India Retold

During the last few days, calls to project Narendra Modi as Prime Minister have grown louder in the BJP. Starting with Arun Shourie, many top leaders of the party have now begun saying openly that he will be the next Prime Minister of India, after LK Advani who has been projected as BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate in these elections. Yashwant Sinha has, in fact, gone to the extent of saying that "India would be lucky to have him as Prime Minister".

The "Modi Wave" is not limited to the BJP or Gujarat only. It is building up elsewhere too. According to a report in the Economic Times of April 29, 2008, in Rajasthan, "so besotted is the average voter by the Gujarat strongman, he would not even blink his eyes before voting BJP were Modi the PM candidate". Party workers there also believe that had the BJP chosen Modi, the score in the state would have been 21-4 in favour of the party. It needs no imagination to conclude that with Modi at the helm, the BJP's tally in Gujarat, his own state, would have been 26-0. Maharashtra too would have been heavily impacted. Indeed the BJP would have benefitted in many other states and ridden to a dramatic victory, had it sought out Modi well in time.

Polling for half the seats has already been completed. And it is only now that BJP leaders have woken up to the power and pull of Modi. No doubt, this chorus of confidence in Modi and the open acceptance of his leadership by heavy weight second rung leaders of the party will enthuse some voters. But since this expression of support has come so late, there is little doubt that the impact will be far less than it would have been had the party announced a few months back, in some form or the other, that Narendra Modi was LK Advani's "running mate", to set at rest all doubts in the minds of party workers and voters who see in Modi the only leader who can replicate the Gujarat's blistering 12% economic growth and more in the rest of India.

Perhaps the last opportune moment for the BJP to project Modi as the No. 2 man in Advani's government and as his successor was in January this year when respected captains of the industry like Ratan Tata, Anil Ambani and Sunil Mittal unequivocally gave their vote of confidence in Modi's ability to be the next CEO of the whole nation. But, that heaven-sent opportunity, backed by hard evidence in the form of spectacular developmental results in Gujarat, was frittered away by the party's leadership.

I had written in August last year itself that the BJP needed to project Modi as PM to take on the challenge of a then resurgent Manmohan Singh and an ambitious Mayawati, who had got very close to the PM's chair that she is after when the Indo-US Nuclear Deal nearly led to the fall of the government. It was clear to me then itself that LK Advani was not the man who could galvanise the party and enthuse voters enough to lead the BJP to victory; if it wanted to win these elections, the party had no choice but to project Modi as its mascot.

One can understand that LK Advani, the man who virtually single-handedly made the BJP into the national force it is today, deserved to be given his due. Particularly when he had earlier shown the most genuine spirit of personal sacrifice by unilaterally declaring that Atal Bihari Vajpayee would be the PM, when it was taken for granted that the job was rightfully all his. That would have been appreciated by voters too and they would have willingly settled for Narendra Modi being fomally anointed his deputy and successor.

We can keep talking about the Gujarat riots and keep saying that Modi is a guilty butcher. Yes, the Supreme Court has asked the SIT to investigate the role of Modi and others in the post Godhra riots. But, nothing been found against him yet. And recently in a TV interview to Headlines Today, he went to the extent of saying that if he is guilty, he should be physically hanged and not allowed to get away with a mere apology like Congress leaders have been for their role in the massacre of Sikhs in Delhi. Also, in the last couple of years he has not made any statement that can be called communal and always speaks of all "five and a half crore Gujaratis"

Whether we hate or like Modi, there is no getting away from the fact that his spotless integrity and demonstrated ability to produce results at at a pace and of a quality that have never been seen in India has caught the imagination of many people, including his once bitter critic Suhel Seth. If you add to this the fact that he is a truly home grown product from an average background and can connect to ordinary people as well as put to shame the highly qualified dream team of Manmohan, Ahluwalia and Chidambaram on their turf, you have a visionary and result-driven mass leader without a peer. No wonder more and more people are climbing on to his bandwagon with every passing day.

The magic of Modi and the electrifying impact that he is making on voters across India has not been made use of by the BJP as it should have been. This election was actually a laid out cake walk for the party: the contrast between what Modi has achieved in Gujarat and what the Congress led central government has not, was too stark to have been left unexploited. But, the strategists of the BJP thought that Advani's less than impressive record as Home Minister and Leader of Opposition was enough to guarantee victory. They had shot themselves in both their feet last year on the issue of the Indo-US Nuclear Deal. If that was not enough, they shot themselves again on the Modi issue. Now perhaps they have suddenly realised that they have bled the party needlessly. So after virtually ignoring him for almost a year, they are now desperately seeking Modi.

Is it too late? Will Modi's belated "projection" as the next PM help the BJP get those few more vital seats that will make the difference between defeat and victory? Will Gujarat turn in a 26-0 verdict in Modi's favour on a few days notice? Will voters of Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Delhi, UP, Haryana, Bihar etc come out to cast their vote for Modi at this late stage? Or will the BJP rue what might turn out to be a blunder of himalayan proportions, should victory elude it, just? We will find out on May 16.
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Bangalore was supposed to be the showcase of a young, cosmopolitan, secular India that wanted to break free of the shackles of communal politics and octogenarian leaders. It was also the city that sections of India's media had been focusing on to highlight what they thought was a great rural-urban divide, and show to the rest of India and indeed the world that the young, vibrant India that they were showing in TV studios debates and chat shows was the real thing. What better way to prove you are right than through elections?

Unfortunately, after completion of polling for the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections, certain unpleasant home truths have started sinking in. Rajdeep Sardesai, among others, is angry that young voters did not come out to vote in Bangalore. The media were expecting a much better show, after all the hard work that they had put in to get young voters energised in what they believed was a manner that would strike a huge chord in them. For the record, the average turnout in the city was 46.66% compared to 51.5% in 2004. Worse, it was even lower at 44.73% in the most literate Bangalore South that boasted some great candidates, including Capt Gopinath.

What went wrong? Why did Youngistan not display the kind of keenness to make a difference that they should have, after the huge media focus on them, particularly in Karnataka? Why was there virtually no response to the sustained media campaign against the goons of the BJP and the Sangh Parivar for what they had been doing over the last couple of years in the state?

Remember how the whole nation was horrified at reports of churches being vandalised, apparently for no reason whatsoever, across the state, including Bangalore? Remember how Ram Muthalik and his supporters had beaten up boy and girls in a pub in Mangalore, to "protect" Indian culture? Remember how there were almost daily reports of how unsafe it had become for women to live in "BJP's" Karnataka, with them being molested regularly in safe Bangalore, arguably India's most modern and cosmopolitan city?

And who can forget the famous Pink Chaddi Campaign that a couple of journalists had launched in Delhi to awaken young, modern Indians to the grave danger being posed to the country by fascist goons of Muthalik's Ram Sene. If one had gone by the kind of blanket media coverage that campaign got in the visual and print media, one would have concluded that modern India was fed up with the backward-looking policies and fascist mindset of the BJP and its parivar, and was desperately looking for a new direction, the US firmly in sight.

25% of India's voters are under 35. India has perhaps the largest proportion of young voters in the world. Yet, India's leadership is largely in the hands of people who are in their seventies and eighties. These facts have been highlighted ad nauseum over the last couple of years in the media to motivate the youth to vote for young leaders who are in tune with their aspirations and mindsets. Campaigns like "Jaago Re" and Lead India, rock concerts, TV chat shows, blogs etc have all been creating so much of noise that it was taken for granted that the youth, India's Youngistan, would actually "shut up and vote" in these elections.





