decision to part company with the BJP was going to be the "game-changer" in these elections. It is going to change the game certainly, but not in the manner in which Karat thinks it is going to.

Perhaps even the BJP has not realised that Naveen Patnaik's sudden turn is the blessing it was looking for and is the one miracle that will get the NDA within striking distance of the magic figure of 272 MPs needed to form the government. Naveen Patnaik himself would not have dreamt that by parting company with its ally of 11 years he would become the catalyst that is going to so dramatically pre-pone the manifestation of the fundamental change already under way in the Indian political landscape.

This general election has now become a contest between Mayawati and Advani. No, I have not gone out of my mind, as you will presently discover much to your surprise. This election was not meant be seeing this contest; the fight between the BJP and the BSP was scheduled for 2014 at the earliest. But, Naveen Patnaik has changed all that.

In the 2007 assembly elections in UP, no one, except perhaps Sagarika Ghose, had given Mayawati any chance of winning and that too on her own steam alone. But when the election results came in, her BSP had an absolute majority and the Congress, despite the high-profile induction of Rahul Gandhi as its star campaigner, emerged even weaker, with just around 8% of the vote share. Mayawati had done the impossible. This is what I had written then itself:

The UP election signals a tectonic, historical shift in the societal power matrix of Hindu society. And who has Mayawati to thank, among others for seeing and grabbing the opportunity? Mr Mandal, of course, milked to death by completely opportunistic and dishonest politicians thinking they can fool the masses, simply to grab power in the next election....And, it has taken a Hindi speaking "uncultured" Dalit lady to understand the hidden, but obvious now, ramifications of Mandal...So when Mayawati, a Dalit, untouchables still in parts of India, asks Brahmins to vote for her and tells them with conviction that they do not have to go begging to anyone to get their due, it touches their raw nerve, and they willingly turn thousands of years of rigid social hierarchy upside down to seek empowerment and justice from a dalit. Mayawati has envisioned and achieved something which no politician thought she could.

After the stunning success in UP, Mayawati started earnestly to expand her base in other parts of India and put up candidates in the assembly elections that followed. Although the BSP had virtually no organisational base in most other states and no real local leaders too, Mayawati succeeded in pulling in a sufficient number of dalit voters from the Congress due to which the Congress lost in a number of constituencies across the country. The BSP did not win too because of its small base then but its presence damaged the Congress almost exclusively. That led to the Congress dubbing her a "spoiler", not realising that she was not in the political arena to make or mar the fortunes of other parties but to get to power at the Centre on her own.

Mayawati has not been putting up candidates in states other than UP to ‘spoil’ the chances of the Congress. That has been happening as a by-product of her strategy to build an all India base, like she did in UP, to eventually get enough MPs to become the Prime Minister almost entirely on her own steam. There is little doubt that Mayawati will get to South Block as the head of a truly national party that she is in the process of transforming the BSP into, in due course of time, perhaps by the next elections or the one after that. But she is in a hurry and is not willing to give up just because she does not have the numbers now.

Those who have any doubts about her openly stated ambition may recall that during the Trust Vote on the Indo-US Nuclear Deal in July 2008, there was a moment when it appeared that the government would be defeated. From nowhere, Mayawati, with just 17 MPs emerged as the almost undisputed leader of the entire non-BJP opposition, ready to take over from Dr Manmohan Singh had he lost the vote. With the entire opposition behind her, she was sure that she would be able to prevail upon the BJP to support the government of the "daughter of a dalit".

Naveen Patnaik has, unwittingly, provided Mayawati with an even better a more visible opportunity on which she has time to work on. She has apparently caught on to it in a flash while others are still stuck in the linear equation that sees the BJP's chances of winning almost completely jeopardised. That is why everyone has missed the significance of Mayawati's statement on March 15, 2009, that the BSP will fight the elections all alone and will not enter into any pre-poll alliance with anybody. This statement made just before she hosted a dinner for the leaders of the National Front is going to fundamentally impact the outcome of the election.

There should be little doubt in anyone's mind that unless Mayawati suffers serious reverses, there is no one else who she will allow to head a National Front government. Others can make all the noise they want to but that is the only way she will play the game and without her 35 to 50 MPs no National Front Government is possible. Mayawati is not one to let an opportunity go. On the contrary, she creates one where no one else can spot it. Therefore, with that issue summarily out of the way, she is now going to play a devastating "spoiler" for the Congress all over India.

By now, she has spread her wings even into the South where she held a number of successful rallies recently. Her candidates are not going to win many seats outside of UP even in these elections. But by choosing to fight alone, she has made her long term intention of emerging as a true national party absolutely clear. And there is little that anyone can do to stop her.

But what is of immediate significance is that dalits will be now more charged than ever before because they can see that there is a real chance of seeing a dalit Prime Minister emerge after this election itself. So, there are going to be many more desertions of dalit voters from the Congress to the BSP than anyone would even like to imagine now. That will hit the Congress very hard and cost it many seats, the exact number depending on local factors and the smartness of its opponents.

The scenario fits in perfectly with Mayawati's immediate as well as long term strategy. If the Congress and its allies fall well short of striking distance of the half-way mark which they cannot cover without the support of Mayawati, then the Congress will have no choice but to support a Mayawati-led government. So a poor performance by the Congress is what Mayawati wants and that is what she is going to try and ensure in all constituencies where the dalit vote can make that crucial difference between victory and defeat for the Congress.

Ironically, in many such constituencies the Congress will wind up losing to the BJP. So, the BJP will end up emerging stronger and will most likely put up a performance better than it did last time. BJP strategists need to get their data sheets out in a hurry so that they can identify and focus on such constituencies to ensure that the Congress does lose. That is where there is a dilemma for Mayawati. If the BJP-led NDA gets too close to the magic figure then she will miss the bus. Therefore, the best case scenario for her is a weakened Congress that is left with no choice but to support her as PM and a BJP that does not become strong enough to beat her to that mark.

Naveen Patnaik has turned the election on its head and all but ensured the defeat of the Congress. This scenario was going to unfold in the coming years in any case but is already upon us. Increasingly, the Congress and the BSP are targetting the same voters. In fact it would not be incorrect to say that the BSP is the Congress party with a dalit face. The growth of the BSP, therefore, has been and will be in proportion to the decline of the Congress. And, the way things are going, more and more dalits will desert the Congress for the BSP and will hasten the former's marginalisation.

