Showing posts with label NDTV 24/7. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NDTV 24/7. Show all posts

Saturday, July 23, 2011

SA'FAI' BEGINS, PURGE NEEDED

The whitewash, sa’fai’, of the damning Faigate revelations that have sinister implications for India, both internally and in its responses to Pakistan, has begun. And, as expected, the usual suspects are at it.

Prannoy Roy and Barkha Dutt’s NDTV, chastened by "guilt-tweets" of Ms. Dutt before and after the Radia tapes rash hit and claimed her, continuing histrionics notwithstanding, has chosen to remain silent lest it is unable to pull its smelly foot out of its mouth subsequently. Their burden has been taken on by two old friends of the channel, the publicly exposed Vir Sanghvi and the yet to be Shekhar Gupta.

Vir Sanghvi, now reduced to writing on the net, the very medium he derided at the peak of his wholly "paid" arrogance, has written another Radia piece “ dressed up” to look as a pat in the back for India, but meant to exonerate his many corrupt liberal friends who have been found to be anti-national as well. If you read the whole piece, you will find that Sanghvi has been unsparing in exposing the well-known game plan of Pakistan – which, let us be clear, means the ISI, which in turn means Pakistan’s Army Chief – for Kashmir which, as he brings out, India has been been warning the world about.

Yet, Mr. Sanghvi wants us to believe that the real issue about Faigate is that Ghulam Nabi Fai's organisation, the Kashmir American Council, was “created by the Pakistani state to con Americans!” You don’t expect men of Vir Sanghvi’s integrity to tell us why the ISI wanted to con the Americans over Kashmir. Because if he does that then he knows he cannot conjure the lame and disgraceful defence that he offers, in just a couple of lines, for Indian liberals and peaceniks, among them Justice Sachar, author of the infamous Sachar Commision report, who were regulars at Fai’s Kashmir conferences that were micro-managed by the sinister ISI. They, he claims, were unaware of Fai’s sources of funding and whitewashes their culpability by saying: “it is sad and unfortunate that they were duped into lending legitimacy to an ISI-sponsored initiative.”

The Editor of Indian Express, Shekhar Gupta, has, for once, beaten Vir Sanghvi and conjured an even more absurd defence of the indefensible, but one that some of those caught will try to employ to escape the accusation of committing plain treason.

Gupta rubbishes Sanghvi's line that those who enjoyed Fai’s hospitality were unaware that he was a Pak/ISI agent. This is what he says of Fai: “But all of it, the injured air of Kashmiri victimhood, and Americanised English would not fool you about who he exactly was, and what precisely he was after. He was a Pakistani lobbyist for “their” Kashmir cause, leading a very cleverly constructed over ground support base for the malevolent movement that was picking strength in the early nineties. You would have to be utterly nuts, delusional or smoking some awful prohibited substance to not figure this out. Would you have known he was funded by the ISI? Again, you had to be from another planet to believe anything else.”

As every donkey and his son knows, Pakistan’s Kashmir policy is driven wholly by the military and its outstanding covert operations outfit, the ISI, that has been fermenting trouble in the Valley and other parts of India for a long, long time. That is the reason why Gupta has abandoned the unaware line. But, he also knows that sleeping with the ISI is an unforgivable act of treason, soaked in blood. So, he bails out the likes of Justice Sachar and many others yet to be exposed by inventing a high moral ground where none can be: “A more honest — and morally totally convincing — answer would have been the straight one. That as an intellectual or, in case of some, as a civil society activist, you were fully within your rights to go and speak at any forum, even if it was funded or organised by the Pakistanis and that just the fact of accepting a free ticket and a tiny per diem would not have compromised your integrity.”

As I understand this bizarre argument, it is perfectly fine for well-known Indians who are representing India to lend respectability and credence to, and bolster the ant-India position of the ISI on Kashmir across the world, knowing fully well that it is one over which three wars have been fought and over which a proxy war is still on. So, by the same logic, Indians should also be at liberty to go to Kashmir and physically fight ISI’s war against India, or do the same in other parts of India by carrying out a terror attacks and killing innocent people.

A war is fought more in the minds than on the battlefield. How can any sane man argue that while Indian foot soldiers of the ISI (a wing of Pakistan's military) are guilty and should be hanged, those who are knowingly furthering its hostile-to-India cause and its war across the globe are not only innocent but have a right to do so?

But Gupta has the the nerve to say that it is entirely irrelevant as to “who accepted Fai’s free tickets and hospitality, knowingly or unknowingly.” Perhaps Gupta no longer needs such petty perks. But, the same gentleman, knowing what he does about the military’s vice-like grip over Pakistan's India policy, was among the first to articulate, and repeatedly, after 26/11 that India should actually strengthen Pakistan and give to it concessions over Kashmir and other issues to “enhance the power and credibility” of Pakistan’s government, one that even prints fake Indian currency in its mints. Then I had imagined that he was writing the nonsense he was because someone in the corridors of power that he lives in had asked him to. Now the picture is getting frightening.

For India, what Faigate means to the Americans is, at one level, peripheral. It is undoubtedly a cog in the big picture, but for us the immediate and extremely worrying concern is that it is the tip of a very large ISI iceberg that is attacking India at all levels in pursuance of the Pakistan military’s single-point objective of bleeding India to death through a thousand cuts.

What the likes of Shekhar Gupta and Vir Sanghvi will not speak of are the scary logical deductions that must come first to the minds of all analysts as a result of Fai exposure as an ISI agent. The simple fact is the Fai was used by the ISI to defeat India internationally in so far as its position on Kashmir is concerned. And it spent millions of dollars over the counter and -- there can be little doubt -- many more below it, to get Indians to help it win this small but integral part of its existential war against India. The real war is being fought and will be fought on ground in India, including Kashmir. Does it take rocket science to understand that ISI must have been spending a thousand times more here, at every possible level, starting from sleeper cells to the media, academia, think tanks, babudom, and India’s political leadership, right up to and including 10 Janpath?

Rahul Gandhi’s assessment, shared with an American, – no electoral politics there – that Hindu terror posed a bigger threat to India than Pak-sponsored terror, is irrefutable proof that – notwithstanding his limited intelligence and grasp – even the future Prime Minister of India (as some believe) is being deliberately misguided by his trusted advisers. This cannot be a coincidence. The ISI has penetrated even his innermost circle.

While one can accept that the daily front paging of Hindu terror is essentially driven by the compulsions of vote-bank politics, it cannot be an accident that the whole mainstream mind-space has become irrationally pro-Pakistan during the last few years.

Sonia Gandhi has appointed the lawyer who defended ISI’s front organisation SIMI, the mother of the Indian Mujahideen who have carried out many terror attacks, as India’s Law Minister. She has also filled the NAC with hate-filled activists of very dubious antecedents and got a former bureaucrat who has given SIMI a de facto clean chit to draft the pernicious Communal Violence Bill that emasculates Hindus and puts the reins of determining culpability of individuals and all state organs, including the military, in the hands of unelected representatives from minority communities, in so far as Hindu-Muslim tensions (let's cut pretences) are concerned.