Why have both these broad strategies, one positive for a young and modern secular India represented by the Congress, and the other negative against a communal BJP, failed to enthuse voters of Youngistan to come out in Bangalore and elsewhere and say what was expected they would after such 'carpet bombing'?

It now appears that people who live in Bangalore are not enthused by all this talk of youth and modernity, and understand well that there is much more to leadership than age and pop music. Why only Bangalore? Even in his home state of UP, Rahul, Gandhi has not been able to make his presence felt beyond the family constituency of Amethi, where too just about 45% turned up to vote? And, if one takes into account the results of assembly elections in the last few years, it becomes clear that Rahul Gandhi has not been able to inspire Indians, young and old, anywhere in the country. Now, if one is unable to do that despite such a heavy duty surname and a fawning media pulling out all stops to promote him, surely the message that should not be missed is that people have not found in him what the are looking for in the leader of this country.

Similarly, the incessant hate campaign to make young voters vote against the BJP and, therefore, for Rahul's Congress, has not energised young voters of Bangalore to come out to vote the BJP out. Is it because they know more than what the rest of the nation has been told by the media? Or is it because they do not quite look at things in the manner that a few disconnected, rootless and politically motivated people who populate the media do? Or is it because they believe that this is actually a sick mind game being played by the media to make them vote for the Congress, which they think is as bad as, if not worse than, the BJP?

The contrast between the disinterest shown by educated and aware young voters of Bangalore in the Lok Sabha elections and the enthusiasm that was shown by voters in the US last year to elect Barack Obama has a big lesson for India's media and its politicians. Americans voted wholeheartedly for an unknown and inexperienced Obama not because they thought that John McCain was not good enough to be their President but because Obama fired their imagination and kindled their hopes in a manner that made them forget the colour of his skin. He was not created by the media; nor was McCain run down by anyone including Obama himself.

The silent but effective message given by the young voters of Bangalore, Pune and many other cities and towns should open many eyes. As things appear now, it seems that India's media have not only failed to achieve what they wanted to in these elections, but have also inadvertently made more formidable a couple of other political leaders in the opposite camp and brought them to the centre stage.

This is what happens when you are arrogant, out of touch with people and try to use a powerful medium to push a motivated political agenda through.
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Voting for 265 seats to the Lok Sabha has been completed and everyone is trying to gauge the pulse of the people at this half-way mark. Most analysts are not sticking their necks out to predict as to which party/alliance is ahead. The general view is that it is too close to call, the UPA seems to have lost ground in the last couple of months and something unusual is brewing in Uttar Pradesh.

But if NDTV is to be believed, the Congress is actually steaming ahead to a remarkable victory. As against 145 seats that it won in 2004, Prannoy Roy and Dorab Sopariwala believe that the party is going to get as many as 20 seats more this time to hit 165. The BJP, on the other hand, is seen by them as slipping from 138 to 125 seats. Thus, the Congress, which beat the the BJP by seven seats in 2004 to emerge as the largest party, is charging ahead of it by as many as 40 seats after five years in power. If this is really what is happening on the ground, this election is already over and the Congress is without an iota of doubt set to head the next government in Delhi.

Now let us examine broadly how NDTV has conjured these figures.


Take Andhra Pradesh first. NDTV sees the Congress doing so well there that it will get 27 seats there as against 29 that it got last time when there was an anti-TDP wave and when it had the TRS and the Left as allies. Despite loosing all of them and having only the one-seat MIM in its fold this time, the Congress is down by only two seats. This, despite Chiranjeevi's PRP getting around 24% vote share in Telengana and about 13% in the rest of the state, as you can see Roy saying himself in this video. He also believes that the PRP has eaten only into the TDP's vote share, leaving the Congress almost completely unscathed. NDTV's opinion poll had earlier shown the Congress getting between 21-23 seats, plus one for the MIM. Now, it seems as if a wave has emerged suddenly in favour of the party. The Satyam scandal in which CM YSR Reddy is widely perceived to be fully involved has surprisingly made him more popular in the last few days.

In the other key state of Tamil Nadu where the DMK led UPA has been deserted by all allies, except the Congress, the UPA is seen as doing very well still with as many as 21 out of the 39 seats that the state has, with the DMK getting 15 and the Congress six, a loss of only four for the latter compared to the last time when the alliance had made an unprecedented clean sweep, bagging all 39 seats! The grand alliance forged by Jayalalitha is not working, if NDTV is to be believed.

In Maharashtra too, the Congress is doing extremely well. The unending bickering with Sharad Pawar is paradoxically working in its favour, taking its tally up from 13 in 2004 to 15 now. Similarly, in Rajasthan, the Congress is seen jumping from four to 16 seats while the BJP comes down sharply from 21 to 8. Gujjar leader Bainsla's joining the BJP and the decision of ex-servicemen to support the BJP in this state which has a significant population of both gujjars and military men is somehow working in favour of the Congress. In Orissa, the Congress jumps to the top spot with 10 seats, up eight, beating even Naveen Patnaik's BJD. Similar gems can be found in some other states too.

The strangest figures of all are for UP. Here, the Congress is losing just one seat against the nine that it got in 2004. But the BJP is mysteriously doing worse despite an alliance with the RLD. Last time it won 10 seats on its own. Now, it is getting only seven, despite that tie-up which all others see as helping it in Western UP, with the RLD getting three.

According to a number of analysts, there is clearly a real change in the air in UP which can turn in surprising results. The upper castes and non-dalits who had deserted the BJP to go with Mayawati in the assembly elections are apparently not with her this time. Then there is intense polarisation of votes in a number of constituencies due to the decision of the Ulema Council to field its own Muslim candidates in seven constituencies and Varun Gandhi's controversial speech. If anything, this should see an increase in BJP's tally, not a decrease, as NDTV is projecting. No one knows what the increase will be. If it is 20 or thereabout, the BJP will undoubtedly emerge as the single largest party at the national level.

A word here about West Bengal. Here, the Congress has committed what might turn out to be the biggest blunder of this election, if not all time. And not a single analyst has yet spoken about it. By aligning with Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress(TMC) against the Left, the Congress has potentially gifted a 20 seat advantage to the NDA. How important this will prove in sealing the fate of the Congress will depend on how many seats it can get on its own. If it has to depend on the support of the Left to form the government, as looks certain, the TMC will walk over to the opposite camp.

Last time the Congress had got six seats alone. This time it is not seen getting even one more. The TMC is the only one gaining from this alliance and that too by 10 seats or more. And it will get all of them from the Left. So, if the Congress has no choice but to go with the Left, the UPA's total tally will get reduced by at least 10 while the NDA will get an equivalent 10 seat bonus for free. A more dumb and potentially suicidal alliance has perhaps never been entered into by any party till now. It would have made sense only if the Congress was dead sure of doing so much better than last time that it could form a government without the Left. What were the Congress brains thinking when they went to Mamata?

With three phases of polling still to go, NDTV has declared Congress the winner, and doing much better than it did during the last elections. But, as will be evident from the above analysis, there is going to be substantial revisions in these manifestly cooked-up figures by the time voting for all seats is over.