Posturing apart, this election has now become a two-horse race between Mayawati and Advani, between the BSP and the BJP. The rest are going to be little more than the supporting cast. At this point it is difficult to say which of the two will emerge the winner. So, when you go out there to cast your vote, remember that your vote is going to directly or indirectly help in deciding whether it will be Mayawati or LK Advani who will be the next occupant of 7 Race Course Road.

This post has also been published by Chicago Sun Times
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Readers may also read:
1. Will the Congress do better without Sonia and Rahul?
2. The cleansing battle for Delhi begins
3. Mayawati: spoiler or saviour?
4. Mayawati's hug of death
5. Mayawati and dalit power

MAYAWATI'S 'T's TROUNCE CONGRESS'S 'R's

“Tilak, Tarazoo aur Talwar, inko maro jootey chaar.” This was the clarion call originally given by Mayawati’s BSP to awaken Dalits to challenge their thousands of years old oppression by the three upper castes, Brahmins, Kshatriyas and Vaishyas. The call was then to metaphorically shoe-beat the upper castes to actualize their potential to lead the country.

These three ‘T’s still remain the rallying point for the downtrodden. But with a difference. The call now sounds more like “ Tilak, Tarazoo aur Talwar, humse neeche baitho yaar”. Mayawati, having realized that dalits did not have sufficient numbers to get to power on their own, has changed her strategy from “beating” upper castes to “befriending” them, as long as they sit below dalits in the hierarchy of power. That strategy worked magnificently in the UP elections in May 2007 when Mayawati stormed to power on her own to the utter shock and surprise of many who thought they knew it all.

The Congress party, badly mauled in UP and in the state elections that followed, had to come up with something to reclaim its pre-eminence as the leading political party of India. It chose, both by design and accident, three ‘R’s, Reservations, Rural employment and Rahul Gandhi, to do the trick for it.

Reservations for OBCs were literally thrust upon it by HRD Minister Arjun Singh, who let the genie loose more out of spite at having been overlooked for the PM’s job than any great political acumen. It is amazing as to why politicians across the spectrum have not understood something really elementary, despite all evidence and experience. Giving more and more reservations will not get votes; it may actually cost you some votes of those who feel the pinch of reduced non-quota seats. VP Singh found that out rudely after he first unleashed Mandal. But there is a problem. Reservations will not get you votes but will certainly make the party which opposes them lose votes of those who stand to gain! So, with despicable political immorality, the moment someone utters “reservation”, every party vociferously supports it and nobody actually gains!

Rural employment, guaranteed through the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS), was the second measure announced with much fanfare and expectation of rich electoral dividends. Past experience should have shown that such schemes are guaranteed to only bleed the exchequer and feed the always open mouths of already fattened bureaucrats, politicians and other power brokers. The intended beneficiaries are always almost wholly cheated and remain squarely where they were, watching others get richer and stronger than before. So, while the babus remain in a win-win situation, no party gets the votes!

Rahul was the third and most important ‘R’ that the Congress thought, still does, would be the unmatched trump card, the brand power that would attract enough votes, particularly those of the youth, to tilt the numbers in the party’s favour. Rahul attracts crowds wherever he goes, but the engagement seems to end there itself. He visits dalit homes, sharing their meals and even spending a night with them. But that does not make them vote for him. Why? Try, if you can, to be a dalit for a moment and imagine where the three ‘T’s hit you. Besides, people are really smart. They know why he has come to them. Had Mayawati not disturbed Congress’s sleep, would he have bothered? Mayawati has forced him to come. And they also know that once Rahul comes, can Mayawati, one of their own, be far behind?

Similarly, when Rahul declines a ministerial berth in Manmohan Singh’s government, party poodles and their cousins in the media try to project it as a ‘sacrifice’ as the young man wants to concentrate on party work! The ordinary man knows that Rahul is in this business to become PM only. He will not accept lesser appointments which are for the likes of minions like Scindia and Prasad, not for royalty! Only the seriously challenged will believe that this kind of mindless servility, indeed deception, is going to win Rahul votes!

The results of the by elections in the three assembly and two Lok Sabha seats from UP announced yesterday have, therefore, come as no surprise, at least to me. Mayawati’s three ‘T’s have won all the seats for her. All talk of dalit and upper caste disenchantment with Mayawati’s rule, the effect of the Tikait challenge and the magic of the Congress’s ‘R’s has proved illusory as it had to. The impact of the larger and more fundamental societal churning that Mayawati represents has again been underestimated. To underscore the dismal failure of the strategy of the Congress, the BJP has won the lone Lok Sabha seat in neighbouring MP.

In a number of previous posts, I had written in detail that the often confused and stereotyped efforts of the Congress, sometimes displaying an amazing intelligence deficit, were not going to get the party anywhere. On the contrary Mayawati was uniquely poised to achieve a quantum jump in the number of MPs she could get into Parliament in the ensuing elections by affecting a split in the Congress, the likes of which the party had never seen before.

The results of the by elections prove that the possibility of such a development taking place has increased manifold. The process of large scale exodus from the Congress into the arms of Mayawati in states where she needs such help to start winning seats big time may well be hastened by these results. Around 100 MPs, even less, should ensure that no one other than her can become the PM after the next elections. All that she now needs to do is to skillfully attract enough Congressmen and their vote banks where she needs them most.

Knowing that power is the only currency that excites most of our politicians, don’t be surprised if the number of Congressmen wanting to jump into Mayawati’s caravan to Delhi far exceeds what we can even contemplate now.

THE 'CLEANSING' BATTLE FOR DELHI BEGINS.

The knives are out and the battle has now truly been joined in UP.

The rumblings had started some months back, after the Congress was badly mauled in the state elections that followed the one in UP last year. The bravado of dumping Mulayam Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP) on the imagined strength of Brand Rahul Gandhi had given way to the sobering reality that the Congress was falling into a bottomless pit. The strategy of trying to alternatively clutch and combat the two strong planks that had become powerful on the strength of the very vote banks that had been the property of the Congress party for decades was clearly a dismal flop.

This time, the Congress has decided that Mayawati is the one to take on and defeat in its battle to get to the seat of power in Delhi after the ensuing general elections. Leading the charge is the dynamic Rahul Gandhi who has taken it upon himself to single handedly, with a little help from mom, get Mayawati’s foot soldiers, the dalits, into the Congress camp.