Seen in isolation, as indeed, liberals and ISI agents want us to, the many steps being taken by Sonia’s government and NAC seem innocuous, even harmless. But when viewed holistically, one cannot miss the fact that there is a method behind it all. Liberals and peaceniks and Hindu-haters are all pushing the “Break-India” agenda of the ISI.

The labyrinth of terror of which Fai was a part runs deep in India and many of these guys who have virtually been dictating India’s policies along all dimensions with regard to Pakistan and, by extension, Indian Muslims, who the ISI has been trying to turn into its assets, are central players in it, many willing, aware. That is why the hushed silence. That is why these fraudulent defences.

“ISI has more freedom of opinion than us.” This tweet unknowingly sums up the picture that India’s traitors have helped paint. They are many, they are powerful, they are dangerous, they have vested interests. And they have already begun the Big Cover Up. They may have much at stake, but India has much more. So, they have to be taken on by the state, by each one of us. The sa’fai’ under way must be exposed, and pressure put on the government to uncover and remove all termites who have gnawed deep into India, right to the doors of Sonia Gandhi who seems to have got caught in a trap of her own making.

The purge has to be ruthless and untouched by any political or personal considerations. This is the real lesson of Faigate.
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Monday, July 6, 2009

HOMOSEXUALITY: DECRIMINALISATION VS PROMOTION

On July 02, 2009, the Delhi High Court ruled that private homosexual sex between consenting adults could not be treated as a criminal act under Section 377 of the IPC. Ever since then, there has been a lot of debate in the media about whether gays should be treated just as heterosexuals are and whether India is ready to accept same sex couples.

Predictably, Muslim and Christian leaders have taken the view that being gay is unnatural and does not have the approval of God. Sikh clerics have also spoken out against it. Hindus do not have any central authority that can give a clear ruling applicable to all sects and sub-sects, but Baba Ram Dev has said that homosexuals are ill and should do pranayam to rid themselves of this "abnormality". (Update July 08: He is filing a petition in the Supreme Court challenging the judgment of the High Court today). There are others who say that homosexuality is not frowned upon by Hinduism. The dominant view, however, is that while sexual relations between females were there even during the times of the Epics, male homosexuality was unknown in India till the arrival of Muslim invaders.

Little wonder then that this exclusively human sexual orientation that has always been almost universally condemned by religions as unnatural and frowned upon by society as abnormal, was legally classified as a criminal activity in India by the British 149 years back. Societies across the world, particularly in the West, have dramatically changed in the last century and a half. The hold of the Church has also eroded dramatically during this period, thanks to an almost rebellious attitude that makes people want do everything that is prohibited, the impulse being that it must be damn good and, therefore, must be indulged in.

The decriminalisation of homosexuality in India has come as a huge relief to ordinary gays, particularly male, who have been living for long not only with social disapproval but also fear of law.

In a very interesting and illuminating discussion on CNN-IBN on July 5, 2009, it was refreshing to see Sagarika Ghose getting Muslim Personal Law Board Member Kamal Farooqi and Dominic Emmanuel, spokesperson of the Delhi Catholic Archdiocese, around to toning down their opposition to the High Court judgment by accepting that although their religions did not allow homosexuality, gays should not be treated as criminals for what they do in the privacy of their homes. Madhu Kishwar, in fact, went to the extent of saying that the judges had done our judiciary proud "because they have shown that Indian constitution allows endless expansion of notion of freedom".

The other important aspects that Ghose got the panel involved in discussing included the elitist nature of homosexuality in India, the fear that this is "a slippery slope down to moral chaos" and the fact that public display of gay pride is offensive to conventional moral values of Indian families. The consensus was that homosexuality should be in tune with India's morals and should not flaunt itself or be exhibitionist.

The same issue was addressed in NDTV's "We the People" program on July 5, 2009. At the end of it, Dominic Emmanuel could not stop himself from saying that straight Indians watching the program would start thinking that they were the ones who were queer! In that one sentence, he laid bare the concealed truth that the program was not about objectively discussing homosexuality but about aggressively promoting it as a hip and superior Western lifestyle statement that modern young Indians should embrace.

This was in stark contrast to the balanced manner in which the issue was discussed in the program on CNN-IBN. What got Emmanuel energised to say what he did was perhaps the statement of a carefully chosen lady participant who very proudly informed India that she was a mother who had had a number of same sex relationships and that her daughter too was doing the same. That was not only flaunting homosexuality, it was striking at the very roots of widely accepted family values: it was irresponsibly pushing a deviant style statement into the bedrooms of conventionally married couples.

That is why perhaps there is much apprehensions in many quarters that their children who are otherwise straight will be almost compelled to experiment with homosexuality due to the subtle pressure that is already beginning to be put on them. It is generally accepted that homosexuality is the result of hormonal imbalance. Over that physical condition people have little choice, and such people need to be respected and accepted for what they are.

But, when some individuals start pushing, directly or indirectly, their imbalances into people who are balanced, as a smart thing that should be done by them too, then it is equally an intrusion into the personal lives of the vast majority of Indians who are not hormonally inclined to be gay.

This is the one unwelcome fallout of the judgment that we will be forced to deal and live with as a society. Perhaps a law to prevent promotion of homosexuality is also needed to balance the much needed relief given by Delhi High Court by decriminalising it.

Saturday, May 9, 2009

POLL PREDICTION AFTER PHASE 4: TREND IS NDA'S FRIEND

The trend is evidently NDA's friend. That is about the only thing that can be surmised after completion of polling for Phase 4. This was the 85 seat phase which was supposed to be the big one for the UPA, the one in which it was expected to make substantial gains in Rajasthan and Punjab and elsewhere while holding on to its tally in Delhi and Haryana. Did that happen? Is the Congress hitting the 171 mark that NDTV had predicted it would as soon as polling was completed for the third phase? Or is the BJP doing much better that most pollsters and analysts had been leading the nation to believe for the last two months or so?