Something similar had happened in the Gujarat Assembly elections, that too in the exit polls. After the first phase of polling for 86 seats, NDTV actually showed the Congress ahead of the BJP 43-40. But after the second phase was completed and it was no longer possible to hide the bitter truth, the Congress was shown getting between 27 and 52 seats in that phase, an unbelievable variation of 25 seats, with the total coming to between 72 and 95. How much did the Congress actually get? Just 59 seats.In the UP assembly elections too, NDTV had seen a sort of "wave" being generated by Rahul Gandhi, due to which the nation was told that the vote share of the Congress was going up and the party was certain to win between 35 and 45 seats. It won 22 and suffered a drop in vote percentage. Does all this tell you something about what to expect in these elections where NDTV has given 165 seats to the Congress?

This time also it seems that NDTV is trying hard, really hard, to project a Congress victory. Already, two programs have been aired about how the government will be formed based on the numbers of NDTV, as if these are actual results. Given past evidence, it is difficult to shake the feeling that perhaps the aim of the channel is to prevent potential Congress supporters from getting disheartened and not casting their vote for the party.

Past experience should have shown that such tactics do not pay any real dividend. What they certainly do is erode further the credibility of the media, sections of which already appear to be no more than PR wings of the Congress. But who cares as long as the moolah keeps coming in from entertainment channels, and the protection and help of the government remains on tap!

UPDATE: MAY 01

After phase 3, NDTV has projected that the Congress tally will go up to 171 seats,

UPDATE: MAY 07

After phase 4, the fizz has gone. NDTV has not made any projection!
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John Abraham thinks she is "the sexiest woman in India by eons and light years" and believes that she is "going to be the real power centre in future". For the last 20 years, she has been asked about her joining politics but she has always said that she will not. Ever since she hit the campaign trail in Amethi and Rae Bareilly a few days back to seek votes for her mother and brother, she has impressed almost everybody with the manner in which she communicates and the connect that she seems to establish with ordinary people easily. Her "budiya" and "gudiya" spat with BJP's charismatic speaker Narendra Modi has also caught the imagination of many who see that spark of charisma in her too.

As a result, the calls for her to join politics are only getting louder with every passing day. On her own part, after consistently maintaining that she will never join politics, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra finally said a few days back said that although she was still not interested in joining politics, as she has grown older she has learnt one must never say never. As if on cue, her husband, Robert Vadra, is now saying that she will enter the arena at the right time.

It is thus only a question of time before Priyanka takes the political plunge. Making the task easy for her is the indisputable fact that her brother, Rahul Gandhi, has failed to make the kind of impact that he was expected to, to turn the sinking fortunes of the Congress around. He might be sincere and hard working, as Priyanka says, but he clearly lacks that charisma, that magic that can sway and charge people. When he speaks to the public, it is almost as if he is mechanically reading out a script that has been given to him.

When Priyanka speaks, she gives you a feeling as if she is speaking to you, person to person. Her fresh, fetching looks, her ready and genuine smile, and her easy, natural charm make it appear as if she is perfectly at home in a saree or salwar kameez in the house of a poor dalit, or in trousers and tucked-in shirts in Lutyen's Delhi. Indeed, as fashion designer Rina Dhaka says, she will fit on even a fashion runway anywhere in the world "from here to Sao Paulo".

This power combination, which has energised John Abraham enough to make him risk the wrath of his girl friend Bipasha Basu, adds up to a political dynamite that can explode through many of the limitations that the Congress faces today. And John is not the only one who thinks so. There are many others out there searching for her pictures on the net, often of the "Carla Bruni" variety that someone bought last year for $ 91,000. Whichever way you look at it, it cannot be denied that Priyanka will do to Indian politics what Sania Mirza has done to Indian tennis. Add to that the multiplier effect of her pedigree and you have the dream leader that every political party wants. Move over Varun Gandhi.

It is perhaps too late for Priyanka to take on the task of rejuvenating the Congress party and attracting voters to make any difference to the outcome of these elections. People have woken up too late to the realisation that there is a crying need for a charismatic leader in the Congress. I wrote about it almost a year back, when the Congress was cozying up to the Samajwadi Party(SP) in UP. Then itself I had said that the real SP that Rahul Gandhi needed was Sister Priyanka, and not the party of Mulayam Yadav.

Had the Congress realised then itself that it had the winner it was looking for and got Priyanka to get into active politics, perhaps the outcome of these elections would have been quite different. The way things are unfolding, it is now only a question of time before she gives in to popular demand and takes the political plunge. Her recent statement that she must never say never, and her husband's public support should leave no one in any doubt that the announcement might be made soon after the elections, particularly if the Congress performs below expectations. Sooner the better.
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Naveen Chawla, the Election Commissioner who has been facing allegations of political partisanship almost since the day he was appointed to what is supposed to be a neutral body, has taken over as the Chief Election Commissioner(CEC) today. Despite the written recommendation of his predecessor, N Gopalaswamy, that he was unfit to hold this high constitutional office, the government has chosen what the whole world believes is favoritism over fairness.

The role of the three Election Commissioners in ensuring free and fair elections is vital to the survival of democracy. At the time of the elections, they have sit in judgment over incidents and complaints of electoral malpractices by various political parties and candidates. Therefore, they have not only to be spotlessly fair, but have to be seen to be so. For that, no one in his right mind can disagree that all political parties should consider them to be politically neutral. The Caeser's wife principle has to apply to them.

In the appointment of Naveen Chawla as the CEC, the Congress has brazenly ignored that touchstone. As a result, the Election Commission is now a body in whose impartiality virtually no political party except the Congress has faith. By rewarding one individual for what a lot of people perceive is his close association with the Nehru-Gandhi family, the Congress has shaken the very foundation of the institution.

Already, noises are being made about the political partisanship of the Election Commission. It started with the Varun Gandhi case when the commission issued an unprecedented advice to the BJP to avoid fielding him as a candidate due to his hate speech. This hurried decision was based on the CDs of the hate speech which the commission, trusting the eyes and ears of the three ECs, found to be not tampered with. The same commission has not taken any action on the hate speeches being repeatedly made by Sanjay Dutt to anger Muslims and get their votes. For those who might not know details, Sunil and Nargis Dutt's son, is going around the country telling voters that he was beaten up in jail because he was a "musalman ka bachcha" (child of a Muslim), his mother being Muslim, and that other Muslims in jail with him faced similar treatment. For decades he did not make such an allegation to anyone, including his father, who was a Congress MP.

There are other cases of hate speeches too which the EC has ignored. It may have done so on merit. But the perception that it is a biased body is not going away, as the Congress should have known, as should have Naveen Chawla himself. Had the perceptions been voiced respectfully to express disagreements with the views and decisions of the EC, all would have appeared fine. In fact all political parties are giving that respect to the commission, partly because in the middle of elections they were wary of annoying the wise ECs.

But Mayawati is not one to couch truth, even a ounce of it, in sophisticated words that give the recipient of her fury a respectable escape route. She fired the first salvo against the Commission when it ordered the removal of the Principal Secretary (Home) of UP. Not only did she show that finger by appointing him almost immediately as Principal Secretary in the CM's secretariat, she hit back by saying that the transfer was "politically motivated" and warned that the EC would be responsible if any there were any law and order problems. No prizes for guessing who was the "motivator" she was referring to.