Mayawati, after analysing the new challenge thrown by the Delhi Duo of the Congress, has struck back in a manner which the sophisticated and disconnected lot of analysts and politicians are dismissing as crass and not worthy of dignifying! But, the riposte is not meant for cozy drawing room analysis. It is meant for the dalits whom Rahul Gandhi is trying to get to desert Mayawati. And they, deprived of human dignity and empowerment for generations, will get that message loud and clear.

For them, when Mayawati says that Rahul Gandhi after staying in a dalit house “cleanses” himself by bathing with a special soap, followed by ‘dhoop and agarbatti’, it is a stark reminder of the reality of humiliation that many upper caste men heap on them openly in exactly that manner. We in the cities may have forgotten, but in many rural areas, upper castes still avoid physical contact with dalits, not even sharing water from the same well. And if any physical contact does take place by mistake, bathing and “purification” are the norm. But, when it comes to dalit women, contact is not avoided at all. On the contrary, the most intimate of contacts, sexual, is encouraged and actively sought on many specious grounds including the one that it prevents leprosy!

The timeless message of Mayawati’s attack on Rahul Gandhi is that only a dalit leader will, in his/her heart, treat them with dignity as equals; others are on nothing more than a pretence mission to con them for their votes.

Let us face it. Till Kanshi Ram emerged on the scene that is precisely what was happening in most parts of the country. Dr. BR Ambedkar had lit the first torch of protest against the inhuman inequalities that had risen out of the practice of the caste system. Kanshi Ram rekindled it and took it onto another level. Mayawati is now literally on the verge of actuating the full power of dalits, something that is becoming a reality only because all citizens have the equal right to vote freely and fearlessly.

Most of us know that Rahul Gandhi undergoes no “purification” as Mayawati has alleged. That does not matter. Rahul has, unfortunately, to bear the historical burden that will make most dalits believe that he does.

Mayawati has till now surprised her all her opponents and media luminaries with her political skills and extraordinary intelligence, strengthened manifold by her unbroken connect with the ordinary Indian, particularly the dalit. This latest round of her political battle with the Congress and other upper castes threatened by the rise of dalit power is only going to get nastier and more and more personal. And, there will be many more unexpected responses from Mayawati, the type bright SWOT analysts will never anticipate!

Who is going to emerge stronger at the end of it all? As far as dalits are concerned they will get even more solidly behind Mayawati in UP, thanks to the confused and unending flip-flop of the Congress, its budding friendship with old ally and Mayawati’s arch enemy Mulayam Yadav, the complete absence of credible dalit leadership at any level and the party’s total dependence on the remote and now alien to them Brand Gandhi. There will be a ripple effect in other states too where Mayawati is steadily gaining ground at the expense of the Congress. How big Mayawati can make that ripple will be crucial.

The real challenge for Mayawati is actually not the Congress at all. If she can continue to manage the environment skillfully, that party will in fact be her biggest asset, her ticket to power, at its own expense! Her real challenge is to get more and more people and parties of upper castes on her side and make them accept the leadership and supremacy of a dalit in the national power equation.

Considering the complete lack of morality and conscience that marks India’s political landscape, getting upper caste led political parties and politicians to back her, even prostrate before her, will be the least of her challenges. If she can get just enough non-dalit votes to reach a critical number in Parliament, that spectacle will happen on its own; the unfettered greed of enjoying the spoils of office and power will ensure that they will drool unashamedly and discover never heard of virtues in dalit power.

Don’t be surprised if they then discover even Ma Durga in Mayawati! To be honest, she has already shown enough courage and strength for people to see the Goddess in her. Had she not been a dalit, they would have surely seen that by now. That is the real “cleansing” that they, indeed us all, need to be put through, to rid ourselves of the burden of shame of many generations. In this multi-layered battle for Delhi, it is for us to help Mayawati show the world that the time for it has come.

MAYAWATI'S MANNA: CONGRESS’S CONFUSION, TIKAIT’S TAUNT

Recent political developments in UP have been perplexing, to say the least. Alarmed by Mayawati’s rise and rise, her opponents, instead of developing coherent strategies to clip her growing wings, have played right into her hands. They have, with bizarre logic, given her an advantage that even she would have found difficult to create with her own efforts.

Let us take the Congress party first. Till early last year, it was an ally of the Samajwadi Party (SP) which was ruling the state. Then, a couple of months before the state elections, the party decided that the SP was leading a “goonda raj” and became its sworn enemy overnight. So much so that when the Congress lay in ruins after the elections despite the much hoped and hyped entry of Rahul Gandhi into state politics and electioneering, sycophantic ‘leaders’ of the party claimed victory on the most absurd and demeaning ground that they had succeeded in defeating the SP!

Then began the cozying up to Mayawati, who overnight became the party’s friend! To ensure her support for its nominee for the President, the Congress got its stooge governor to deny sanction to prosecute Mayawati in the famous Taj Corridor Case. The party then thought it had Mayawati in the bag as an able ally.

After facing defeat in other state elections, thanks in no small measure to Mayawati successfully poaching its Dalit vote bank, the Congress belatedly woke up to the grave threat that Mayawati was posing to the party. This was something which was brought out loudly in previous posts here, but then no one was listening. But after the electoral jolts, Mayawati rapidly turned from friend to spoiler to competition which had to be stopped at all costs.

Now, it is full circle again. The Congress is suddenly discovering new virtues in Mulayyam's SP and a lot of corruption in Mayawati’s government! Look at the irony. This time, it is turn of the suddenly-turned-friend-again SP to be benefited by the Congress’s decision to not accord sanction to prosecute SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav in corruption cases, including the one involving fraudulent enrolment of policemen!

Hang on. The joke is not over yet. After giving protection in separate corruption cases to both Mayawati and Mulayam Yadav in a span of less than one year, Sonia Gandhi is now talking of Rahul Gandhi’s willingness to go to jail as part of the party’s fight against the corruption in Mayawati’s government! I mean who are we fooling? Are ordinary Indians so dumb that they will fall for this charade or is there a really serious intellect deficit and people disconnect in the Congress?