Consider the following "unscientific" straws in the wind:
  • After the first phase, Laloo Prasad Yadav, the ever effervescent and arrogant leader, complained in a defeated voice that there was rigging in Madhepura. In phase 4, he not only lost his cool at a press photographer in a polling booth but refused to speak to media at all. For a man who can easily bluff his way with bluster through any difficult situation to behave in this unprecedented manner shows, at least to me, that not only is he likely to be routed personally in both the seats he is contesting but is going to see his party face its most disastrous defeat in Bihar. With the Congress non-existent there, there is only one logical conclusion: it just might be a near clean sweep for the NDA there.
  • Rahul Gandhi's famous press conference where he naively, to say the least, asked for the help of almost all parties except the BJP, including those who are fighting against the UPA, even before polling took place for phase 4, showed that the Congress knew deep down even then that it was going to fare worse than it did in 2004. In addition, it also shows that it knew that its "allies" like the RJD, LJP, DMK etc were going to be virtually mauled.
  • The decision of the government to revoke the Red Corner notice against Quattrochi of Bofors fame showed that there was real fear that the UPA might not come back to power: the ghost of Bofors had to be buried so that the next government could not use it to haunt the Gandhis.
  • The intense Congress and media effort to win over Nitish Kumar to the UPA is abnormal, to put it mildly, and shows that the Congress is faring very badly overall. If the Congress is actually likely to get 26 seats more than last time, as the nation was being told till a few days back, with a lead of 40 plus seats over the BJP, then the game is already over for the BJP; parties will run to the Congress and the latter will also successfully split a couple of them, like it always has, to ensure that the UPA crosses the half-way mark.
  • The sacking by the Congress of two of its spokespersons, Verappa Moily and Ashwini Kumar following Rahul Gandhi's press conference shows the extent of panic that has gripped the party. Moily has been shown the door for speaking against Nitish Kumar who seems now to be the last hope of the party, while Ashwini Kumar has bought it for saying that the Congress was stronger than the TDP and did not need an alliance with it.
  • The announcement by Mulayam Yadav that he will support any party at the centre that dismisses Mayawati's government, coupled with the open infighting in the party between Amar Singh and Azam Khan and the Kalyan Singh factor, shows that he has already realised that the great alliance that he was forging with Laloo Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan is a non-starter and that his party will do badly in UP. That is why he has already reduced his demands and is ready to sleep with any one if that can save him from sinking into the kind of oblivion that Laloo Yadav is going to face.
  • The revoking of the NSA against Varun Gandhi by Mayawati, albeit through the Advisory Board, suggests that Mayawati has also had a reality check: she is not going to emerge with 40 plus seats in UP as some pollsters were projecting. In fact her tally might be so much more humbling that she will need a supportive government at the Centre to look the other way about corruption charges against her, and also not dismiss it on one pretext on another. And she see most of the losses that Mulayam Yadav will suffer, and more, going to the BJP. It could also very well mean that she believes that the NDA is going to be strong enough to be not critically dependent on her for support.
  • As I had written earlier, the real IPL T20 tournament is being played in UP; any party that gets around 20 seats more than it had got last time here will probably get to power in Delhi. The Congress is too weak to translate the additional Muslim votes that it has been dying to get into seats. If both Mulayam and Mayawati feel that they are vulnerable, then who is the one emerging stronger? The only question now is: by how many seats?
  • The decision of the TRS today to attend the NDA rally in Ludhiana tomorrow is as clear an indication as any that the Congress is in serious trouble in Andhra Pradesh and, thereby, behind the BJP in the race to emerge as the single largest party
  • After phase 4, in a major departure from it earlier practice, NDTV made no projection at all, either for the states that went to the polls in this phase or overall to confirm or modify its earlier projection. I am no expert face reader, but one had to be blind to miss that there was absolutely no excitement in Prannoy Roy's voice or a smile on his face, the kind that the very mention of Rahul Gandhi brings out magically.
  • A significant gem that Prannoy Roy let out was that a one percent swing translates into a gain or loss of 20 seats. A swing of such a small magnitude is impossible to predict. That is probably was why after phase 4, NDTV suddenly could not put its finger on extent and direction of the swing for the Congress. If so, how did it spot a 1.3% swing earlier with the Congress hitting the 171 mark, a gain of 26 seats?
  • CNN-IBN expert Yogendra Yadav also similarly refused to make any projection on the ground that it was impossible to predict a small five to seven seat gap between the two parties.
  • MJ Akbar is one of the the few journalists who has been saying for some time that successive polls opinion polls have shown that there is a trend that is in favour of the NDA. After phase 4, he went to the extent of saying on Headlines Today that the NDA would not just be marginally ahead of the UPA by a few seats; the gap would be bigger.
  • After phase 4, the coverage of the elections in the newspapers as well as on television has undergone a change. No one, repeat no one, is making the claim that the Congress is going to be ahead of the BJP by 40 seats. In fact, the voices talking of even a lead have all but vanished. After the initial flurry where TV anchors and guests tried their utmost to cobble up allies for the Congress to enable it to form a government, the coverage has lost the fizz that it had earlier completely. The sense that I get is that a lot of disappointed people are reorganising themselves to better face the bitter truth that can scarcely be hidden any longer.
On February 16, 2009, one of the first polls on the elections was telecast on CNN-IBN. At the end of the program it was clear that nothing was clear. "The mood of the nation is something of a mystery. No body knows what people are thinking at the moment. No body knows how they are going to vote." This is how Vinod Mehta had summed up the results thrown up in the survey after making valiant efforts to beat the Congress drum during the debate.

There was, however, one statistic which did not appear significant then but looks so now. In 2004, 48% of those who took part in a similar poll wanted to give the NDA government another chance. In the survey of 2009, 45% wanted the UPA to continue. This means that in January this year, there was a 3% swing away from the UPA compared to the NDA. In 2004, the NDA lost with a 48% backing. According to Prannoy Roy, a 1% swing in voting translates into 20 seats. If that is right then this swing is not as insignificant as it looks. More significantly, this figure was before the Satyam scandal in Andhra Pradesh, the Varun Gandhi episode, the Quattrochi pardon, the BJP manifesto wooing the military including veterans, the utter confusion about the UPA's Prime Ministerial candidate and the sordid drama of Laloo Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan that marked the disintegration of the UPA.

Nobody who has commonsense will believe that even today, 45% of Indians want to give the UPA another chance. The percentage has dropped but no one knows by how much. If the past is any indicator, the magnitude of such trends is rarely caught accurately by anyone in advance. It is, however, evident that there has been a serious decline in the popularity of the UPA in the last few months. To see that change, no longer hideable after phase 4, one has to just pick up a few English language papers to see their headlines and watch a couple of English TV channels to see the expressions on the faces of their leading lights.

The trend suggests that the NDA is now in a much better position than the UPA to come to power. Will it be able to win enough seats that will enable to form a stable and viable government? Or will it be a narrow victory that will lead to the formation of another unstable, paralysed government? There are as many estimates as there estimators. So many surveys and polls and reports later, no one still knows what the strength and extent of the trend is. Looks like we will have to wait for another seven days to find out exactly how badly the people of the country want a change, if at all.
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3. Opinions, not opinion polls
4. The real IPL T20 is on in UP - 2
5. NDTV makes a mockery of exit polls
6. Celebrities and the elections

Friday, May 1, 2009

NDTV: AFTER PHASE 3, CONGRESS UP TO 171!

NDTV has now turned to bookies to help it make projections of the poll results. After completion of phase 3 of polling on April 30, 2009, the channel has given the Congress as many as 171 seats, up six from the figure it had projected after phase 2, while the BJP is shown languishing as many as 43 seats behind it with a tally of 128. And how has NDTV arrived at all these figures? By getting inputs from bookies, NDTV correspondents, "our analysis and the sixth sense of Dorab Sopariwala", says Prannoy Roy.

NDTV is giving the Congress even more seats than the 160 odd that the party itself feels it will get and a whopping 26 seats more than it had got in 2004. Of the states that voted in the third phase, contrary to most reports, NDTV sees the Congress making big gains in Madhya Pradesh with 13 seats, up nine. In Maharashtra too, the Congress-NCP alliance is seen doing remarkably well with 31 seats, of which the share of the Congress is 16, up three.

If all that the team at NDTV is saying is actually true it means that the Congress is heading for a handsome victory, virtually on its own steam. Had this "wave" of popularity been evident on ground, by now there would have been endless chat shows and debates on the channel and editorials in the Hindustan Times about how the nation is voting for youth and how Rahul Gandhi deserves all the credit for this upswing in the fortunes if the Congress, negating not only anti-incumbency that should have cost the Congress around 30-40 seats but actually winning 26 more. So, since he alone is responsible for effectively getting around 60 "additional" seats, he should be made PM!