As per news being flashed on various channels, she has shed even that small pretence and has now openly called the Election Commission a "stooge of the Congress" and attacked even the other EC, SY Quraishi. This is something that almost all non-Congress politicians have been wanting to say but were afraid to. This is in response to the orders of the EC transferring three police officers in connection with the death under suspicious circumstances of a candidate, Bahadur Sonkar, who was found hanging from a tree. No matter what some people might say about Mayawati, she is the CM of India's biggest state and might well be the PM next month if the results do not throw up a clear winner.

There are still more than three weeks to go before the last phase of the elections. Undoubtedly, more complaints will be made and more decisions taken by the Election Commission. With Naveen Chawla as the CEC, there is little doubt that the Commission is going to face many more charges of being an extension of the Congress party rather than being the impartial body it is supposed to be.

There is little doubt that many of these allegations will be "politically motivated". But, can the fact be denied that by letting what many believe is its obsession to ensure that the EC does not work against its interests, the Congress has opened the doors to the denigration of the institution itself? Is there anyone who thinks that Chawla's appointment was free of partisan interest?

The serious damage that has been done to the image of the EC can now not be undone. But, this should set alarm bells everywhere including in the media. It needs to be mentioned that had the media been more alive to their responsibilities as a neutral watchdog, perhaps things would not have come to this sorry pass. Something needs to be done to ensure that this does not happen again.

No matter which political party is in power, as long as it has the sole discretion to appoint guys who have to sit in judgment over it, it will succumb to the temptation to pick someone who will act as its agent in the Commission. That is an unpleasant fact that cannot be denied. Therefore, if the sanctity and authority of the EC has to be safeguarded then it has to start from the selection of the ECs itself. There have been suggestions of involving the Leader of the Opposition, among others, in the selection process. The basic principle that needs to be followed in adopting a new system is that there should be no scope for any insinuation that an EC has been appointed on the basis of political partisanship. The Caeser's wife principle has to applied without any reservation.

After the Varun Gandhi episode, there has been a lot of talk about giving more "teeth" to the EC. Sure, that change is sorely needed. But that must not be even thought of as long as the political party in power remains the sole appointing authority of the three Election Commissioners.
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India is likely to face another Mumbai 26/11 type of attack in the near future. That is the assessment of Startfor, a US intelligence think-tank. Really, do we need anyone to tell us that this is something that is inevitable? Or do we naively believe/hope that the US is going to protect us against such attacks with the power of the dole that it is giving to a sinking Pakistan? Or that the Pakistanis have been sufficiently sacred by the shrill "all options are open" war cry and empty threats of surgical strikes that Indian leaders unleashed after Mumbai was attacked?

Nearly five months after India faced its deadliest terror attack, everything is back to normal. Everyone has forgotten about the horror that the country faced for three days. Everyone, almost, is relieved that the 'foolish hawks' who were irresponsibly talking of war with a nuclear Pakistan have become quiet. Also everyone, well not quite, has also heaped praise on the government for the very mature manner in which it has handled the crises and defused tensions.

All that is fine. But, no one is asking the two critical question that need to be asked: What has India done since then to deter state/non-state actors - call them what you like - from Pakistan from launching more such attacks? What is India going to do when, not if, another such attack does take place?

Narendra Modi has been ridiculing the government for running to Obama after the Mumbai attacks rather than doing something tangible to sort Pakistan out. Stratfor is also of the view that the UPA government was too soft and that India is likely to deliver a more forceful response should the BJP come to power after these elections. Is that really so? Yes, the general view is that the UPA has been ignoring the increasing threat of terror that India faces from Pakistan. But, would a BJP government have really responded very differently to Mumbai 26/11, and will it do so if it comes to power?

The response of the government of any sovereign state to an act of war depends mainly on two related and somewhat interdependent factors: its tolerance threshold and the relative combat power of the states involved. While there is certainly a difference between the tolerance threshold of the Congress and the BJP, they both have the same military at their disposal. The weakness of latter is what has made repeated terror attacks on India an almost zero-risk option for Pakistan for decades. As Pakistan knows better than all armchair analysts, that is going to make it virtually impossible for India to exercise a limited military option even in the future. Why? Because should the war escalate into a full blown conventional affair, India's defence forces are not in a position to give an iron-clad guarantee of success. And, failure - even a stalemate - is simply unacceptable for a country that has seven times the population of its adversary and wants to believe that it is about to become a super power.

There is a lot of uninformed talk that the era of wars is over and that it is economics and not military strength that matters in the 21st century. Those who talk on these lines are obviously blind to what the Americans and the Chinese are doing. China is not much larger than India. It has a border dispute only with this country and faces no threat from any of its other neighbours. If the Chinese leaders were Indian, they would probably have taken the Nehruvian route and almost mothballed their defence forces. But, being realists who know history and the role that power will continue to play in shaping it, they have done exactly the opposite. As a result, their military might has grown to a level that even the Americans are beginning to see a real threat to their uni-polar dominance of the world.

India, on the other hand, despite having been invaded and humiliated by the Chinese in 1962, have simply done nothing to match China's military might. And now the asymmetry is so great that whenever the Chinse decide to use force to annex Indian territories claimed by them, as indeed they will at a time of their choosing, it will be an almost no-contest.

Worse is what we have done vis-à-vis a much weaker and smaller Pakistan. We have allowed that country to militarily match up to us to a point where it can deter us from using the military option. India has the economic strength to simply make it a no-race for Pakistan that cannot spend beyond a point on defence. This would have happened on its own had India's sights been fixed on a maintaining a similar balance with China. But our leaders, devoid of any strategic vision, chose to ignore the role and relevance of the military as a key instrument of state policy. As a result, this is the only nation in the world that is happy maintaining an edge over a far smaller neighbour while pretending that a slightly bigger one, who has consciously chosen to become very powerful, does not exist!

It is because of this thinking that rather than India deterring Pakistan from launching and sustaining a proxy war, it is Pakistan which has successfully deterred India from reacting militarily in a manner that puts the cost-benefit ratio indisputably in India's favour. And Mumbai 26/11 was not the first time that India was provoked, almost taunted. Kargil and the attack on Parliament should have woken up a drowsy security establishment to the realisation that Pakistan was going to keep at it as long as it was sure it was going to get away. And how was it going to come to that conclusion? The cowardice of India's leadership, as former ISI chief Hamid Gul called it, coupled with the continuing absence of an unbridgeable military gap. Since India is even now simply not interested in doing anything about it, its tolerance threshold is per force very high. And Pakistan is going to test it to the limit. It knows only too well that the "zero tolerance" to terror that its politicians loosely talk about is just gas.

When there was serious talk of war after 26/11, the realisation hit that India's military was not ready for it. There were critical shortages of combat equipment due to which the military was perhaps weaker than it was at the time of Kargil. No wonder military commanders refused to go to war; you can't fight a real war with words.

Has anything changed nearly five months later? Major shortages of combat aircraft, air defence systems and artillery guns still exist. May be changes and preparations have been made, where they can be within limitations, to give a swift riposte to Pakistan should another attack be launched. But my sense is that the moment Pakistan gets to know through its intelligence network that India has both the political will and the military wherewithal to defeat Pakistan in a limited conventional war below the nuclear threshold, it will change tactics and opt for less spectacular attacks or go in for attacks carried out by Indian citizens only. If Startfor is to be believed, that has clearly not happened.