We know how quickly people see through the sordid games of politicians. You have the most apparent answer staring in your face, but the Congress can’t see. Who will benefit from this confused flip-flop? Only Mayawati. Who will suffer, may be mortally? Only the Congress. The problem is: what choice does the emasculated Congress really have in UP? A drowning man is entitled to clutch at every straw to save himself. But after catching the first one which turned out to be made of lead, the Congress has found for itself the very piece of lead it had dumped earlier!

Just imagine. The Congress had both Mayawati and Mulayam uncomfortably cornered in corruption cases; a perfect opportunity to simultaneously get at both its principal opponents and expose and weaken them. But, it has let them both off the hook and is now talking of fighting corruption in the same breath!

The Congress seems to have completely forgotten that these are the two parties which have poached its traditional voters, the dalits and Muslims. They are never going to come back to the Congress if it sucks up to any one of these parties for temporary gain. A great opportunity to take them on has been missed again, so intense seems to be the focus on getting back enough MPs in the next election by whatever means.

Mahendra Singh Tikait is a Jat leader with some following in the Jat dominated villages of Western UP, translating into about 74 assembly constituencies. The rise and rise of Dalits led by Mayawati is decisively shifting the balance of power away from the “upper castes” and farmers who have for thousands of years meted out almost sub human treatment to Dalits. That change is not easy to swallow at all in the rural countryside; a point simply not seen in its enormity by the city bred who dominate the media and political hierarchies in most parties.

What has Tikait done? On March 30, 2008, he made derogatory caste remarks against dalits and Mayawati, to the loud cheer of his many Jat supporters. And when the police went to arrest him, it was prevented from doing so by his supporters, causing great social tension in the area. Worse, some people are actually supporting his statement and questioning the very logic of action against him for taunting certain communities by their traditional names, citing freedom of speech!

Battle lines appear to be getting drawn between the traditional centers of power dominated by non dalits and the dalits who are experiencing some real empowerment thanks to the banyan tree-like shelter and protection provided by Mayawati.

The Congress has recently launched its campaign of wooing dalits back into its fold by the stay-a-night strategy of making Rahul Gandhi stay a night in dalit homes across India. This is empowerment upper caste style, with dalits being dramatically told that they are no less than others by the highest ‘other’. In the backdrop of some dalit disenchantment with Mayawati’s performance as Chief Minister, this may have actually worked to the advantage of the Congress.

Tikait has unknowingly delivered a fatal blow to any hopes that the Congress may have had of getting more dalits to vote for it. He may have fired some base pride and caste superiority in Jats to ensure that they stay with him. But, ironically, he has also unintentionally driven home Mayawati’s message to the dalits that she alone can give real empowerment to them.

The unstated message of Tikait’s outburst is that upper caste politicians will only exploit dalits and will continue to humiliate them in some manner or the other from time to time to ensure that they effectively remain at the bottom of the heap. The straight message of the Congress party’s fresh friendship with Mayawati’s implacable enemy Mulayam is that to that party, dalits continue to mean nothing and that Rahul Gandhi’s latest efforts to win them back are no more than dishonest stunts to cheat them. The statement of the MOS Home, Jaiswal, that Tikait need not be arrested for his inflammatory comments has only served to reinforce it further, without any visible benefit to the Congress.

The many self goals being regularly scored by Mayawati’s opponents, confused and in serious disarray due her politically and socially disruptive meteoric rise, have given her enough manna to sustain her in her rapid ascent to the top. If she can keep her head and material needs in the right place, she may well get to South Block after the ensuing general elections. Thanks to the Congress and Tikait, 2009 could be the year of Mayawati.

This post was also published by reuters.com

MAYAWATI: SPOILER OR SAVIOUR?

Mayawati’s hug of death is finally beginning to choke the Congress party.

Before reading on, please carefully go through what I had written way back in August last year. In the post entitled "Mayawati’s Hug of Death”, I had then itself warned about the dangers that the Congress party was being exposed to in accepting Mayawati’s warm and reassuring sisterly hug after she had won the UP elections. Despite the many unconcealed signs to the effect given out over the years by Mayawati and her mentor Kanshi Ram, the Congress kept getting sucked into her death trap. The article needs to be read in its entirety; there is little need to repeat what I have already stated there with some lucidity.

It has taken a very long time for the Congress to realize that Mayawati is quietly removing the ground from beneath its feet. The lady is now being dubbed, again incorrectly, by the Congress a “spoiler” outside UP where she is causing the defeat of many Congress candidates by luring away dalit voters from the Congress. Her base in these states being small presently, her candidates do not win but eat enough into the vote bank of the Congress to ensure that its candidates are defeated due to this splitting of votes.

The embrace of Mayawati, who spares no opportunity to threaten the emasculated Congress party that she will withdraw support to the government at the Centre if it does not toe her line (the Congress has given in every time so far, any surprise?), is at last beginning to be seen as what it always has been. Possibly the overwhelming need for instant gratification of the lust for power had blinded the party till now.

Maywati is not in the political arena to make or mar the fortunes of other parties. She is in the game to get to power at the Centre on her own. She is not putting up candidates in states other than UP to ‘spoil’ the chances of the candidates of other political parties, primarily the Congress. That is happening as a bye product of her strategy to build an all India base, like she did in UP, to eventually get enough MPs to be the Prime Minister entirely on her own steam. Yes, in the interim she will spare no effort to get a critical number of MPs to ensure that no other party or alliance can form a government on its own. With the BJP and the Congress being at the opposite ends of an irreconcilable ideological spectrum, she will inevitably be in the unique position of choosing her political mates entirely on her own terms, doling out crumbs to salivating nobodies whose sole objective of being in this game of politics is to find the shortest route to the ill-gotten spoils that power showers in complete abundance.

There has been a lot of debate lately about the prospects of Mayawati outside of UP. Most analysts have comfortingly concluded that she has virtually no base or organization in place in many states; regional aspirations and dynamics will ensure that she cannot make any headway; her new fangled alliance with Brahmins in UP is going to fall apart; dalits will soon be disenchanted with her as they realize that upper castes have benefited more from her etc. Were not they similarly dismissive when Kanshi Ram started out with the then hopelessly impossible idea of empowering dalits politically on their own rather than as fringe players in other political parties?

Forget BSP. Remember how even seasoned politicians had written off BJP in the not too distant past as an urban party of banias limited to pockets of North India? See how the party reinvented itself and where it is now? From almost nowhere, it has emerged a one of the two leading national parties in the country, the other being the Congress, of course!