Who will take the responsibility if the reverse happens when the results come out?

Watch the video. You will not fail to notice that neither Prannoy Roy nor any of the other panelists even whisper about this sharp upswing in the number of seats that the Congress is shown to be getting. Odd isn't it?



UPDATE MAY 7: AFTER PHASE 4, THE FIZZ HAS GONE

Polling for 85 seats that went to the polls in Phase 4 was completed today. Logically, NDTV should have been in a position to even more accurately pinpoint the exact number of seats that the Congress was going to get. Particularly since this was the phase in which the Congress was expected to make big gains. Although NDTV had shown the Congress sprinting ahead after phase 3 with 171 votes, others were a lot more circumspect and were, in fact of the view that it was the BJP that had gained ground in the first three phases and that it was crucial for the Congress to catch up in the fourth phase, particularly in Rajasthan. NDTV had already given it 16 seats, up 12, earlier and it was expected that based on ground reports, the channel would confirm today whether their assessment was right.

But, today, NDTV simply did not venture to make any prediction whatsoever about any of the states that went to the polls in Phase 4! But the consensus that seems to have emerged suddenly from nowhere across channels is that the BJP could well emerge as the single largest party and the NDA the largest poll alliance. MJ Akbar, in fact, went to the extent of saying on Headlines Today that there might be a substantial gap between the UPA and the NDA. Yogendra Yadav of CNN-IBN said it was too close to call while Arnab Goswami of Times Now spoke about the BJP getting around 150-160 seats.

Needless to add, there were some very unhappy faces in TV studios today. The Congress fizz that they had somehow generated and sustained for months, has just gone. Something stinks.


NDTV sees Congress steaming ahead after phase 2
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Readers may also read:
1. The real IPL T20 is on in UP!
2. Opinions, not opinion polls
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4. NDTV makes a mockery of exit polls
5. Celebrities and the elections

Saturday, April 25, 2009

NDTV SEES CONGRESS STEAMING AHEAD AFTER PHASE 2

Voting for 265 seats to the Lok Sabha has been completed and everyone is trying to gauge the pulse of the people at this half-way mark. Most analysts are not sticking their necks out to predict as to which party/alliance is ahead. The general view is that it is too close to call, the UPA seems to have lost ground in the last couple of months and something unusual is brewing in Uttar Pradesh.

But if NDTV is to be believed, the Congress is actually steaming ahead to a remarkable victory. As against 145 seats that it won in 2004, Prannoy Roy and Dorab Sopariwala believe that the party is going to get as many as 20 seats more this time to hit 165. The BJP, on the other hand, is seen by them as slipping from 138 to 125 seats. Thus, the Congress, which beat the the BJP by seven seats in 2004 to emerge as the largest party, is charging ahead of it by as many as 40 seats after five years in power. If this is really what is happening on the ground, this election is already over and the Congress is without an iota of doubt set to head the next government in Delhi.

Now let us examine broadly how NDTV has conjured these figures.


Take Andhra Pradesh first. NDTV sees the Congress doing so well there that it will get 27 seats there as against 29 that it got last time when there was an anti-TDP wave and when it had the TRS and the Left as allies. Despite loosing all of them and having only the one-seat MIM in its fold this time, the Congress is down by only two seats. This, despite Chiranjeevi's PRP getting around 24% vote share in Telengana and about 13% in the rest of the state, as you can see Roy saying himself in this video. He also believes that the PRP has eaten only into the TDP's vote share, leaving the Congress almost completely unscathed. NDTV's opinion poll had earlier shown the Congress getting between 21-23 seats, plus one for the MIM. Now, it seems as if a wave has emerged suddenly in favour of the party. The Satyam scandal in which CM YSR Reddy is widely perceived to be fully involved has surprisingly made him more popular in the last few days.

In the other key state of Tamil Nadu where the DMK led UPA has been deserted by all allies, except the Congress, the UPA is seen as doing very well still with as many as 21 out of the 39 seats that the state has, with the DMK getting 15 and the Congress six, a loss of only four for the latter compared to the last time when the alliance had made an unprecedented clean sweep, bagging all 39 seats! The grand alliance forged by Jayalalitha is not working, if NDTV is to be believed.

In Maharashtra too, the Congress is doing extremely well. The unending bickering with Sharad Pawar is paradoxically working in its favour, taking its tally up from 13 in 2004 to 15 now. Similarly, in Rajasthan, the Congress is seen jumping from four to 16 seats while the BJP comes down sharply from 21 to 8. Gujjar leader Bainsla's joining the BJP and the decision of ex-servicemen to support the BJP in this state which has a significant population of both gujjars and military men is somehow working in favour of the Congress. In Orissa, the Congress jumps to the top spot with 10 seats, up eight, beating even Naveen Patnaik's BJD. Similar gems can be found in some other states too.

The strangest figures of all are for UP. Here, the Congress is losing just one seat against the nine that it got in 2004. But the BJP is mysteriously doing worse despite an alliance with the RLD. Last time it won 10 seats on its own. Now, it is getting only seven, despite that tie-up which all others see as helping it in Western UP, with the RLD getting three.

According to a number of analysts, there is clearly a real change in the air in UP which can turn in surprising results. The upper castes and non-dalits who had deserted the BJP to go with Mayawati in the assembly elections are apparently not with her this time. Then there is intense polarisation of votes in a number of constituencies due to the decision of the Ulema Council to field its own Muslim candidates in seven constituencies and Varun Gandhi's controversial speech. If anything, this should see an increase in BJP's tally, not a decrease, as NDTV is projecting. No one knows what the increase will be. If it is 20 or thereabout, the BJP will undoubtedly emerge as the single largest party at the national level.

A word here about West Bengal. Here, the Congress has committed what might turn out to be the biggest blunder of this election, if not all time. And not a single analyst has yet spoken about it. By aligning with Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress(TMC) against the Left, the Congress has potentially gifted a 20 seat advantage to the NDA. How important this will prove in sealing the fate of the Congress will depend on how many seats it can get on its own. If it has to depend on the support of the Left to form the government, as looks certain, the TMC will walk over to the opposite camp.

Last time the Congress had got six seats alone. This time it is not seen getting even one more. The TMC is the only one gaining from this alliance and that too by 10 seats or more. And it will get all of them from the Left. So, if the Congress has no choice but to go with the Left, the UPA's total tally will get reduced by at least 10 while the NDA will get an equivalent 10 seat bonus for free. A more dumb and potentially suicidal alliance has perhaps never been entered into by any party till now. It would have made sense only if the Congress was dead sure of doing so much better than last time that it could form a government without the Left. What were the Congress brains thinking when they went to Mamata?

With three phases of polling still to go, NDTV has declared Congress the winner, and doing much better than it did during the last elections. But, as will be evident from the above analysis, there is going to be substantial revisions in these manifestly cooked-up figures by the time voting for all seats is over.