Narendra Modi might ridicule the Congress; the BJP may arguably display greater political will to retaliate. But the hard fact is that even if there are 10 more Mumbai 26/11s, no government will be able to make Pakistan pay in the only manner that will compel it to abandon its present course. This is the price this nation has paid and will keep paying for the failure of all governments to build and use the military as the cutting tool of coercive diplomacy and deterrence.

So, when the next 26/11 takes place, India will still be found running helplessly to the US, crying "Obama, O ba, O ma", as Modi has been saying to ridicule the Congress. Even if Modi himself is the Defence Minister then.
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Readers may also read:
1. Making India safe: cosmetic changes will not stem rot
2. Mumbai 26/11: will India use the miltary option?
3. Kashmir and Afghanistan are two sides of the same coin
4. India and Pakistan are not victims of the same terror

If there is one Indian who has made the worst type of "hate speeches" and used all kinds of falsehoods to inflame Muslims against Hindus, and that too for years, it is the so-called social activist Teesta Setalvad. Yet despite all the venom that she has been spewing in a voice that seems to come from the grated gut of a bitter person who has never known love, she has been the darling of India's mainstream media and like-minded "secularists".

For her ceaseless efforts to fraudulently portray Hindus at large as cold-blooded rapists and murderers, Teesta has been praised, feted, quoted and admired by the rootless variety of Indians who are ever ready to pounce at the smallest of incidents that show Hindus to be the most intolerant and communal minded of all communities in India. Indeed, if one were to believe this lot which has a vice-like grip over the media, secularism survives in India only because of the unending sacrifices and unbreakable secular beliefs of Muslims and other religious minorities; given even a sliver of a chance, Hindus will make the Taliban look like angels.

Look at the awards this secular brigade and a grateful Congress government have heaped on Teesta:

• Padma Shri
• M.A.Thomas National Human Rights Award from the Vigil India Movement.
• Parliamentarians for Global Action 'Defender of Democracy' award, jointly with Helen Clark, the Prime Minister of New Zealand.
• The Nuernberg Human Rights Award
• The Nani A Palkhivala Award

Teesta, much like the violent river she is named after, might well have continued on her path of hate and falsehood and been awarded the Padma Bhushan next, had the SIT led by former CBI Director RK Raghavan not exposed the fact that she cooked up tales of macabre and wanton killings, tutored and threatened false witnesses and levelled false charges against Police Chief Pandey.

Remember that horrifying and unbelievable story about a mob gang raping a pregnant Muslim woman, Kausar Banu, and then gouging out her foetus with sharp weapons? That is an example of the utterly sick level to which Teesta descended in her campaign of brutal, unforgiving hate for which recourse to falsehood was not something that shamed her at all.

I am not able to determine whether it is Ms Setalvad who has done more harm to the nation with her sustained and bitter vitriol or it is the secular media which is responsible, first for promoting her campaign ad nauseum most irresponsibly because she spoke their secular language of hate and now by virtually shielding her from the public fury and wrath that she deserves.

Ajmal Kasab, the sole surviving Pakistani terrorist responsible for the Mumbai 26/11 terror attack was supposed to be the trump card that India had to expose Pakistan's hand in the blasts. Remember that thick dossier that India sent to Pakistan as "proof" based on his confessional statement? Remember Narendra Modi bringing out that when, thanks to the doing away of POTA, his confessional statement was not admissible as evidence even in India, how was Pakistan expected to accept it as nothing but the truth? Remember how everyone has been shouting that he should be give a "fair" trial and saying that it was an open and shut case that would be over in six months?

Kasab has killed many people in full glare of CCTV cameras in the only "secular" nation in the world where he can get away lightly. Not only is he going to get a "fair" trial, he is not going to convicted in a hurry, if at all. For all you know, he might even be released in a hostage situation, like we saw in the the case of the kidnapping of Rubiya Sayed and the Kandahar hijack. Although he is a foreign national who has waged war on India, he is being tried by a benign Indian judicial system designed to give him many years to live as a VIP prisoner.

SG Abbas Kazmi, the lawyer appointed to defend Ajmal, made it clear on the very first day of the trial that this is not a case which is going to get over in a hurry, all the evidence against him notwithstanding. First, he pleaded that Kasab was under 17 and, therefore should be tried by a juvenile court. When the court rejected that argument on the basis of the statement given by Kasab where he had said that he was 21 years old, Kazmi retracted that confession saying that it was made under duress. Kazmi is in no mood to "co-operate" with the prosecution to ensure that justice is done swiftly in this most straightforward and horrifying of cases that had the whole nation enraged. A protracted legal battle is certain.

What is Pakistan going to do now? It will throw Kasab's statement into the Arabian Sea and stop further investigation because this statement is not only not evidence under India law but has been denied by Kasab himself. There is more. Don’t be surprised if Pakistan sends across some proof that Kasab is 17 indeed. His mother may even come down to Mumbai and give such a statement. The way things are shaping in this case which Ram Jethmalani had boasted would be over in five minutes, Ajmal Kasab will probably never be hanged.

Is this what we call a "fair" trial when on the very first day of the trial it is beginning to look that he actually might get away despite all the evidence against him? Why is there no TV studio outrage at a defence lawyer for whom shameless use of utter falsehoods to protect the murderer of innocent Indians takes precedence over truth and the pain of the entire nation? Is Kazmi interested in justice or is he more than keen to help the foreign killer of many Indians get away by using unfair means? Where is his conscience as a citizen of India?

Will there be calls for re-introduction of the clause to include confessions made before a police officer as evidence? Will there be a demand for trying foreign nationals who wage war against India by a military or similar court expeditiously? You know the answer. What, in fact, is most likely to happen is that the secular media is soon going to start hounding the government for being unduly harsh on a delicate young boy who was led astray by the LeT that exploited his poverty. Human Rights activists will soon be made to appear on every TV channel to complain about the violation of Kasab's human rights and lecture India on how it needs to treat him fairly as a civilised nation. Similar views of "secular" Indian citizens will also be aired, to make the whole nation feel as if it is the real sinner harassing an innocent kid.

Cut to Varun Gandhi about whom I have written in detail in a few other posts. What is the verdict of the secular brigade in his case? He is guilty and "must not be allowed to get away". In fact he is so dangerous that he must be locked up under the draconian NSA which has not been used even to put behind bars terrorists-without-religion and their abettors responsible for killing faceless, expendable Indians. He says the CDs of his speech are doctored; of course he is lying. Why has he not proved that they are? Why should we even bother to ask those who did the sting to prove that their CDs are authentic, or take the trouble to do it ourselves? They appear to us to be authentic; we have seen and heard them. Nothing more is needed to pronounce him guilty and extremely dangerous for the secular fabric of this nation. A court decision will take years to come. We canot wait till then. Justice has to be administered instantly in this case which is even more water tight than Ajmal's. Varun must not be allowed to make political speeches and even contest elections. His guilt has already been established.