Mayawati is going to do a BJP on the national political scene sooner than most of us would like to even contemplate.

Mahatma Gandhi had dreamt of the day when a dalit would be the Prime Minister of India. That dream could not have been in the limited political sense of a dalit physically occupying that chair like Dr Manmohan Singh is doing now. Mahatma Gandhi would have visualized proper empowerment of dalits in all walks of life as well as the in the political hierarchy. He would have wanted transfer of real power to the dalits and other long downtrodden sections of our society, culminating in a dalit getting to the top job on his own, not due to condescending charity or circumstantial compulsions.

Without doubt, Mahatma Gandhi would have envisioned this shift in the power balance to be spearheaded by his own party, the Congress, from whose ranks a dalit would rise to be PM. He could have never dreamt that this grand old political party would one day mutate into a family property, making the rise of anyone else impossible.

In a larger sense, Mayawati is giving shape to the Mahatma’s dream. A Mayawati could simply not have risen in the Congress. Paradoxically, after stridently talking only about dalits, she is mutating into echoing the very soul of the Congress party that Gandhi had dreamt about. To some Congressmen, she may be appearing to be the ‘spoiler’ of the party; in reality she may be well on the way to becoming the saviour of the party, both in spirit and on ground.

I do not know whether Mayawati has given thought to this possibility: For perhaps the first time since Independence, she is in the unique position of being able to cause a split in the Congress party, to lead the breakaway portion on to becoming the real party with the remaining rump withering away faster than anyone can even imagine now. Alternatively, of course it sounds fanciful and will not happen I know, Mayawati can be made the Congress President and projected as its Prime Ministerial candidate for the next elections! In one stroke, dalits, for long the cannon fodder of the Congress, will get the empowerment that Mahatma Gandhi had dreamt for them within the Congress and the Congress will come back to power with a thumping majority in the next general elections.

It is for Congressmen to decide whether they want to treat Mayawati as a ‘spoiler’ or start acknowledging the fact that she can indeed be the saviour of the Congress party. The choice they make may well determine whether they and their party survive or dissolve into oblivion.

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Readers may also like to read:

1. Mayawati and Dalit Power
2. Single and on a mission: India's alpha (ge)Ms.
3. Mayawati's hug of death
4. Is Modi BJP's answer to the Manmohan Mayawati challenge?
5. Looking for India's Obama in Harvard!

SINGLE AND ON A MISSION: INDIA'S ALPHA (ge)Ms

He is from a Most Backward Caste, she from a Scheduled Caste. Both are driven by a mission defined by their vision of an India based primarily on religion and caste. Both are charismatic leaders who can inspire millions like no other leader in India today can. Both are non-English speaking. Both have ambitions which make many very uncomfortable indeed. Both are detested by comfortably cocooned armchair analysts and other luminaries whose arrogance and vacuous sense of superiority does not allow them to understand those who live in the India outside their English speaking world.

He leads a Spartan life and has a squeaky clean image as a Chief Minister who neither takes money nor allows others to do so. She, once a poor school teacher, now boasts of a ‘palace’ in Delhi and has declared assets of over Rs 50 crores. These, she says, were acquired through small ‘donations’ made by lakhs of party workers and members of her caste group, a sort of collective statement symbolizing a breaking free of the shackles of centuries of deprivation that untouchables have suffered in India.

He has not married; neither has she.

These two (ge)Ms, Mayawati and Modi, have burst upon the political landscape of India with a force and promise that has overturned the staid and almost predictable political paradigm dramatically. Their explosive rise has almost totally eclipsed all other pretenders to the throne of Delhi and quite emphatically demonstrated that the real Indian knows what and whom he wants in as well as out.

2007 was the year of these two (ge)Ms. It also was perhaps the most significant year in the political landscape of India since 1947.

For the first ever time, real Indians surprised our increasingly disconnected leaders and analysts by decisively voting to power these two ge(M)s in the two politically crucial states of Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat. The mandate was so unambiguous and unexpected that the usual hypocritical and superficial response which marks all political verdicts is once again likely to completely miss the unprecedented significance of what the people of India have said through the power of their vote.

In May 2007, Mayawati stunned the whole nation by storming to power on her own, breaking the splintered pattern of voting due to which no party had won an absolute majority on its own in the last six elections. Her victory signaled a tectonic shift in the thousands of years old balance of power in the caste based hierarchy of Hindu society.

How did her victory come about? Our founding fathers, in a sincere bid to undo the many injustices faced by low caste Hindus, had laid down 25 percent reservations in all government jobs to SC/STs for a period of 25 years, by which it was expected that their condition would improve and there would be no need to extend the reservations further. But, electoral mathematics ensured that politicians had no choice but to extend them. The extension it now seems is for an indefinite period.

Enter Prime Minister VP Singh who got that chair as a result of some petty machinations against Rajiv Gandhi in whose cabinet he was the Finance Minister. VP Singh was no mass leader and had virtually no chance of getting the post again. In a disastrous bid to ensure that he did become PM for another term, he dug out a long forgotten report by the Mandal commission and announced an additional reservation of 22.5 percent to Other Backward Classes(OBCs) identified by Mandal. He also declared a national holiday on the Prophet’s birthday.

VP Singh quickly discovered what the political class has yet to: once I get the benefit, particularly the one given for purely narrow and politically tactical reasons, why should I vote for you? At the same time I will ensure that you cannot undo what you have once done. If you try to put the genie back in the bottle, I will certainly vote against you, at the very least. Appeasement is an almost never ending and dangerous one way ticket with absolutely no long term returns. Maslowe’s Hierarchy of Needs applies everywhere.

Mayawati’s brilliant political strategy in 2007 involved touching the raw nerve of Brahmins and other upper castes that had been neglected and marginalized by politicians belonging to these very castes but looking for votes of lower castes only. When she, an untouchable, told them that they did not have to go begging to anyone to get their due anymore, they readily turned the ancient caste hierarchy upside down and voted to seek empowerment from her.

Mayawati embodies the rise of real Dalit power in India. In all other political parties, real power has always been in the hands of condescending leaders belonging to the upper castes. They have invariably displayed a patronizing attitude towards those who are lower in the caste order. Mayawati is the first Dalit leader who has managed to get real power on her own. Till Dalits rise to the position of the final authority in other political parties, there will be no really effective challenge to Mayawati, so long as votes are sought along the fault lines of caste, community etc.