Something similar had happened in the Gujarat Assembly elections, that too in the exit polls. After the first phase of polling for 86 seats, NDTV actually showed the Congress ahead of the BJP 43-40. But after the second phase was completed and it was no longer possible to hide the bitter truth, the Congress was shown getting between 27 and 52 seats in that phase, an unbelievable variation of 25 seats, with the total coming to between 72 and 95. How much did the Congress actually get? Just 59 seats.In the UP assembly elections too, NDTV had seen a sort of "wave" being generated by Rahul Gandhi, due to which the nation was told that the vote share of the Congress was going up and the party was certain to win between 35 and 45 seats. It won 22 and suffered a drop in vote percentage. Does all this tell you something about what to expect in these elections where NDTV has given 165 seats to the Congress?

This time also it seems that NDTV is trying hard, really hard, to project a Congress victory. Already, two programs have been aired about how the government will be formed based on the numbers of NDTV, as if these are actual results. Given past evidence, it is difficult to shake the feeling that perhaps the aim of the channel is to prevent potential Congress supporters from getting disheartened and not casting their vote for the party.

Past experience should have shown that such tactics do not pay any real dividend. What they certainly do is erode further the credibility of the media, sections of which already appear to be no more than PR wings of the Congress. But who cares as long as the moolah keeps coming in from entertainment channels, and the protection and help of the government remains on tap!

UPDATE: MAY 01

After phase 3, NDTV has projected that the Congress tally will go up to 171 seats,

UPDATE: MAY 07

After phase 4, the fizz has gone. NDTV has not made any projection!
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Readers may also read:
1. The real IPL T20 is on in UP!
2. Congress 'lashkar' standing still, but surrounded
3. The Varun sting: who is not playing the communal card
4. Opinions, not opinion polls
5. The real IPL T20 is on in UP - 2
6. Analysis of Phase 2 elections - AP
7. NDTV makes a mockery of exit polls

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

OPINIONS, NOT OPINION POLLS

Watching the "Opinion Polls" on NDTV and CNN-IBN often leaves one with a feeling that these polls reflect not the opinion of the people who are going to vote but of "opinion makers" who are using the platforms of these channels to project a Congress victory possibly in the hope that such projections will push undecided voters into backing the winning horse and thereby make these polls appear credible.

Recently, both the channels aired the results of the Opinion Polls carried out by them in respect of the critical state of Andhra Pradesh that sends as many as 42 MPs to the Lok Sabha. An analysis of what was shown to viewers has revealed that statistics were cleverly highlighted/hidden to fit what appeared to be an inflated projection of the seats that the Congress party will win in the state.

Before we get to the opinion polls, a look at the vote share in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections is necessary.

2004 Elections Vote share

Congress- 41.56%
TRS - 6.83%
Left - 3.61%
----------
Total -51%
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TDP - 33.15%
BJP - 8.41%
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Total 41.56%
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Others -7.44%

Alliances for 2009 Elections

In these elections, the Congress has lost both the TRS and the Left to the TDP. In lieu, it has got the AMIM whose influence is limited mostly to the Hyderabad seat. Therefore, if voters vote exactly as they did in 2004 for the alliances as they exist today, the vote share will be as follows:

Congress+ - 42%
TDP+ - 43.56%
BJP - 8.41%
Others - 7.44%

In 2004, there was some sort of a wave against Chandrababu Naidu. This time nothing of the sort, for or against anyone, has been spotted by any pollster. This election, however, sees the emergence of a new party, the Prajarajyam Party (PRP), floated by Telegu superstar Chiranjeevi. He is no NTR but has a strong following in some parts of the state outside Telengana. Naturally, both the CNN-IBN and NDTV pollsters are not able to put their finger on exactly what percentage of the voters will vote for PRP. Nevertheless, they have made their assessments and after factoring them in, have given out their verdicts on the likely results that Andhra Pradesh will throw up.

CNN-IBN Opinion Polls

CNN-IBN's first opinion poll this year was telecast in February and was based on a survey that was carried out before the Satyam scandal surfaced. It may be recalled that Andhra Chief Minister YSR Reddy has been accused by almost everyone of being involved with the Raju family in this huge corruption scandal running into thousands of crores of rupees.

This poll was also carried out before the TDP, the TRS and the Left formed an alliance. The party wise vote share then was:

Congress - 45%
TDP - 30%
BJP - 9%
PRP - 7%
Left - 2%
Others - 7%

The vote share of the TRS was not seperately given. But, if one were to go by what that party got in 2004, its alliance with the TDP along with Left means that this Grand Alliance, as per the figures of CNN-IBN, was getting almost 39% of the vote share in February. Notice the following anomalies in this projection:
  • The vote share of the Congress party has actually gone up by around 4% since 2004 despite the loss of key allies, and despite being in power for five years in the state.
  • The vote share of the the TDP has declined by 3.51%, even though there is no wave against the party this time.
  • The vote share of the Left has declined by 1.61%.
  • The vote share of the BJP is almost the same.
  • The vote share of TRS plus Others has declined from 14.27% to 7%. This means that either the TRS or the others have been decimated.
  • The 7% vote share that the PRS has created for itself comes from the TDP+Left (5.12%) and the Others, including the TRS (1.88%). It clearly gets nothing at all from the Congress. On the contrary, the Congress itself has got additional voters from elsewhere.
These projections clearly suggest that there is a real "wave" in favour of the Congress party.

There is little doubt that Rajdeep Sardesai and Yogendra Yadav knew that these statistics did not reflect the real situation on the ground. That is probably why in their latest Opinion Poll telecast on April 7, they have simply done away with the pretense of giving party wise vote share altogether! Seats predicted have, therefore, been called "simulation", not "projection". As per this "simulation", the basis of which remains unclear, the Congress (plus AMIM) is doing very well with 26 seats, of which the AMIM is not expected to get more than one seat. The TDP has 16 seats. The PRP has nil, despite its vote share now being between 8% and 15%, against 7% in January. But, says Yogendra Yadav, if there is a wave for PRP and it gets at least 25% of the vote share, then the Congress will get 22 seats, the TDP 15 and the PRP five.

No statistical data obtained during the latest Opinion Poll has been shared with the public to support this projection by channel. This must surely be a first in the history of opinion polls anywhere in the world.



NDTV Opinion Poll

Prannoy Roy and Dorab Sopariwala, in the Opinion Poll telecast by NDTV 24/7 on April 7, did not dispense with statistics totally but used them very creatively to arrive at their own seat projections. This was the projected vote share shown by them:

Congress+ - 40%
TDP+ - 38%
PRP - 14%
Others - 8%

The breakdown of Others, down sharply to 8% from 15.85% was not given at all. It must be mentioned that out of these Others, the BJP alone had 8.41% vote share last time. This time half of them have inexplicably vanished into one party or another!

But more important was the manner in which Prannoy Roy erroneously compared the present 40% vote share of the Congress party which is now alone, except for AMIM, with the 51% vote share of the big alliance that the Congress had last time, rather than with the 41.56% it had on its own. Thus, although as per NDTV's poll, the Congress party has lost only around 1.5% of the vote share that it had in 2004, Roy made it appear as if it had lost all of 8% to PRP and only 3% to TDP, when actually Congress+ has lost 10.51% to the TDP by the desertion of its erstwhile allies to that party. Similarly, the new TDP alliance had a 43.66% vote share based on the figures of 2004 ( TDP 33.15+TRS 6.83+Left 3.61). But NDTV showed it to be only 39%, down further by 1% this time. If NDTV is to be believed, this was due to 4% being taken away by PRP , offset by 3% taken by TDP+ from Congress!