Why should a greenhorn politician like Varun Gandhi be declared guilty without trial? He has spoken "against" Muslims; that is just not acceptable. You are a secular hero only if you make hate speeches and do worse against Hindus, not for them. He has done the exact opposite, so what if it is only in one unverified speech. His is an unpardonable crime for which he deserves no mercy, no sympathy. Jail is the only place for him. Straightaway. In the secular India of our dreams, there is no place for communal politicians or parties who ask for the "Hindu" vote. We accept only secular parties who ask for the Muslim vote and/or those who ask for the vote of Hindus not as a whole but in fragments like Yadavs, Dalits, Reddys, Vokkaligas etc

Why should a dangerous hate-driven, communal monster like Teesta Setalvad be loaded with awards? This champion of secularism had no choice but to cook up ghastly incidents and tell all sorts of horrendous lies. That was the only way she could drive home the "truth" that Modi is a mass murderer and Hindus are cold-hearted barbarians who hate and kill peace-loving Muslims for no reason at all. She has done great service to the cause of a secular India. She is the great protector of helpless minorities. Forget punishment or condemnation, she, in fact, deserves many more awards.

Why should a Pakistani terrorist like Ajmal who killed scores of people in cold blood, be allowed to dishonestly exploit the big gaps in India's lax legal system? India must be seen as being "fair" to its Muslims; it should not appear to them that Kasab is being disadvantaged in any manner because he is a Muslim. So what if he is a Pakistani? He is a Muslim first. Secular India cannot be seen to be treating any Muslim with even the whiff of vendetta. That is why we did notask for a ban on SIMI, till it started indulging in violence. We know that it has been saying since 1977 that it does not believe in secularism or democracy, is waiting for another Ghaznavi and wants to establish the rule of Islam in India. You can't put people from the minority community into jail only because they say that their aim is to turn the whole of secular India into a theocratic Pakistan.
.
Teesta, Ajmal and Varun. All of them are experiencing the might of India's very powerful secular and "liberal" activists who are completely and ruthlessly intolerant of any view that clashes with theirs. While Teesta and Ajmal are basking in their support, Varun is being singed by their fury. Teesta Setalvad is their ugly, dishonest, hate-filled face; Ajmal is the poster boy who they will use to show to the world how "fair" India is to its minorities who are reeling under the imaginary oppression of Hindus. Varun, a Gandhi, is the unexpected red rag who can ruin their party. They are not going to allow him or anyone else to do that. Come what may. Even if in the process, truth and morality have to be sacrificed with a cold, "Teesta"ease that can send shudders down your spine.
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2. Teesta Setalvad and spicy cooking
3. You can fool all of the people, all of the time
4. This is about Gujarat, not Teesta
5. Gilani, Durrani, Kiyani, Biryani and the butcher!
6. The Varun sting: who is not playing the communal card?
7. Varun Gandhi: Wounded tiger on the prowl

Varun Gandhi is going to get out of Etah jail on parole any moment, on orders of the Supreme Court. The Congress and the Samajwadi Party have both been saying that Mayawati had booked him under the NSA as part of an "understanding" with the BJP. As per them, by acting tough on him, she wanted to poach Mulayam Yadav's Muslim votes while the BJP thought that the Hindu vote would consolidate in its favour. But is that really what they actually believe?

It may be recalled that the sting done on Varun Gandhi had earlier taken a turn completely unexpected by the media and opponents of the BJP who had gone bonkers thinking that they had got a real issue to beat the BJP with. Thanks to the almost hysterical reactions of analysts and journalists who did not want him to "get away", Varun Gandhi actually became a star almost overnight in a manner that no had had thought he would. And, when his surrender in Pilibhit turned into a show that surprised even the BJP, with a sea of people turning up to cheer him, it appeared that the BJP had found a rallying point to make a dramatic comeback at least in UP.

Mayawati's decision to slap the draconian NSA on him while he was still in jail was greeted with silent approval and relief by all those who were alarmed by the turn of events. No one of note opposed this blatant misuse of the NSA only because it suited their political biases, just as their staunch opposition to a separate terror law had earlier. Everyone was thankful that he was out of the election campaign that they had foolishly electrified for him, and would be fighting the elections in total silence from behind the bars. It was taken for granted that Mayawati's advisory committee that was to review his arrest was not going to let him out till the election were over, at least.

No one had then thought that he would approach the Supreme Court and that the apex court would set him free. But it has, even though with a few conditions which effectively don't really matter. Suddenly, there is anger in TV studios born out of worry, even panic. No one will ever be caught admitting, but they all know better than most of us, that Varun on the loose, making even "sanitised" speeches, is going to be the force multiplier that can tilt the balance in favour of the BJP, even though the first phase of voting for 124 seats will be over today. No wonder some of them are not able to keep themselves from criticising the Supreme Court for releasing him and allowing him to make political speeches.

People out there know only too well that while everyone, including the Election Commission, had gone ballistic with Varun's hate speech that he still disputes, a string of speeches that have followed have hardly been covered in the media or given such air by politicians. The Railway Minister of India says that he would have crushed Varun Gandhi under a road roller; someone says that he will cut the hands that are raised against Muslims, another says that Muslims who vote for the BJP should be declared infidels. Does any one go to jail? Does the Election Commission ask their parties to not field them in the elections? The worst perhaps is that Sanjay Dutt tells Barkha Dutt in an exclusive interview that the was beaten by the police when he was in jail because his mother was a Muslim, and NDTV just buries that statement! It is only later when he repeats this elsewhere that cognisance is taken, but the media still glosses over it.

Prabhu Chawla, one of the few respected media stars who is known for his "Seedhi Baat" (Straight Talk), hit the nail on the head when he said in a discussion on Headlines Today a short while back that the BJP in UP was an "issueless, leaderless, rudderless" outfit till Varun Gandhi was thrust into the limelight and put on centre stage, if I may add, by an overenthusiastic media that is seen by many people as identifying with the Congress. He is the first Gandhi after Mrs Indira Gandhi to go to jail for political reasons. His grandmother was locked up by her political opponents after she was defeated in 1977; more than three decades later, her grandson has been put put him in jail by his political opponents by invoking a draconian provision of law that has not been used even against terrorists.

If indeed Mayawati had put Varun behind bars to damage the prospects of the Congress and the the SP, then both these parties and the media would have been crying hoarse about the shameless misuse of the NSA by her. And now that he is about to walk out of jail, all of them should pleased that the Supreme Court has spoiled her plans by dexterously ensuring that the rule of law prevails. But are they? Watch TV debates in the evening today. You will get the answer.

An unwise political incarceration has made Varun Gandhi a real leader, whether you and I like it or not. The wounded tiger, now much more dangerous than he was before he went to jail, is on the prowl again.

In two earlier posts, I had highlighted that the real, decisive IPL T20 tournament of these elections was being played in UP. With Varun Gandhi hitting the campaign trail again and the media trapped into analysing every twitch on his face, expect the atmosphere to be electrified in more ways than one. Will his presence lead to some sort of a swing in favour of the BJP in a sufficient number of constituencies yet to go to the polls? If it does and if the party increases its tally in UP by 20 seats to hit the 30 mark, a lot of smart alecs will have serious egg on their faces. And Advani might find that he is no longer the PM in waiting. At last.

UPDATE

Varun has been released. Here the video of him walking out of Etah jail.



Varun - a picture of defiance
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Readers may also read:
1. Say sorry to India Varun
2. The Varun Sting: who is not playing the communal card?
3. Rahul, Varun and the politics of hate
4. The Varun Fiasco:Congress scores another self goal
5. The real IPL T20 is on in UP!

India Retold is 300 posts old already. This post is one past that landmark. Time to say a big 'Thank You' to all of you whose support, both silent and vocal, has made this possible. The journey so far has been remarkable and extremely satisfying. Like many others who express their views in the blogosphere, when I started this journey I had absolutely no idea that I would be at it, 20 months later, as keen and enthusiastic as ever.