In December 2007, Modi unleashed an energy which electrified the whole country and thrust him to an almost unrivalled leadership position in the BJP. Modi, under relentless pressure and the vilest possible criticism from all possible quarters, achieved the impossible in Gujarat. Never before had a serving Chief Minister had stormed back to power with such a resounding victory. That too in the face of such intense opposition from the media, NGOs and puppet politicians on what turned out to be a really remote remote-control.

In 2002, after a railway coach carrying Hindu pilgrims was burnt, allegedly by Muslim fundamentalists, killing all the 57 people who were inside, anti Muslim riots broke out in Gujarat. After those unfortunate riots, everyone went after Modi with a venom that any lesser mortal would not have been able to survive.

In the following five years, Modi single-mindedly devoted himself to the development of Gujarat, giving its people good, clean governance. Some argued, and will continue to, that he is anti-Muslim. They remained stuck in 2002 while Modi and the people of Gujarat as a whole moved on, showing once again how disconnected these Modi baiters and haters had become from the people of Gujarat. It was almost a repeat of what happened in UP when the same lot steadfastly ignored the Hindi speaking Dalit Mayawati and kept speaking and writing about the imaginary impact that Rahul Gandhi was making in that state.

The real significance of Modi’s victory was along one long ignored dimension. Muslims, constantly being incited by Modi’s political opponents on the basis of 2002, voted communally against Modi, possibly an emotional vote rooted one dimensionally in the past. But, for the first ever time after Nehru, Hindus did not vote along any caste or community based lines. They voted as citizens of Gujarat to acknowledge the terrific work that Modi had done for the state over five years. An overwhelming and positive vote to reward the good governance it clearly was. Mayawati, who fielded her candidates for the first time in Gujarat, was expected to take away a major chunk of the SC/ST vote, like she had done in other states. To everyone’s surprise, Modi swept all the constituencies where Dalits had a large vote share. They too preferred performance over caste.

Modi’s victory represents the victory of an India led by a firm, scrupulously honest, courageous, decisive, charismatic, macho and unapologetic leader who has a vision for the country as a whole. As Chief Minister, Modi has always spoken of and worked for all five crore Gujaratis, delivering results and progress to all irrespective of their religious or caste affiliations. Tomorrow he will similarly talk of and work for all 100 crore Indians, not 15 crore Muslims, 85 crore Hindus, Christians, Sikhs, Buddhists and Jains. He will not talk of castes and communities too. It is only a question of time before Muslims realize that, like all other Indians, they also stand to benefit the most from such a leader, and not from those who use them as nothing more than a vote bank.

Modi has demonstrated the possibility of winning elections on the desirable and positive basis of solid performance. That is the way it should always have been, and should be, in a real and healthy democracy. But, since most other leaders have monotonously failed to provide good governance, they have been resorting to the easier but divisive and often dangerous tactic of using the divisions of caste, community and religion to get to power.

Modi and Mayawati are both trail blazers. However,all the striking similarities between them notwithstanding, there is are two fundamental differences which set them apart.

Mayawati has brilliantly re-invented the proven strategy of exploiting caste arithmetic to get to power. This strategy may work and put her in the PM’s chair once. But, being essentially divisive and not focused on real performance, there is a strong possibility that it might trip her at some point of time, even before she reaches that chair in South Block. Mayawati has to learn to focus on clean governance. Whether she can do so or even wants to, is debatable, given what the general impression is. Her first objective of materially enabling herself has already been accomplished swiftly with some brazenness. Being single, she really does not need to stock up for seven generations. Her real mission, if she still has the zeal for it like her mentor Kanshi Ram did, will get seriously jeopardized unless she can provide clean, effective and inclusive governance.

Modi, on the other hand, has the advantage of being a scrupulously honest and able administrator, the likes of which this country desperately needs if it wants to sprint to join the big league. He is the one who actually can get Indians to vote for him as Indians. But, his opponents will continue to haunt him with the ghost of 2002, to ensure that Muslims do not go with him even if he proves that he is the community’s best developmental bet. However, considering the strength of character and personality that he has so far displayed to impact the whole nation, he should be able to dispel the misgivings of the Muslims who also want to move rapidly ahead as India progresses rapidly to take its rightful place among the great nations of the world.The only question is whether he will sincerely want to do that. If he does, we will have one really extraordinary leader.

Mayawati and Modi. These two names are going to dominate India’s politics for a long time. They have already exposed the rapidly diminishing appeal of the Gandhi brand and the virtual non-existence of the Congress party without it. They are also the only two charismatic mass leaders who, possibly because of their backgrounds rooted in real India, know the pulse of the people and have the ability to set it racing. In future, they are going to be the tallest competitors in the race for getting India’s top job. Given their soaring ambitions and hurry to get things done, their gladiatorial fights may well turn to be messy and nasty, to the accidental advantage of political dwarfs.

I know it is not going to happen. But should they ever decide to marry or even be ‘friends’, we will have India’s first alpha couple, much like the Clintons or even Brangelina! The only way Chhappan ki Chhati( 56 inch chest) Modi and the equally impressive Mayawati will get along is by taking dominating positions alternately, politically that is.

There is nothing to suggest that Modi will ever accept a ‘woman on top’ position. Mayawati, it is clear, will not have it any other way. If anyone of them ever manages to subdue the other, the result will be an unbeatable political combination. If not, the country will witness great political fireworks from their fights.

Either way, let us hope that these two single, alpha (ge)Ms on a mission give India the new political and governmental direction that its people have been deperately seeking since a number of years.

MAYAWATI'S HUG OF DEATH

Some years back, BSP ideologue and Supremo, the late Kanshi Ram had described the BJP and Congress parties as 'Saanp Nath'(King of Snakes) and 'Nag Nath'(King of Cobras). Both, he said, were equally dangerous and any opportune and momentary understanding with either of these parties would be entered into by the BSP only and only if it benefited the march and rise of the bahujan samaj (dalits) to power. His words never got past the ears that should have been listening and the minds that should have been trying to analyse his conceptual and strategic framework . He was lucky, as the political class at large has become almost completely focussed on winning the next election alone, and has lost the ability to see beyond. Perhaps this is due to the huge money involved in gaining political power, a subject of a separate discussion some other time.