Simple arithmetic tells us that if the Congress party had actually lost 11%, then it could not have lost only 3% to TDP+. Similarly, if PRP has got 14%, as the survey says it has, then it means that it actually has actually got net only 1.5%, not 8%, from the Congress, 5.66% from TDP+ and about 7% from other parties. This means that while PRP has eaten heavily into TDP plus, the BJP and other small parties, it has not been able to touch the Congress. Is this believable? So, this "Chiranjeevi Effect" that Prannoy Roy says has damaged the Congress by as much as 8%, is actually not true at all ! Surely, the team at NDTV knows that.


Thanks to this clever jugglery, NDTV has given the Congress 24 seats, the TDP 16 and PRP 2.

If indeed the PRP has taken away 8% and the TDP 3% of the vote share of the Congress party, as Prannoy Roy was emphatically telling viewers, then the vote share of the latter is actually down to 30.5%! How devastatingly does that translate into number of seats? Will Dorab Sopariwala be kind enough to tell everyone?

Summary


As is evident from the analysis above, both the opinion polls have attempted to project the Congress as doing very well in the key state of Andhra Pradesh. CNN-IBN, in one of its polls, actually shows a near 4% swing in favour of the Congress despite Chiranjeevi getting 7% vote share. NDTV, on the other hand, slyly slips in the unnoticed fact that despite Chiranjeevi getting a whopping 14% of the votes, double that shown by CNN-IBN, the vote share of the Congress remains almost untouched at the same high level that it was in 2004!

We will get to know what the real voter really wants only on May 16, 2009. But, as the analysis of the aforementioned opinion polls shows, it is becoming increasingly apparent that such polls are becoming less and less about the real opinions of the voters they are supposed to represent and more and more about the political predilections of those who commission them. That is why, perhaps, such polls-turned-opinions are going increasingly off the mark, even though they should be getting more and more accurate. Credibility and trust are taking a hit. But who cares?


UPDATE 10 PM APRIL 14

NDTV's opinion poll on UP has just been telecast. Although the Congress is shown as getting only 8 out of 80 seats, NDTV's Rahul worship was in full display. Within this poll on UP, there were three polls about Rahul alone! First was whether Rahul can revive the Congress in UP. 70% said "Yes". On a different question about the most popular leaders in the state, Mayawati was first, Mulayam second and Rajnath Singh third. Rahul was nowhere in picture. Despite that and despite the virtual decimation of the Congress there despite Rahul's efforts for seven years, he was voted as the hope of the Congress for UP. I don't know what to make of it.

The second question was whether Rahul will beome PM one day. If I recall correctly, around 78% said "Yes". The third question, hold your breath, was whether he is ready to be PM now. 52% said "Yes"! Why was that question asked in the first place? Are we heading for a Kashmir type surprise should the Congress come to power?

Even DD was never so sycophantic! So much for a free and honest media. These guys seem to have no qualms!

The real IPL T20 is on in UP! -2
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Readers may also read:
1. India Today-ORG-MARG-AC Neilsen Poll
2. Hi-Tech Vs People's Rule - Andhra Elections
3. Andhra Pradesh region-wise seat wise predictions
4. Swift message from swing states
5. Covering up the mother of all corruption scandals
6. NDTV makes a mockery of exit polls.
7. Real IPL T20 is on in UP!
8. NDTV sees Congress steaming ahead after Phase 2

Sunday, February 1, 2009

BARKHA DUTT AND 'FREE-DOOM' OF EXPRESSION

The blogosphere is abuzz with reactions to the slaying of the very concept of freedom of expression by Barkha Dutt whose arrogant dagger of intolerance has defined what may be the beginning of attempts to ensure 'free-doom' of those who use the internet to criticise the media. The rage of many has been tempered by fear-driven caution, and is a telling example of how easy it is for those with power and money to drown out the voices of ordinary people even on a world-wide platform the has become the bastion of the freedom of expression.

It is not possible that Ms Dutt and those at NDTV surf the net only to read about themselves. It is also not possible to believe that they are not aware of the kinds of criticism that many others face. Why, even George Bush did not react violently to the reactions that flooded the net after the famous shoes were flung at him in Iraq or to the various games that creative guys came up with to enable you and I to fling virtual shoes at him! Even CNN, an American channel, carried visuals of some of those games. The most powerful man in the world would have been upset, no doubt, but he chose to keep quiet while his wife simply expressed her displeasure.

India's media luminaries, however, seem to believe that they are beyond and above all scrutiny, criticism and questioning. They will have nothing more than 'self-regulation' even though some of them clearly deserve to be reined in and a few prevented from going on air without prior clearance. They will fight ferociously to defend their right to say whatever they wish to about anyone and anything. They will show their anger and arrogance as if they are appointees of the Lord in Heaven to sit in judgment over all on earth. Freedom of expression and the importance of a free media as a watch dog is something they will remind politicians about ad nauseum, only to scare them into behaving like rats while interacting with them.

Does it not logically flow, then, that those who will not allow even the high and mighty of the country to speak against them or criticise them because they are in a position to use the power of the media platform to destroy them, will do the same to ordinary nobodies finding their voices in a small corner on the net?

That old cliché about absolute power corrupting absolutely applies perfectly to the media which is enjoy unprecedented and unparalleled power today. Its only real competition is the internet. And mind you, this competition is not to be dismissed lightly. As internet penetration grows in India, its power will grow exponentially. Why? Because a lot people already know that media houses are not just business houses looking to maximise profits, but, in some cases, are as good as organs of certain political parties and are trying to push political agendas down the throats of unsuspecting citizens.

The perch of media stars is under serious threat by the truly free and democratic platform that the net is. Earlier, they were the leading and almost only agents of influencing and moulding public opinion. Many of them were always out of touch with real people and, instead of reporting as neutral observers, they had started imagining themselves as power houses that could influence voters, make or break governments, promote political parties they liked etc, no one to question. Not so any longer.

Media barons are beginning to realise that anonymous netizens can, due to the reach of the net, topple them from that arrogant perch that they have been sitting securely on till now thanks to the power of their platforms. They are as afraid of netizens as politicians are afraid of them. But they have not been able to do anything to stop them from saying what the media don't want to hear or others to know.

The gagging of Chyetanya Kunte by Barkha Dutt, who many believe is a mediocre and less than honest TV host who deserves to be taken off the air, is the visible expression of the real fear of mainstream media that the gaping holes in their houses and the ugly warts on their bodies are becoming visible to all. This is their first attempt to choke the freedom of expression of ordinary people by threatening them with 'free-doom' if they do to media personalities even a fraction of what many have done to Bush for example. Shoes can be thrown in cyber space at world leaders, not at those who write or speak about them.

Is this blatant bullying going to work? Yes, but not in the manner Ms Dutt or NDTV think it will. If at all, it is going to hasten her demise as a journalist of any worthwhile standing and that of the mainstream media as a trustworthy source of honest information and analysis. By succumbing to the brute power of the media, Kunte has actually awakened everyone to its real, ugly face. From now on, the slide in its credibility will only be faster and steeper. This had to happen sooner rather than later. Barkha Dutt has only given it a big push.