Thanks to the active participation of those of you who comment here and/or interact with me separately, my motivation to keep writing has not flagged. I have also been immensely encouraged by those who have been returning here repeatedly, even though they have not commented. Their visits speak loudly enough.

Of course I did - and still do - go through patches where I did not feel like writing anything at all, even stopping it altogether. But, then suddenly something would happen or I would read something somewhere that re-ignited that spark, without which writing would have become a dull chore and the output mechanical. I hope that spark stays here.

Thanks are also due to Blogger for providing this excellent platform to this dummy. Without it India Retold would perhaps have not even taken birth.

Jaswant Singh's "Mission Kandahar" has become the weakest point of the BJP's claim that the NDA government was tough on terror when it was in power earlier. It also makes hollow its promise of a similar toughness if it get back to power again. For the last few years, almost every single TV anchor, media star, analyst and politician has beaten the BJP with the Kandahar stick. And Advani has not helped his government's cause by claiming that he, as Home Minister, was not aware that the Foreign Minister was going to Kandahar with the terrorists. Vir Sanghvi has, in fact, gone to the extent of saying that it is "shameful that the BJP should use ‘tough on terror’ as a campaigning slogan".

Frankly, I find it surprising that this should have ever become an issue at all. Worse, I cannot believe that the strategists of the BJP have not been able to find the right answer to kill the issue, and keep appearing red-faced whenever it is raked up. And these days, with the election heat peaking, almost everyone is on the flight to Kandahar, and the BJP has been grounded. Rahul Gandhi has even gone to the extent of blaming LK Advani for buckling under pressure.

Why did Jaswant Singh go to Kandahar? Was it to escort terrorists, as is being dishonestly insinuated? Would he have gone there had Indian Airlines flight IC-814 with 154 hostages not been parked on the runway at Kandahar surrounded by heavily armed Taliban? India's Foreign Minister went there solely to ensure that the exchange deal was honoured by the Taliban. Considering the situation in Afghanistan then and the fact that the Taliban had no scruples whatsoever, it may well have happened that after the three terrorists were handed over to them, they might still not have released the passengers and made additional demands.

With 150 families and the now critical media and politicians then hounding the government to get the hostages back at any cost, would any government have been left with any choice but to trade terrorists? Particularly after a similar capitulation earlier to secure the release of Rubiya Sayed, daughter of India's then Home Minister, Mufti Mohammad Sayed?

The only issue in the whole drama is whether Jaswant Singh should have gone to Kandahar or sent a bureaucrat instead. That can be debated till the cows come home.

But the simple answer to that question is that India's Foreign Minister did not show cowardice by "escorting" terrorists but displayed immense courage by flying down himself to that extremely hostile and dangerous place to ensure that the Taliban could not further delay the release of the hostages under some pretext or the other. There was a real possibility of that happening had an official gone to Kandahar to see the agreed deal finally through.

Major Jaswant Singh put himself in the firing line to take on-the-spot decisions, had the Taliban shown treachery. His presence probably stumped them and their Pakistani masters; they would never have expected that India's Foreign Minister himself would get to the spot to scuttle their plans. He could have been taken hostage too; the Taliban were capable of doing anything, as we all know. It is due to the exemplary courage shown by him that all hostages were released and brought safely back to India.

Is this incident something that the NDA should be ashamed of? Would any other government have done any better? Would any other Foreign Minister or SPG/NSG protected politician exposed himself to such personal risk for the sake of 154 Indians? Let us get real.

Must Read: Without Superior Values, India Will Not Become Great
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The first Star News-Nielson opinion poll had predicted a clear win for the UPA which was seen as getting 257 seats to the NDA's 184. The second poll, however, shows a trend in favour of the NDA, with the UPA still in the lead 203 to 191, and the Congress and the BJP separated by just eight seats, 155-147.

The recent Tytler fiasco in Delhi and the latest news that Gujjar leader Colonel Kirori Singh Bainsla has joined the BJP in Rajasthan and is likely to be fielded by the party as a candidate for the Lok Sabha elections, may make a significant impact on the outcome of the elections in Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and parts of Uttar Pradesh.

But, the most important tournament of this election, the Indian Political League (IPL) T20 tournament, is being played played in UP between four major players, the Congress, BJP, SP and BSP. As I had explained in detail in my previous post on the subject, although each team theoretically has 80 "overs" to play with and take home, the ferocious battle being fought out there in the final run-up to the grand finale on May 16, 2009, is for 20 "overs". These are the ones that will most likely decide as to who will get that Big Trophy in Delhi. A gain/loss of 20 seats over what each party had got during the last elections, is going to prove critical in deciding the next occupant of the Prime Minister's chair.

To most analysts and pollsters, the decision of the Congress party to fight the elections alone and not in alliance with the SP seemed to be a mistake that the party should have avoided. I was one of the very few who had been arguing for a long time that only the SP would benefit from that alliance and that the Congress had to begin its revival in the state not by aligning with but by taking on the weaker of its two opponents who had taken away its voters.

An internal survey carried out by the BJP in UP shows that the Congress is actually benefitting in the state at the expense of the SP. In fact, as per GVL Narasinmha Rao, whose team carried out the survey, it may get even 15 seats, up from the nine it got last time. This is in stark contrasts to most opinion polls who have been projecting a drop in the number of its seats to as low as two. The latest Star News poll also shows the party getting just seven seats. When the internal survey of your key opponent shows you doing so much better than pollsters are predicting, there is little reason to doubt it.

If anything, the Congress might actually be poised to get more than 15 seats that the BJP's survey shows. The other significant trend shown by this survey is that the the BJP alone might notch up between 22 and 25 seats as against 10 that it won in 2004.

These findings, if correct, are extremely critical for two reasons. First, this leaves only around 40 seats in UP for the BSP and the SP. This means that both Mayawati and Mulayam are going to be in no position to either stake a clam for the post of PM should there be a hung Parliament or exercise the kind of veto power they are looking for in a supporting role, the kind that the Left enjoyed in the previous government.

Mayawati and Mulayam Yadav have lost this T20 tournament. There is no way that the BSP can get 20 seats more than the 19 it had last time, to emerge as the single largest party by far in the Lok Sabha after the Congress and the BJP. Similarly, the tally of the SP is going to fall sharply from the 36 that it had secured in 2004. It may even be down to half its strength.

The Congress is seen getting eight extra seats. Can the Congress exploit the Kalyan Singh generated anti-SP sentiment of the Muslims to woo more of them so that it can get close to 20 extra seats? The anachronistic manifesto released by the SP today talks of doing away with computers, English schools, farm equipment etc and promises to take the country back to 1947. That is surely something the Congress can use to scare voters away from the SP and to it.

The BJP, with 12 to 15 extra seats already apparently secured, seems best poised to get those 20 extra seats and win 30 on its own. If it does that, then not only will it comfortably overtake the Congress as the single largest party but it will also take the tally of the NDA well past the UPA and within striking distance of the magical number 272. The trend is already its friend.

The IPL T20 tournament in UP is nearing its climax. The final match is going to be clearly played between the two national parties, and both are showing signs of resurgence in the state. The one who can strain enough in the next few days to get around 20 extra seats will be the winner. Otherwise, it might well be a tie. The victor will then be decided by a post-poll "bowl out" that will undoubtedly see the worst kind of horse trading. Nobody outside the political arena wants that.