A series of alliances with both the Congress and the BJP, including electoral and power sharing, followed, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, the home turf and laboratory of the BSP. Both the Congress and the BJP thought they had an unbeatable winning combination with the BSP, and that Mayawati, Kanshi Ram's heir, really had no choice but to align with either of them, and depend on them, if she wanted to get and keep power in any state. It probably never even crossed their mind that Mayawati's ambitions were far more encompassing, both for herself and the dalits, at the national level. Even more unrealistic to them, as well as to most experts and the media, seemed the possibility of Mayawati doing it virtually on her own from a dominant position, given the complex distribution pattern of dalits in various constituencies and states. Also, the dalits had many claimants to their votes, the Congress being historically the most prominent, and no one thought Mayawati could wean them away almost en block.

Both the Congress and the BJP have wooed Dalit voters in completely different ways. The BJP has used the hindutva plank to garner Hindu votes, while the Congress has, since independence, projected itself as the saviour and protector of the downtrodden. The BJP's emotive plank worked briefly on the Ram Mandir agenda which, obviously, could not could not continue to attract voters of lower castes indefinitely. The Congress, on a steady decline for the last 30 years, but for electoral successes in the wake of the assassinations of Mrs Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi, has increasingly lost touch with the masses, by banking solely on the Gandhi brand.

Crucially, both these major parties have also completely failed in throwing up credible dalit leaders, who can give a sense of real empowerment to the dalits. The BJP and the RSS, have traditionally been, and continue to be, dominated by the upper castes.Their brand of hindutva is mostly focussed on the Hindu-Muslim divide, and is nicely comfortable with the gross and cruel inequities in Hindu society and the continued exploitation and suppression of dalits. The Congress, on the other hand, has seen the systematic elimination of all leaders of stature who could mount even a remote challenge to the Gandhi family. The last dalit leader of any significance in the Congress was Jagjivan Ram, decades ago. Other than the Gandhis, the core of the Congress of the future is now nothing more than a bunch of young, westernised, English speaking, urbane 'leaders' whose main claim to leadership is in 10 Janpath rather than the hot and dusty 'jan paths' of real Indians who live out in the country.

Kanshi Ram realised that dalits constituted an extremely significant chunk of voters with the potential to grab power in a democratic setup, on their own. He was also quick to realise that all political parties were dominated by upper castes, and that centuries old prejudices, practices and mindsets would continue to ensure that dalits would always play second fiddle to them in these parties. The only, and extremely tough, option was to galvanise dalits as a new and separate political force. When the BSP won just two seats in the Lok Sabha, political 'pundits'(pun intended), were quick to dismiss the dalit challenge. They remained smug in their caste determined intellectual superiority and the belief that dalits could never rise uncomfortably and would continue to accept the 'condescending, patronising, laptop empowerment'(words of Sagarika Ghose) that Congress and other parties had on offer. Real power would remain securely beyond the reach of dalits.

Mayawati saw the opportunity which most analysts and the media thought was non existent. First she placed a healing, dalit hand on the dalits which gave them unprecedented confidence and assurance, almost as if an unbearable load of a thousand years had been taken off their aching backs. This phenomena just could not be comprehended by the elite who have never been touched by caste discrimination which their 'untouchable' countrymen face even today. Having got the dalits solidly behind her in UP, Mayawati dextrously made both the 'snake kings' dance to her music, which they did almost like zombies. They thought they were too smart for this crude and brash Hindi speaking dalit lady who had to be kept in good humour, to keep their own loyal dalit voters in the flock! Then, thanks to Mandal commission which enabled reservations for all but the upper castes, Mayawati touched the very raw Brahmin nerve, telling them that they no longer needed to go begging to anyone to get their due. To everyone's disbelief, Brahmins of UP hastily shed centuries of prejudice and accepted a dalit as their leader. And, Mayawati, to everyone's 'shock and awe', won the UP elections on her own.

Mayawati's hug of death has almost killed the BJP in UP. It has also ensured that the almost dead Congress is not even able to feebly raise its smashed head, despite the strongest available antigen of the Congress, Rahul Gandhi, being made available in full measure. She is set to repeat her strategy in other states too, though the operational details might be different, depending on local factors. After getting to power in UP, Mayawati seems to be becoming a trustworthy ally of the Congress. Her votes in the Presidential and Vice Presidential elections, lifting the ban on movement of Delhi buses into UP, turning the screws on Anil Ambani and Amitabh Bachchan etc, have won her the favour of 10 Janpath. Mayawati has embraced the Congress again, a warm, sisterly embrace.

The Congress is literally on the huge horns of a fateful dilemma. Mayawati's hug is of death again, howsoever warm and reassuring it may feel now. If the embrace is spurned, death is again inevitable, but it will be painful, as Mayawati will emerge the victorious victimised dalit. The BJP is unwanted for the moment by Mayawati but is no safer. Kanshi Ram had correctly identified the worst enemies of the dalits and had forged a formidable weapon in the shape of the BSP to counter them. Mayawati has finally found the right explosive mix needed to deliver a fatal blow.

Both the BJP and the Congress have to find a way quick to deal with this weapon of their mass destruction. Will they find it? The answers are certainly not going to be found by westernised, alien urbanites who are 'blind to religion', a la Rahul Gandhi. Nor will they be unearthed by tilak wearing hindutva protagonists, inherently disdainful and unaccepting of dalits rising even a notch above them in the social power matrix.

The stark fact is that the rise and rise of dalit power has to be accepted without flinching and with due dignity and respect. The power balance in the mainstream political parties has to move to the lower castes unambiguously. That can only happen if the final authority in the party is a dalit. Will it happen? Till it happens, one can be certain that there will be no really effective challenge to Mayawati, who is certain to become the Prime Minister of India much sooner than we think. And given her enormous intelligence and indomitable will , she just might prove to be the best thing that has happened to India since, yes, Mahatma Gandhi.
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Readers may also like to read:

1. Mayawati and Dalit Power
2. Single and on a mission: India's alpha (ge)Ms.
3. Mayawati: spoiler or saviour?
4. Is Modi BJP's answer to the Manmohan Mayawati challenge?
5. Looking for India's Obama in Harvard!

MAYAWATI AND DALIT POWER

This article was written by me in May and was first published in the Hindustan Times on May, 17 2007 under the title 'Mayawati and the emergence of Dalit Power.'
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Watching the coverage of the UP election results on various channels was illuminating in more ways than one.