For those who want to read more, as they must, and get to other links, here are three posts by other bloggers that they will find useful:

1. Ego te provoco
2. NDTV arm-twists a blogger into submission.
3. The megalomania of Barkha Dutt

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

ISLAMIC TERRORISM: MUSLIMS IN INDIA LIKE JEWS IN NAZI GERMANY?


Of all the ugly charges and abuses being hurled at the Indian state, this one is the most horrific. And it has not been made by a demented cleric. It has been made by Shabnam Hashmi, the toast of India's English media. In a program on NDTV on September 22, 2008, she actually alleged that the condition of Muslims in India today was like that of Jews in Nazi Germany! Can anything be more incendiary and more blatantly untruthful?

As terror attacks on innocent Indians get bigger and more inhuman, bigger get the charges by educated, liberal Muslims against India, as if this country has consciously unleashed a pogrom to marginalise and demonise Muslims who really are the last word in peace, tolerance and inclusiveness. When the whole world knows that India is a ‘soft state’ unable to take even basic steps to tackle and defeat terrorism, Hashmi and the like want to make Indian Islamic terrorists look like heroic ’freedom fighters’ and jehadis, just as Pakistan does, by comparing the Indian state with Nazi Germany.

Suddenly, after the police managed to kill and nab young, educated members of the Indian Mujahideen(IM) who had been claiming responsibility for the blasts in Delhi, Jaipur and Ahmedabad, the tone of even liberal Muslims has changed. It is almost as if their gloves are finally off, now that it is no longer possible for them to keep pretending that Indian Muslims are not involved in terror attacks on innocent Indians across the country.

But for a cursory and slippery condemnation of the terror attacks, the focus is being sought to be shifted by Muslim intelligentsia to the alienation that Muslims are feeling in India. Hashmi, Owaisi, Mushirul Hasan and others are all now dexterously deflecting all discussions on terrorism to this alienation along various parameters like education, employment etc while at the same time saying that for the ‘yet unproven’ activities of a few individuals, the whole community should not be demonised.

No doubt the vast majority of Indian Muslims are silently against terrorism that clearly has Pakistani roots. But what is the direction being shown to them by their religious and community leaders? There is no honest introspection whatsoever, to truly educate the community which has got increasingly ghettoised in India and is now facing a similar situation globally. On the contrary, all their actions and statements show a peculiarly aggressive response which not only obliquely justifies terror attacks but also threatens that if the alienation is not reduced, even more innocent Indians will be blown to smithereens.

Is it not significant that the Shahi Imam of Delhi’s Jama Masjid attended the burial of the two terrorists killed by Delhi police in Batla House, Jamia Nagar, even though their families stayed away? What message is that going to convey to Muslims? Of course, to the cameras he will say that till proved guilty, they are innocent. That is something that everybody knows. But where was the need for the Imam of India’s biggest mosque to give such high profile respect to those who might be really be killers of scores of Indians? And if, as some suspect, he actually does know through his subterranean links that they were indeed responsible for the blasts, what dangerous message is he trying to ram into his country and the relatives of those whom these guys killed?

There is more. Some Muslim organisations coming together under the auspices of the ‘Coordination Committee of India Muslims’ have issued a press statement rejecting the Batla House operation carried out by Delhi police as fake, notwithstanding clinching evidence to the contrary and the death of Inspector Sharma to the bullets of terrorists. They have not stopped there and have demanded virtually separate and exclusive criminal laws and procedures for Muslims.

This is what they want: “We demand that whenever police undertakes a combing or search operation in any Muslim locality, at least one third of the raiding force must consist of officers belonging to the minority community, and minority elders of the affected area should be taken into confidence and made part of the enquiry and interrogation teams.” The separation that influential Muslim leaders want from the Indian state and other ordinary Indians is no longer limited to personal laws and a civil code. They now want a separate criminal code too. The sub text is that if the state does not give in, they will wave the alienation flag and justify all future killings of innocents by Islamic terrorists.

All this is really explosive stuff. This is just the perfect recipe to ensure increasing separation of Muslims from rest of the nation. This is just what is needed to ring alarm bells in the minds of people of other communities and destroy any possibility of mutual trust being built. Integration of any community or sect in the mainstream, essentially a matter of trust, is simply not possible when such statements and demands are made, not by religious extremists but by responsible community leaders.

It must be said that the process of eroding trust and fanning doubt is being helped no end by an irresponsible media obsessed with TRPs and brought up on theoretical secularism totally disconnected from the real world out there. Sections of the media are also responsible for inadvertently ‘justifying’ Islamic terrorism by myopically and dangerously linking it with ‘alienation’. Islamic terrorism has very different ideological roots and the Pakistan factor simply cannot be wished away.

It needs to be remembered that no other ‘alienated’ section of India’s population – there are many of them - goes around planting bombs to kill innocent people and taking pleasure in counting the ‘kills’.

Islamic terrorism has to be faced squarely without flinching and fought by all Indians, including Muslims, till it is decimated. It is time for the country’s many truly secular but silent Muslims and India’s media to recognise this fact which is staring them in the face, and contribute responsibly to the achievement of this sacred national objective.

This post was also published by Reuters.com

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Readers may also read:
1. Tackling Islamic terrorism: what India needs to understand
2. Rushdie and Jinnah: whither Indian Muslims?

Thursday, January 3, 2008

SECULAR FIDAYEEN BEGIN 2008 WITH A BANG

Barley three hours after the midnight which rang in 2008, there was a Fidayeen attack on the CRPF Camp at Rampur on the Delhi-Lucknow highway. Two personnel of the State police and six of the Central police, whose camp was the target, were killed while several others were injured. The attackers, after completing their deathly task, managed to escape, leaving those in charge of the security of the camp red in the face.

This Fidayeen attack was no ordinary operation. It was the first ever attack by terrorists on a police installation outside Kashmir. And it was carried out right in the heartland of India, close to Delhi. If one also takes into account the fact that more people have died recently in the rest of India as compared to Kashmir due to terrorist violence, the danger posed by the growing menace of Islamic terrorism to India can be wished away only by those who are either blind or motivated solely by petty personal or political considerations.

I have been facing some criticism for speaking and writing about the dangers of Islamic terrorism. Some believe the problem is not serious enough to merit more attention than it has been so far given by the government and the media. There are a few too who accuse me of secretly harboring political affiliations which are dangerously rightist! The problem for those who write or speak in English is that anytime they raise a voice warning the nation about the real and grave danger posed by the Islamic terrorism which Pakistan has successfully germinated in the India beyond Kashmir, they are shouted down by disconnected ‘liberals’ and politicians who are mortally afraid of losing Muslim votes.

The attack was bad enough; the response has been nothing short of disgraceful. Politicians have done little more than blame each other for the ‘security lapse’, as if that is all there is to terrorism. The Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh takes a dig at the Centre because the camp attacked was of CRPF which comes under the Centre while the BJP blames the Congress for failing to fight terrorism effectively; the sordid drama goes on endlessly. No one has time to spare a thought for the families of those killed and offer condolences.

To cap it all, a very senior police officer taking part in a debate on NDTV takes a dig at the Army and the intelligence agencies for allowing such terrorist attacks! Asked as to how the scourge of terrorism should be fought, he says the borders should be better secured to prevent infiltration of terrorists from that unnamed country whose name the whole world knows, and that intelligence should be improved.