UPDATE 10:00 PM April 14

NDTV's opinion poll on UP has just been telecast. It is dramatically different! 40 seats to Mayawati, 20 to Mulayam, 12 to BJP and 8 to Congress! No one, it seems, has any accurate idea of how the people of UP are going to vote. NDTV's Rahul worship was in full display even here. Though the poll was about UP, there were three polls about Rahul alone! First was whether Rahul can revive the Congress in UP. 70% said "Yes". On a different question about the most popular leaders in the state, Mayawati was first, Mulayam second and Rajnath Singh third. Rahul was nowhere in picture. Despite that and despite the virtual decimation of the Congress there despite Rahul's efforts for seven years, he was voted as the hope of the Congress for UP. I don't know what to make of it.

The second question was whether Rahul will become PM one day. If I recall correctly, around 78% said "Yes". The third question, hold your breath, was whether he is ready to be PM now. 52% said "Yes"! Why was that question asked in the first place? Are we heading for a Kashmir type surprise should the Congress come to power?

Even DD was never so sycophantic! So much for a free and honest media. These guys seem to have no qualms!
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2. Congresss begins battle for revival in UP
3. The real SP that Rahul needs
4. Opinions, not opinion polls
5. Questions for Mr Manmohan Singh
6, Mulayam plans to take India 50 years back
7. NDTV sees Congress steaming ahead after Phase 2

A few days back , in a debate on Headlines Today on the opinion poll carried out by India Today, MJ Akbar said that the NDA would have been wiped out in Bihar had the Congress joined up with Laloo Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan in these elections. In fact he went on to say that the party had done the NDA "a huge, huge favour" and that had it been in an alliance, "in a sense, the national election might have been over". In a similar program on CNN-IBN on UP, Yogendra Yadav brought out that had the Congress and SP fought the elections together in the state, they would have together got more than 50 seats.

The India Today opinion poll predicts that the Congress will draw a blank in Bihar and will get seven seats in UP. In 2004, the party had won three and nine seats respectively in these two states.The Laloo-Paswan combine is likely to get 19 seats in Bihar, down six, and in UP, Mulayam Yadav's tally will be 29, also down six . Thus, thanks to the Congress fighting on its own, the "UPA" might lose more than 16 seats in UP and upwards of 14 seats in Bihar, if MJ Akbar's assessment is correct.

A loss of 30 seats is huge in today's scenario. Therefore, anyone will straight away deduce that by going alone, the Congress has committed nothing less than hara-kiri in these two states that send 120 MPs to the Lok Sabha. But is it really so? Would the national election actually have been over had the UPA allies fought together?

The Congress contested in only four seats in Bihar in 2004. This time it wanted just two more, but its erstwhile allies, alive to its sharp decline in the last five years due to its dependence on them, unilaterally offered it only the three seats it had won. In UP, Mulayam Yadav was a little more "generous". Although the Congress had won only nine seats on 2004, he was willing to offer it 17, almost double. But the Congress wanted no less than 24, which was not acceptable to Mulayam. Because of such humiliating treatment by clever and ambitious allies, the Congress was forced to go it alone.

Had the Congress swallowed the bitter pill and fought the elections as an alliance, what would it have really gained as a party? In Bihar it would have got three seats at best while in UP it would probably have just about got into double figures, assuming the Mulayam would have honestly transferred his voters to all Congress candidates. This means that as against the 13 odd seats that the Congress would have got in alliance in these two states, alone it is still likely to get around seven, a loss of just about six seats.

If there is one single lesson that the Congress needs to learn from the experience of leading the UPA government, it is that if there is a powerful ally who is in a position to single-handedly ensure the survival or defeat of a coalition, it is a recipe for disaster. The government is then almost completely dependent on the whims and fancies of such an ally and governance has to be sacrificed almost daily along many dimensions simply to remain in power. For all their faults, it must be stated the the communists who had the UPA government in their suffocating grasp, pushed through their agenda almost wholly on their ideology and remained otherwise scrupulously honest.

Can the same be said about the likes of Mulayam Yadav, Mayawati, Laloo Yadav, Jayalalitha, Sharad Pawar etc?

Therefore, had the Congress entered into alliances in UP and Bihar, national elections might have been over, as MJ Akbar says, but not necessarily in the manner that he thinks they would have been. The Great Betrayal of Naveen Patnaik and Laloo Yadav should open the eyes of the two national parties to one hard reality: all allies are opponents in waiting. Therefore, ways and means have to be constantly found to weaken them too.

Only a fool will believe that a Mulayam Yadav with upwards of the 40 seats that he would have got in alliance with the Congress would have remained a humble and trustworthy partner of the party after the elections. He has already entered into an alliance with Kalyan Singh of Babri Masjid fame. A few months back he had also said that an alliance with the BJP was possible if the latter gave up its demand for a Ram Mandir in Ayodhya and for abrogation of Article 370 of the constitution. And now he and Laloo Yadav are talking of a great Yadav alliance.

In Bihar too, an alliance would have strengthened only the deceitful Laloo Yadav and the chameleon Ram Vilas Paswan, not the Congress. Paswan, it may be recalled, was a minister in the NDA government before he turned "secular" on the eve of the 2004 elections. Laloo Yadav, besides befriending Mulayam Yadav, is now also making overtures to the Third Front, besides claiming that the Congress is just another constituent of the UPA.

A look at West Bengal will help see things more clearly. There, the situation is radically different. In 2004, the Congress had fought alone and won six seats, while the Left had swept the state, winning 35 seats. Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress, then an ally of the BJP, got only one seat. This time, the Congress is contesting in 12 seats in alliance with Mamata. Although it is not likely to win even one extra seat, it will be able to breach the Left citadel with the help of Mamata who is expected to win around 10 seats, not enough to mount a serious threat to the Congress later. More significantly, the tally of the Left will come down to 25 seats or less. This, coupled with the expected victory of the Congress in Kerala, is going to leave the Left much weakened with around 35 seats, against the 59 that they had in the previous Lok Sabha.

West Bengal perfectly illustrates the point that it is much better for the Congress to have two weak allies/opponents rather than one strong ally with a veto power in a situation where it is not able to get a majority on its own.

That is why the Congress may actually have unwittingly played a masterstroke by going it alone in Bihar and UP. One does not need great imagination to visualise the havoc that the Yadav combo of Laloo and Mulayam with 60 plus seats would have caused to a UPA government. If the Congress now emerges as the single largest party then not only will it easily form the next government, but it will also be in a position to fend off threats and blackmails from these alliance partners against whom it is fighting because none of them will be strong enough to threaten the government on their own. Therefore, as long as the BJP does not beat it as the largest single party, it will be, paradoxically, serve the interest of the Congress if the BJP takes away as many seats as possible from its allies in these two states.

Yes, there is a tiny risk that the the BJP might emerge emerge as the largest party solely because of the six-odd seats that the Congress is going to lose in UP and Bihar by going it alone there. But this is a risk that the Congress has to learn how to take from now on, if it wants to remain a national party that wants to meaningfully lead any coalition government that it may form in future. Otherwise, it will by and by completely disappear electorally from the states that it is weak in, and will sooner rather than later find itself supporting a government led by a much smaller but numerically powerful ally/allies who can dictate terms to it.

If one thinks of it, exactly the same applies to the other national party, the BJP.
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