The stark disconnect of various presenters and guests, particularly on NDTV, from the dynamics, as it were, of the elections and the real people who voted was painfully palpable. Our urban elite have been so completely alienated from people living in the rest of India, much like the patronising, condescending and smugly all-knowing Englishmen they are desperately trying to become, that most were not even able to comprehend that a very fundamental shift was taking place in the social dynamics that effect Indians. Almost like the British who simply could not fathom what Mahatma Gandhi was doing until it was too late! On NDTV, particularly, the debate anchored by Prannoy Roy and Barkha Dutt remained stuck in the street-smart rote of petty machinations and manipulations. With a few similarly myopic and dishonest politicians for support, they hopelessly tried to explain why their "intelligent" media representing the superior "English speaking universe" and their supposedly ultra sophisticated predictive models, totally failed not only to foresee what was coming but also to subsequently see what really happened.


The only thing Barkha Dutt saw, as she wrote glibly in the HT, was that the
voters were smart!


I recall the exit poll results after the first phase of polling on NDTV. The image that remained glued to my mind was that of Prannoy Roy hyper-excitedly telling viewers like a schoolboy that the "Rahul Gandhi" factor was working exceptionally well, almost in the fond hope that such proclamations would influence voters to vote for the Congress.This deception continued right till the very end even when all other exit polls were not half as gung-ho about Rahul's impact and the results started coming in. Psephology had obviously taken a backseat to the political agenda of the news channel. Even, when all was lost for the Congress, Roy and Dutt simply could not go beyond the usual brain-dead reasoning and the "analysis" of how the Congress was important to the BSP, particularly because of the Taj corridor case against Mayawati!


Not a word telling the viewers that Rahul Gandhi could get victory for his party in only six of the 108 or so constituencies he vigorously campaigned with virtually saturated media coverage. Such a huge investment of airtime and money wasted... they both seemed more devastated than the Congress for this loss and completely oblivious to the monumental significance of Mayawati's victory.

I must, in all fairness, bring out that the coverage on CNN-IBN was professional, unbiased and quite insightful. Sagarika Ghose, particularly, seemed to grasp the significance of Mayawati's magic and Rahul's rout, having spent some time on the ground during the elections with an obviously intelligent, open and receptive mind. She was dead right when she told Jayanti Natarajan that Dalits and others could no longer be won over by the patronising, condescending, laptop empowerment that the Congress was offering. Ghose saw, on the ground, the commitment and missionary zeal of BSP workers and what Mayawati's victory meant to them. Before the elections, she even could see BSP getting around 180 seats. Roy, on the other hand, during his brief sojourn to the hot, dusty plains of western UP close to Delhi, not only appeared as if he had been roasted in an oven, but could see nothing except Rahul's big impact and some incendiary speeches made by BJP leaders, as if that would help the Congress.


The UP election signals a tectonic shift in the power matrix of Hindu society. And who has Mayawati to thank, among others for seeing and grabbing the opportunity? Mr Mandal, of course, milked to death by completely opportunistic and dishonest politicians thinking they can fool the masses, simply to grab power in the next election. VP Singh brought Mandal out, not with any visionary belief or empathy for the downtrodden, but simply to create a vote bank for himself. For the same reason, on August 15, while addressing the nation, he declared the Prophet's birthday a national holiday (it is not a holiday even in Pakistan!). Once the Mandal genie was out of the bag, it simply could not be put back as doing that would have cost any political party unacceptably. Such measures cannot win you votes, as VP discovered, but the political class has yet to. Once I am a declared an OBC, why should I vote for you, that is if I can even pinpoint you as the benefactor? The voter is not fooled. He knows why you have done it and moves on to whom he wants. Someone should have read about Maslowe's Hierarchy of Needs to understand that there would be virtually no political returns to either of these measures.


And, it has taken a Hindi speaking "uncultured" Dalit lady to understand the hidden, but obvious now, ramifications of Mandal so that she can reap its benefits enduringly. Unlike the SCs, who have for thousands of years been deprived of both social and economic empowerment and, therefore, justifiably need support to help them elevate themselves on both dimensions, but critically the social dimension first, the OBCs are disparate grouping, most of whom do not face social discrimination that the Dalits have endured.


Even Mahatma Gandhi could not discover OBCs as they have now been for petty and ulterior political gain. I recall when riots broke out after VP Singh announced Mandal, Jats protested most vocally for the first couple of days. However, when the news filtered down that Jats were among the OBCs and not upper castes in the Mandal report, they were smart enough to quietly accept the benefits. And, of course you know who they voted for! I understand there were similar scenes of some other communities too. What this has lead to over time is the feeling among the economically disadvantaged Brahmins and other upper castes that they have no one to take care of their interests and that they have to struggle for advancement with their hands tied behind their backs, while the socially similar, or even better placed OBCs are being courted by everyone.

So when Mayawati, a Dalit, untouchables still in parts of India, asks Brahmins to vote for her and tells them with conviction that they do not have to go begging to anyone to get their due, it touches their raw nerve, and they willingly turn thousands of years of rigid social hierarchy upside down to seek empowerment and justice from a shudra. Mayawati has envisioned and achieved something which no politician thought she could. Of course some urbane armchair "experts" who actually belong to the Page 3 but imagine that they are intelligent and erudite, cannot simply comprehend what an epoch-making change is unfolding, having never experienced caste barriers in their beautiful world.They need to revisit Mahatma Gandhi to even begin to understand India, much less talk absurd profundities about it on national media. Gandhi may be tough in these times. Mark Tully, a Brit, will be enough to shame them.

I hope Mayawati understands the importance of what she has initiated. With the exceptional intelligence and abilities that she has displayed so far, there appears to be little doubt that she does. If that is correct, Mayawati can bring about the social revolution that both Mahatma Gandhi and Dr BR Ambedkar dreamt of but could not achieve in their lifetime. In the pursuit of her objective, she will be well advised to continue to ignore the media, or at least the "intelligent" media, like she has done so far.
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Readers may also like to read:

1. Mayawati's hug of death
2. Single and on a mission: India's alpha (ge)Ms.
3. Mayawati: spoiler or saviour?
4. Is Modi BJP's answer to the Manmohan Mayawati challenge?
5. Looking for India's Obama in Harvard!