I don’t know whether such hare-brained but politically acceptable ‘solutions’ reflect the isolated opinion of an officer who has beaten Peter’s Principle conclusively or the famed collective mediocrity and time-serving attitude of India’s bureaucracy which otherwise consists of some individually brilliant officers. I do know, however, that it is this sort of professional incompetence and palpable lack of honesty that is largely responsible for ensuring that there is no independent institutional mechanism to guide and enable, even compel if necessary, governments and politicians to put in place proactive and effective mechanisms to defeat this threat which is aimed at the very foundation and roots of this nation. Not surprisingly, this Pakistan promoted and propagated ‘war’ against the Indian state has steadily increased its strength and reach, the latest attack adding a new and dangerous dimension to it.

As to the role of the ever alert media in informing the nation about the new level to which Islamic terrorism has risen, dramatically and loudly announced by the Fidayeen to the whole world as a new year begins, the less said the better. For the last couple of days, top billing has gone to the molestation of two girls in Mumbai as they came out of a five star hotel after celebrating the New Year. The poor police commissioner who pleaded with the media to not disproportionately blow the incident out of proportion and “make a mountain out of a molehill” has been taken to the cleaners for downplaying such a major incident of prime national importance! The Fidyeen attack, the real mountain has, on the other hand, been converted into a molehill by the media, focused as ever on the metros, with special emphasis on those who can speak English!

I have written elsewhere on this site a number of times about the increasing danger that Islamic terror poses to this country, not to speak of the whole world at large. Some assessments are already proving to be almost prophetic. I do not think much purpose will be served by repeating here a short and incomplete version of what has already been said. Interested readers may like to go through the many previous posts on the subject, particularly the ones about The Prithviraj Chauhan syndrome, Secular Indian Mujahideen, Tackling terrorism in a democracy and Benazir Bhutto’s assassination: Lessons for India.

Don’t be surprised if those politicians who gave the ‘secular’ badge to the openly anti-national and communal SIMI (Students Islamic Movement of India) hamper a proper and thorough investigation into the latest Fidayeen attack in which Indian citizens have to be involved. One politician has already sat on a dharna in protest against the searches being carried out by the police in Muslim areas. But do get seriously concerned if these gentlemen find an ingenious way to call the Fidayeen who have begun 2008 with a bang secular too, particularly when it is time for elections.

With leaders like these, we don’t need Pakistan to drive the country towards communal violence and killings on a scale that will dwarf the massacres that engulfed the sub continent in 1947.

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

NDTV MAKES A MOCKERY OF EXIT POLLS

The recent assembly elections in Gujarat had almost the whole nation riveted. On one side was Narendra Modi and on the other were almost all others, including major elements of the Sangh parivar like the VHP and the RSS and disgruntled local BJP leaders.

When the first phase of polling took place on December 11, 2007, everyone awaited the results of the exit polls which were being conducted by various agencies, including leading news channels. Predictably, all exit polls showed a swing away from Narendra Modi resulting in a significant loss of seats to the BJP. But, all except NDTV showed the BJP still ahead of the Congress in the first phase, which saw ballots being cast for 86 seats.

Prannoy Roy, at one time the most respected Indian psephologist, and his assistant, Dorab Sopariwala, on the other hand, sprang a major surprise, showing on NDTV that the Congress had actually defeated the BJP in the first phase, by winning an astounding 43 seats, a jump of 13 from the seats it had won in 2002. Roy took pains to inform the viewers that the elections were held in a tense atmosphere and that Modi did not know the first name of Mahatma Gandhi. He also did not forget to inform the nation that Rahul Gandhi had campaigned extensively in the area for the Congress party. For Roy, the Rahul Gandhi factor was working again, just like he had hyper excitedly thought it had in the UP elections.

After the second and final phase of polling on December 17, 2007, when the interest in the outcome of the polls had reached an almost feverish pitch, all exit polls, including the one conducted by NDTV showed that Narendra Modi would, in all probability win the elections again, though with a reduced majority. That was not a surprising deduction, given the fact that most of the BJP leaders who had rebelled against Modi had their spheres of influence in the parts of Gujarat that went to polls in the first phase.

After giving out the precise number of seats likely to be won by each party in the first phase, along with statistical explanations, NDTV was expected to be equally precise in its forecast in the second phase too, considering that it had the largest sample size and the expertise of Prannoy Roy. But, surprisingly, what we saw was an unbelievable joke.

NDTV gave the Congress party, believe it you must, between 27 and, yes, 52 seats in the second phase! In percentage terms, this represents a variation of an absurd 92 percent above the minimum seats projected! The BJP was projected to win between 50 and 70 seats, a variation of 40 percent. Based on these figures and those of the first phase, the BJP was given a generous band of 90 to 110 seats while the Congress was projected to win between 70 and 95 seats, a whopping 35.7 percent cushion!

The table below explains it all nicely:-

-------------------------------------------------

BJP…………………...Seats……….. Variation

Phase 1……………….40…………………-

Phase 2……………….50-70………… 40%

Total……………………90-110………..22%

--------------------------------------------------

Congress……………Seats……….. Variation

Phase 1……………….43………………..-

Phase 2………………27-52……………92%

Total…………………..70-95…………..37%

---------------------------------------------------

Others………………Seats………….. Variation

Phase 1………………3…………………….-

Phase 2………………0-2…………………!

Total…………………..3-5……………….66%

----------------------------------------------------

What happened between the two phases that rendered NDTV helplessly incapable of giving as specific and clear a projection in phase 2 as it did after the first phase? Why did Roy not even try to explain the ‘scientific’ reasons behind what was clearly a mockery of exit polls after the second round, despite the claim of basing the projections on the largest sample size?

Is there any parallel anywhere in the world where a supposedly sophisticated statistical model throws up a variation of 92 percent from the lower end of the seats projected?

If we look back to the UP elections, there too Roy was clearly subjectively influenced by the impact of the Rahul Gandhi factor. There too he kept telling the nation right till the very end that the percentage share of the Congress party had gone up significantly. There too, NDTV had projected that the Congress would win between 35 and 45 seats, more than the projection of all other exit polls. In the event, the Congress won only 22 seats out of 403 and even suffered a drop in vote percentage!

The unexplainable volte face by NDTV in its exit poll after the second phase of the Gujarat elections is deeply disappointing and lends further credence to the widely held belief that the channel is almost a party organ of the Congress. In Tamil Nadu, when you tune into Jaya TV or Sun TV you know in whose political camp you are. Perhaps it is time for national parties to similarly openly ‘own’ their own channels and then propagate their agenda. At least viewers will be spared the sophisticated deception of objectivity that they are being subjected to now.

NDTV’s mockery of exit polls has one more deduction that refuses to go away. The way even the pretence of a fight by the Congress was hastily shed by Roy and Sopariwala after phase 2, shows that even NDTV is convinced that Modi is headed for a much bigger win than what the channel had initially anticipated but concealed. Sopariwala had even given a hint to this effect by saying softly that a two percent variation in the projected vote share either way would lead to a landslide victory for the BJP or the Congress.

Wait till the 23rd.